Texas Winter 2017-2018

Winter Weather Discussion

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bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#6921 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:49 pm

Brent wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:Apparently no one has seen the Longer Range ECMWF EPS centered on February 4th. Brrrr


Details please lol


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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#6922 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Jan 20, 2018 11:16 pm

Dang, that looks really good! :uarrow:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#6923 Postby Haris » Sat Jan 20, 2018 11:51 pm

Looks like the GFS is getting a bit carried away with the upcoming pattern! Check out 00z! LOL.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#6924 Postby Brent » Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:59 am

GFS has a winter storm on February 2nd

mostly south of Dallas it appears
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#6925 Postby Lagreeneyes03 » Sun Jan 21, 2018 5:46 am

Brent wrote:GFS has a winter storm on February 2nd

mostly south of Dallas it appears


Of course it is.......... :mad: :mad: :mad:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#6926 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Jan 21, 2018 6:36 am

Just want to leave this here :wink:

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#6927 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jan 21, 2018 8:45 am

These long-range charts should be no big surprise. I told you I'm working on a Texas winter weather event for mid-February.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#6928 Postby orangeblood » Sun Jan 21, 2018 9:19 am

:uarrow: Yep, some MAJOR cross-polar flow showing up on the long range models!! Huge chunks of that record-breaking Siberian air are funneling directly over to our side of the world :cold:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#6929 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Jan 21, 2018 9:29 am

Eastern areas upgraded up "Slight"

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#6930 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Jan 21, 2018 9:34 am

This includes a TOR 5%

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#6931 Postby aggiecutter » Sun Jan 21, 2018 9:44 am

:uarrow: 6 degrees and 3" of snow to severe weather in just 5 days.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#6932 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Jan 21, 2018 10:14 am

Models are really wanting to amp up the MJO late in the cycle

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#6933 Postby Tireman4 » Sun Jan 21, 2018 10:56 am

wxman57 wrote:These long-range charts should be no big surprise. I told you I'm working on a Texas winter weather event for mid-February.



How about the whole state, sir?
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#6934 Postby Portastorm » Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:08 am

Let's see ...

Cross-polar flow: check

Cold trough over the middle of the CONUS: check

Upper level energy to the southwest of Texas: check

What's not to like here?!

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#6935 Postby gpsnowman » Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:17 am

:uarrow: Someone correct me if I am wrong, but does that map have a McFarland look to it? I see a slight backwards "S" with Pacific ridging and the central trough.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#6936 Postby orangeblood » Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:24 am

gpsnowman wrote::uarrow: Someone correct me if I am wrong, but does that map have a McFarland look to it? I see a slight backwards "S" with Pacific ridging and the central trough.


Not quite yet, you need that northeast pacific ridge axis to poke into northwestern Canada while the trough axis stays back over the southwest...the potential is there that's for sure!
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#6937 Postby gpsnowman » Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:26 am

orangeblood wrote:
gpsnowman wrote::uarrow: Someone correct me if I am wrong, but does that map have a McFarland look to it? I see a slight backwards "S" with Pacific ridging and the central trough.


Not quite yet, you need that northeast pacific ridge axis to poke into northwestern Canada while the trough axis stays back over the southwest...the potential is there that's for sure!

I see what you mean. Thanks orangeblood.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#6938 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:39 am

HRRR is trending slightly further west with convective initiation today. Will be interesting to see if the spc reflects that in their next update
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#6939 Postby Sambucol » Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:40 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:HRRR is trending slightly further west with convective initiation today. Will be interesting to see if the spc reflects that in their next update

Is that good for Texas?
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#6940 Postby dhweather » Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:52 pm

Of course we know that models at 384 hours are for entertainment purposes only.

That said, the 12Z GFS at 384, Incredible cold all the way down to SoCal. To put this in perspective, all time record low in LA is 28, set in 2013 and 1949.

Meanwhile, the Metroplex checks in around 70.

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