Texas Winter 2017-2018

[wxman57]

What are you cooking up for this summer when you come back to your former self. I will take a dry/hot summer vs humid/hot if you can order it? Just some good spring rains to get the watering holes in the Hill Country in good supply before you flip the switch , please. Especially Lake Travis and the Frio.

I'm sure that everything will balance out - don't worry.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

What are you cooking up for this summer when you come back to your former self. I will take a dry/hot summer vs humid/hot if you can order it? Just some good spring rains to get the watering holes in the Hill Country in good supply before you flip the switch , please. Especially Lake Travis and the Frio.

I'm sure that everything will balance out - don't worry.

No Tropical Systems of any kind in that balancing act. Not even a Tropical Wave. The upcoming renewals of Flood and Wind Storm insurance around these parts are going to cause a storm of it's own.

[wxman57]

My post last February 10th to Portastorm:

"I DO think that there will be significant snow across Texas NEXT winter. Even in Austin..."

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=117967&p=2574329#p2574329

I'm still working on the DFW area. Their more significant snow will come in February.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Wxman57 totally called this winter. Spot on. La nina can bring down the big cold, but i didnt expect it to be like this. Need Nina to start going away in march though. Worst summers ever.

Looking like a bust of some sorts for the high here. Still 25 in Missouri City.

Also, some are pointing to a possible SSW event around Feb 1, the cold would take a couple weeks. Any thoughts on this?

[PineyWoods]

My post last February 10th to Portastorm:

"I DO think that there will be significant snow across Texas NEXT winter. Even in Austin..."

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=117967&p=2574329#p2574329

I'm still working on the DFW area. Their more significant snow will come in February.

You called it right on the available moisture and amount of snow for Tyler. Sure enough we got about 1-2 inches. I have to admit I would like to see another snow event before winter ends.
I just hope that we won't pay for this come summer.

[Portastorm]

My post last February 10th to Portastorm:

"I DO think that there will be significant snow across Texas NEXT winter. Even in Austin..."

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=117967&p=2574329#p2574329

I'm still working on the DFW area. Their more significant snow will come in February.

I know, I know ... I have said publicly several times here that you have delivered the goods -- and then some -- for Austin. Look, I have even changed my avatar in your honor, sir.

[bubba hotep]

East based Nina, I think our chances are good that it does.

The cold anomalies are not that expansive, there is a lot of warm water out there. This is helping maintain convection more so than would be expected during sone other Nina configurations. The QBO switch is also more favorable for convection vs the past couple of years.

https://image.ibb.co/hYnWCR/IMG_20180117_102452.jpg

You also don't see the MJO with amplitude and chugging along during ENSO events. In a true winter of sort the MJO would loop and hover the warm phases thus no real MJO and just background state. We've seen sig MJO movement this winter.

This is probably because of the expansiveness of the warm anomalies vs. other Nina years. This current MJO is also working on the background state as the suppressed phase pushes across the Nina signal.

[Hookem5Vac]

Are any of these future events in late Jan and early Feb going to make it to SETX? Specifically the Beaumont area?

[weatherdude1108]

It is a little eerie looking at these old conversations. Even mentions the Houston Hurricane Workshop lunch in June (prior to Harvey in August). Anyway, off-topic. Sorry.


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Quote






#4499 Postby wxman57 » Fri Feb 10, 2017 10:42 am




Tireman4 wrote:



wxman57 wrote:
I DO think that there will be significant snow across Texas NEXT winter. Even in Austin...


Oh that is just low...LOL....Right below the knees...Goodness gracious..

Hey, I'm just trying to give you something to look forward to. Perhaps Portastorm will join us for the Houston Hurricane Workshop lunch in June.

[srainhoutx]

Wednesday midday Update from Jeff:

Coldest low temperatures in over a two decades recorded across the region this morning

Travel conditions are slowly improving, but many overpasses and bridges continue to have issues.

While some freeways are showing improvements, others have been slow with ice removal this morning and many of the elevated flyover ramps continue to be completely ice covered and closed. Still have ice an actual surface streets that are shaded from the radiation of the sun.

While conditions are expected to be significantly improved on Thursday morning, cannot rule out patches of ice where melt water does not evaporate today and refreezes tonight.

Temperatures will warm above freezing across the region over the next 1-1.5 hours and then into the upper 30’s this afternoon which should help to accelerate the ice melt along with strong midday solar radiation.

Expect most of the ice to melt this afternoon, but some patches may remain especially in areas that are shaded and any residual water will refreeze rapidly this evening as temperatures fall quickly into the mid 20’s.

As for lows tonight, visible images show cloud cover already increasing from the SW ahead of a weak disturbance that will cross the region on Thursday. Expect lows tonight to fall into the mid 20’s over much of the region, but where clouds increase the latest NE of a line from Huntsville to Liberty lows will likely fall into the 12-16 degree range…so another hard freeze warning will likely be required for portions of the area again for tonight.

Given incredibly cold conditions this morning suspect many tropical plants have not survived this event and main focus for tonight should be potential for water pipes to freeze along with pets and livestock. Persons should limit outdoor exposure to small amounts of time.

Much more significant warm up will occur on Thursday with highs creeping into the low to mid 40’s under more cloud cover.

