Texas Winter 2017-2018

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bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8661 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Feb 17, 2018 2:45 pm

The Euro is just relentless, 12z once again showing 8-12"+ for the DFW and then at D10 it has another massive storm dropping into the SW:

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8662 Postby orangeblood » Sat Feb 17, 2018 4:05 pm

With the NAM coming into it's strike zone for Wednesday, things are starting to look a little more interesting...Front is barreling south with OKC already below freezing at 06Z Wedneday (faster than all other guidance).

Lots of blocking over the top towards the end of the 12Z EPS run to start March
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8663 Postby Brent » Sat Feb 17, 2018 4:58 pm

flurries just started here in NYC... forecasting 4-6" by morning
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8664 Postby gpsnowman » Sat Feb 17, 2018 5:21 pm

Brent wrote:flurries just started here in NYC... forecasting 4-6" by morning

Pictures Brent, or it didn't happen. :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8665 Postby Brent » Sat Feb 17, 2018 7:48 pm

I was in midtown wasnt sticking yet took the subway to the upper west side and its a winter wonderland!!!

I'll have some pictures later
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8666 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Feb 17, 2018 10:31 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:12z Euro EPS and 18z GFS both trended wetter over the next week for N. Texas. Also, I wouldn't rule out a winter wx threat for parts of Texas by the end of next week. There will be some decently cold air around and lots of energy coming out of the SW. Just need to get the timing right. Beyond that, I see a lot of potential during the 1st half of March.


I still see some potential for next week and am holding firm on the 1st half of March.


Hmmm....

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8667 Postby Ntxw » Sat Feb 17, 2018 11:06 pm

Almost 2015ing. Almost..feels that way

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8668 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Feb 17, 2018 11:17 pm

Ntxw wrote:Almost 2015ing. Almost..feels that way



That is one of the draw backs, systems are modeled to be so frequent over the next couple of weeks that warm moist return flow starts eroding the cold air almost as soon as it arrives. As you have pointed out, we need to take any and all rain and be happy with it! It will be interesting if we transition to neutral or nino much faster than planned and we end up with a wet Spring/Summer.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8669 Postby Brent » Sat Feb 17, 2018 11:26 pm

Snow in Central Park tonight

Crazy theres almost none that i saw coming back in midtown or Lower Manhattan

Image

Image

Image
Last edited by Brent on Sat Feb 17, 2018 11:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8670 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Feb 17, 2018 11:36 pm

Brent wrote:Snow in Central Park tonight

Crazy theres almost none that i saw coming back in midtown or Lower Manhattan

http://i64.tinypic.com/iqdjdt.jpg

http://i68.tinypic.com/2ed1umg


Awesome!
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8671 Postby Quixotic » Sun Feb 18, 2018 12:01 am

Ntxw wrote:Almost 2015ing. Almost..feels that way

http://i66.tinypic.com/20tj792.gif


Oh man I wish. May 2015 is the most anomalous month precipitation wise in DFW history.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8672 Postby Quixotic » Sun Feb 18, 2018 12:02 am

Brent wrote:Snow in Central Park tonight

Crazy theres almost none that i saw coming back in midtown or Lower Manhattan

http://i64.tinypic.com/iqdjdt.jpg

http://i68.tinypic.com/2ed1umg

https://preview.ibb.co/hNH3an/20180217_210405.jpg


Ugh. So jealous.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8673 Postby JDawg512 » Sun Feb 18, 2018 12:55 am

Getting quite energized for the next few days.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8674 Postby downsouthman1 » Sun Feb 18, 2018 1:42 am

:uarrow: Like I said, a spring pattern.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8675 Postby weatherdude1108 » Sun Feb 18, 2018 7:50 am

Great writeup by the EWX this morning.


000
FXUS64 KEWX 181008
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
408 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...

No major impacts expected this period as we gear up for an active
period Tuesday into Wednesday. For today and tomorrow, expected
scattered light to moderate showers at times with warming conditions
as a warm front shifts north this evening.

Synoptic pattern this morning reveals a cut-off low pressure system
off the coast of Baja California with a developing longwave trough
diving south along the Pacific NW coast. This is the system and
resultant influences that will drive our weather over the next
several days. A stalled front is located just south of San Antonio
towards the coast where dewpoint differences are 10-15F degrees.
Surface winds remain north this morning but will become east and then
southeasterly through the day as the warm front shifts north. A
compact shortwave will traverse the Big Bend that could aid greater
shower coverage across the Escarpment and portions of the northern
Hill Country.

Expect clouds to remain in place through the overnight and into Monday
when scattered light drizzle occurs again tomorrow morning with lows
only falling into the low to mid 60s. Scattered to isolated light
showers will continue through most of the day as weak to little mid-
to upper-level forcing will be present along with a mid-level
capping inversion.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Saturday)...

An elevated impact window for localized flooding and isolated
pockets of gusty winds associated with strong thunderstorms appears
possible Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning for portions of
South-Central Texas. One to two inches of rainfall is likely with
isolated pockets of 3 to 4 inches could be possible across portions
of the Escarpment, Hill Country and east along the I-35 corridor into
the Coast Plains. Some of the stronger thunderstorms could produce
gusty winds and small hail if they develop before the frontal passage
Wednesday afternoon. higher confidence exists on pockets of heavy
rain with low to moderate confidence on strong thunderstorms.

By late Monday night into Tuesday morning, ample and deep moisture
will be present over South-Central Texas as PWATs climb into the
1.3-1.6" range from west to east. These values are near the 99
percentile for moisture for this time of year with reflective surface
dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. The strong aforementioned trough
over the Pacific NW right now will pivot southeast into the
inter-mountain west and place Texas in stronger SW H5-H3 flow as
moderate strength embedded impulses eject across the region. ECMWF
and GFS suggest the first such impulse will shift across the region
early Tuesday morning as mid-level lapse rates steepen. With 0-6km
shear near 50 knots, an organized cluster of storms could develop
across the Escarpment/Hill Country west of I-35. This could be the
first round of storms with the second possibly occurring Tuesday
evening and into early Wednesday morning ahead of the frontal passage
Wednesday afternoon. The evolution of what occurs Tuesday morning
could impact convection possibilities that afternoon if a strong
enough cold pool develops or if it remains more isolated farther
west. The far reaches of NAM and hi-res model runs are not picking up
on this initial activity that is suggested by the global models and
will need to monitor evolution.

By Tuesday afternoon and evening, the consensus of models indicate a
weakening inversion and steepening lapse rates with 30-40 knots deep
layer shear. Worst case scenario would be strong training
thunderstorms that could produce localized heavy rainfall leading to
flash flooding concerns. Best case scenario is the cap remains too
strong or I-35 corridor is undercut by a cold pool from earlier
morning convection. Think the most likely solution falls in between
these possibilities as the question remains on when additional
impulses of enhanced dynamic lift stream across the region. Signals
are not there yet for a moderate to high impact event but localized
heavy rain resulting in some flooding seems plausible at this time.

Rain and thunderstorm chances will go up even more to essentially
100% by Wednesday morning for the eastern 2/3rds of south-central
Texas as a cold front approaches the region from the north. Once the
front passes Wednesday, rainfall rates will decrease quickly given
the removal of moisture and instability. The impact window will close
with the frontal passage.

By late week, low to moderate rain chances continue as over-running
pattern with southwest flow continues over the surface cold layer.
A warm front is expected to return by Friday as warmer temperatures
and moisture spread north. While light to scattered showers will be
possible each of these days, the greater coverage and intensity of
rain should remain north and east of this area of Texas.

&&
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8676 Postby Ntxw » Sun Feb 18, 2018 8:32 am

All models showing a winter storm (ice mostly) NW of DFW in nw Tx to western Oklahoma this Wednesday.

Lots of rain still

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8677 Postby gpsnowman » Sun Feb 18, 2018 8:56 am

Nice pics Brent, you lucky dog. You got your fix. Like Al Pacino in Panic in Needle Park.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8678 Postby EnnisTx » Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:38 am

Is there a dislike button? So unfair to all of us snow lovers.... Xanax hear I come......
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8679 Postby srainhoutx » Sun Feb 18, 2018 12:22 pm

Sunday morning briefing from Jeff:

Threat for heavy rainfall will increase this week.

Weak frontal boundary continues to waffle across the region this morning with dewpoints in the 50’s north of the boundary and in the 60’s south of the boundary over the coastal waters. Lowering surface pressures in the eastern slopes of the Colorado Rockies today will induce this surface boundary near the coast on a northward movement resulting in a very warm and humid air mass spreading across the region tonight into Monday. Sea fog bank that has plagued the coastal areas for nearly a week now…will continue as warm and humid incoming air mass slides over the top of the cold nearshore waters.

Upper air pattern will become increasingly favorable for periods of showers and thunderstorms this week as SW flow aloft combines with a stalling frontal boundary, numerous disturbances aloft, and hefty moisture levels. Modification of the current air mass will begin in earnest on Monday and PWS will rise to near 1.5 inches if not higher by late Tuesday into Wednesday which is approaching maximum values for this time of year. A surface cool front will slowly progress southward into SE TX likely early Wednesday and then slow and stall over the area. SW flow aloft will bring copious moisture from the Pacific along with disturbances aloft that will ride along the front producing numerous showers and thunderstorms.

Main focus will be on the period from Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday night when the threat for sustained training of thunderstorms appears most possible. Small scale details still need to be worked out…for example where the frontal boundary actually stalls…to determine what areas may be a greatest risk for heavy rainfall. While global models have highest rainfall amounts aimed at the ARKLATX region, the parameters across SE TX by mid week certainly look to support heavy rainfall.

Rainfall totals of 1-3 inches will be possible Tuesday-Thursday with isolated higher amounts under any sustained training of cells. Given grounds are already wet from recent rainfall and vegetation cover remains at a minimum…run-off will be maximized. Additionally, this rain event will be fairly widespread across much of the eastern half of TX and rises on area rivers will be possible…some locations possibly to flood stage.

Hard pressed to push this next front off the coast and not sure any areas will ever get into any of the cooler air. Soupy Gulf air mass looks poised to make a rapid return by late in the week and with that…the dreaded sea fog along the coast and a chance of showers inland.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8680 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Feb 18, 2018 12:27 pm

HRRR kicks up the intensity with this cluster as they move across DFW, but either way, looks like some more rain for the area today.

Image
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