Wednesday Morning Lows:

Crockett: 10
College Station: 15
BUSH IAH: 19 (coldest reading since 1996)
Hobby: 19 (New record low)
Galveston: 25
Conroe: 14
Brenham: 16
Stafford: 19
Rosenberg: 20
Aldine: 15
Montgomery: 14
Freeport: 24
Livingston: 15
Bellville: 15
Huntsville: 13
Tomball: 15
Wharton: 19
Sugar Land: 20
Bay City: 21
Palacios: 22
Caldwell: 11
Sargent: 21
Matagorda: 21
Damon: 19
Weimar: 18
Columbus: 16
Eagle Lake: 17
Giddings: 15
Cleveland: 17
Victoria: 22

Other:
Melvin (W of Brady): 1
Brownwood: 2
Brady: 5
Menard: 3
Mason: 5
Llano: 9
Dripping Springs: 12
Austin: 15
San Marcos: 18
Georgetown: 13
Smithville: 16
Corpus Christi: 28

[Lagreeneyes03]

My post last February 10th to Portastorm:

"I DO think that there will be significant snow across Texas NEXT winter. Even in Austin..."

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=117967&p=2574329#p2574329

I'm still working on the DFW area. Their more significant snow will come in February.

What part of February? Please not when I'm gone for the Daytona 500...I missed the 2010 snow because I was gone, and we froze our butts off in Florida, it was only 57 on race day.

[Brent]

My post last February 10th to Portastorm:

"I DO think that there will be significant snow across Texas NEXT winter. Even in Austin..."

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=117967&p=2574329#p2574329

I'm still working on the DFW area. Their more significant snow will come in February.

What part of February? Please not when I'm gone for the Daytona 500...I missed the 2010 snow because I was gone, and we froze our butts off in Florida, it was only 57 on race day.

hey someone else who missed that snow...

I'm going out of town again Feb 15-20 so probably then

[JDawg512]

Almost 12:30p.m. and it's still 31 degrees here at the Ice Cave! On clear a sunny day no less.

I'm really worried about my palms. I don't mind it getting below freezing occasionally but this will cause wide spread damage to a lot of the vegitation across the state including stressing native species. It's not just matter of loss of sensitive plants, we are also talking about money value as well which I won't even attempt to calculate large scale. For me if my palms die, considering their size and age, that's about a 7-8 thousand dollar loss. The Texas Sabal may be able to make it through since they are cold hardy and can grow as far north as DFW but my California Fan might be doomed.

[JDawg512]

And I'm still waiting for this ice to melt!

[Yukon Cornelius]

Almost 12:30p.m. and it's still 31 degrees here at the Ice Cave! On clear a sunny day no less.

I'm really worried about my palms. I don't mind it getting below freezing occasionally but this will cause wide spread damage to a lot of the vegitation across the state including stressing native species. It's not just matter of loss of sensitive plants, we are also talking about money value as well which I won't even attempt to calculate large scale. For me if my palms die, considering their size and age, that's about a 7-8 thousand dollar loss. The Texas Sabal may be able to make it through since they are cold hardy and can grow as far north as DFW but my California Fan might be doomed.

My dad has palms up this way and he has to wrap them every year and put Xmas lights around the trunks and spotlights at the bottom of the trunks. His Texas sabals usually do pretty good into the teens but the Florida sabals suffer. A few years ago we hit single digits similar to this cold spell and he lost al of the foliage out of all of them but they did end up coming back. Good luck with them!

[jaguars_22]

it looks like some very limited moisture could come across Mexico tonight?? Sometimes these things can cause surprises... only a wish

[Ralph's Weather]

I still have a couple inches in the ground in most spots and big icicles on the roof.

[weatherdude1108]

Almost 12:30p.m. and it's still 31 degrees here at the Ice Cave! On clear a sunny day no less.

I'm really worried about my palms. I don't mind it getting below freezing occasionally but this will cause wide spread damage to a lot of the vegitation across the state including stressing native species. It's not just matter of loss of sensitive plants, we are also talking about money value as well which I won't even attempt to calculate large scale. For me if my palms die, considering their size and age, that's about a 7-8 thousand dollar loss. The Texas Sabal may be able to make it through since they are cold hardy and can grow as far north as DFW but my California Fan might be doomed.

My dad has palms up this way and he has to wrap them every year and put Xmas lights around the trunks and spotlights at the bottom of the trunks. His Texas sabals usually do pretty good into the teens but the Florida sabals suffer. A few years ago we hit single digits similar to this cold spell and he lost al of the foliage out of all of them but they did end up coming back. Good luck with them!

Hope your palms are okay. Back in 2013, we had a really hard freeze (down to 14), and both of my Sagos turned peach, and lost all their fronds. I know Sagos are technically Cycads, not palms. But the Sago trunks were without leaves well into Spring, almost Summer. My neighbor's property is just the other side of one of them. He was even wondering if it had survived or not. They eventually grew back leaves, and were even more shapely and beautiful than before that freeze, and I had even covered them in that white nursery burlap.

I don't bother covering them anymore. It got to 17 this morning, and I notice the tips of the leaves are that tan color (from the previous 21 degrees it got to a few weeks or so ago). I had called the nursery when they lost the leaves. They said if the trunk itself is soft and squishy, it is in trouble. If trunk is still hard solid, it is fine. They were both solid.

Not sure about the palms, but as far as Sagos, my dad thought he heard they could survive down to 10 degrees, but didn't want me to quote him on that.

[Haris]

Alright everyone, I am already bored of the weather here in Austin, LOL. I need a good 1-3” snowstorm here ! We have a chance on Feb right ? How’s it looking long range after this stretch of dry warm weather

[wxman57]

My post last February 10th to Portastorm:

"I DO think that there will be significant snow across Texas NEXT winter. Even in Austin..."

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=117967&p=2574329#p2574329

I'm still working on the DFW area. Their more significant snow will come in February.

What part of February? Please not when I'm gone for the Daytona 500...I missed the 2010 snow because I was gone, and we froze our butts off in Florida, it was only 57 on race day.

Mid month, between the 7th and 20th. I cannot account for your travels.