Texas Winter 2017-2018

[vbhoutex]

Take what NOAA says with a grain of salt... La Nina's tend to be warmer and dryer overall but has brought some of the coldest cold snaps the DFW N Texas and its fair share of winter stoms. They are pretty robotic with their long range forecasts. Remember when they said winter 15-16 would be cooler? They were wrong in fact it was very warm that winter with only a TRACE of snow.

The CPC seasonal WINTER outlook is no better than 50% accurate which oddly enough is the same % of the Old Farmers Almanac winter outlook.

Id put money on us either having a warm winter or a cold winter.

Best I can tell from the early indicators and forecasts, WE ARE GOING TO HAVE "WINTER". Now, can someone define "WINTER' for me?

[Brent]

The CPC seasonal WINTER outlook is no better than 50% accurate which oddly enough is the same % of the Old Farmers Almanac winter outlook.

Id put money on us either having a warm winter or a cold winter.

Best I can tell from the early indicators and forecasts, WE ARE GOING TO HAVE "WINTER". Now, can someone define "WINTER' for me?

a day or two of cold?

[weathaguyry]

Id put money on us either having a warm winter or a cold winter.

Best I can tell from the early indicators and forecasts, WE ARE GOING TO HAVE "WINTER". Now, can someone define "WINTER' for me?

a day or two of cold?

1. Winter- noun, The period of the year when Texas will definitely get multiple snow and ice storms, and temperatures below 50 degrees every single day throughout the whole state

[vbhoutex]

Best I can tell from the early indicators and forecasts, WE ARE GOING TO HAVE "WINTER". Now, can someone define "WINTER' for me?

a day or two of cold?

1. Winter- noun, The period of the year when Texas will definitely get multiple snow and ice storms, and temperatures below 50 degrees every single day throughout the whole state

One of the best jokes I've seen in a long time!!

[amawea]

Best I can tell from the early indicators and forecasts, WE ARE GOING TO HAVE "WINTER". Now, can someone define "WINTER' for me?

a day or two of cold?

1. Winter- noun, The period of the year when Texas will definitely get multiple snow and ice storms, and temperatures below 50 degrees every single day throughout the whole state

2. How long are Texas winters, Answer: 1 day

[Ralph's Weather]

The long range models generally are showing a Aleutian based PO ridge and some troughiness SW of CA for the winter. The best part of this to me is this should, for the most part, prevent cold shots from sliding too far east, and if the stay west with troughiness off of Mexico we should get some moisture at least. There will definitely be times where the eastern ridge bakes us though. Looks like we are in for a roller coaster of a winter with us going from 80 to 10 to 80 in a period of days.

[Portastorm]

The long range models generally are showing a Aleutian based PO ridge and some troughiness SW of CA for the winter. The best part of this to me is this should, for the most part, prevent cold shots from sliding too far east, and if the stay west with troughiness off of Mexico we should get some moisture at least. There will definitely be times where the eastern ridge bakes us though. Looks like we are in for a roller coaster of a winter with us going from 80 to 10 to 80 in a period of days.

I think you're generally on target. While things will average out warmer-than-normal and drier-than-normal, I believe we will have at least several opportunities this winter at big time cold and frozen precip stretching well south into the state. Once that jet stream buckles, it's LOOK OUT BELOW! It won't happen often but when it does, it'll get our attention.

[vbhoutex]

Does "WINTER" exist in Texas? 93f in DFW today? Are you kidding me? Mid 80s in Houston? Normal is 77f? Give me some hope!!

[Ralph's Weather]

Does "WINTER" exist in Texas? 93f in DFW today? Are you kidding me? Mid 80s in Houston? Normal is 77f? Give me some hope!!

Even in last year's torch we got down to 13. This winter we should have numerous cold blasts with warmth in between.

[Portastorm]

Do you like those very technical seasonal forecasts? If so, here's one to check out:

http://m.uploadedit.com/bbtc/1509722707103.pdf

This person is an enthusiast and not a professional met but he/she clearly knows some things. Not sure how accurate it will be but I will say the thoughts in this forecast are fairly similar to Larry Cosgrove's forecast for winter issued last weekend. Seems like January may be the best month for us to experience a good wintry event or two.

Enjoy the reading and if y'all see other forecasts for winter, post 'em in this thread.

[Ntxw]

Do you like those very technical seasonal forecasts? If so, here's one to check out:

http://m.uploadedit.com/bbtc/1509722707103.pdf

This person is an enthusiast and not a professional met but he/she clearly knows some things. Not sure how accurate it will be but I will say the thoughts in this forecast are fairly similar to Larry Cosgrove's forecast for winter issued last weekend. Seems like January may be the best month for us to experience a good wintry event or two.

Enjoy the reading and if y'all see other forecasts for winter, post 'em in this thread.

Thank you for sharing that! They seem to know their stuff and it is worth every penny to read. You don't see many use the NPO domain (EPO) as a forecasting tool in seasonal outlook but here they have done their homework! Bravo

[CaptinCrunch]

Do you like those very technical seasonal forecasts? If so, here's one to check out:

http://m.uploadedit.com/bbtc/1509722707103.pdf

This person is an enthusiast and not a professional met but he/she clearly knows some things. Not sure how accurate it will be but I will say the thoughts in this forecast are fairly similar to Larry Cosgrove's forecast for winter issued last weekend. Seems like January may be the best month for us to experience a good wintry event or two.

Enjoy the reading and if y'all see other forecasts for winter, post 'em in this thread.

Yes, thank you for sharing this information, and as I read it I found several of his "Key" notes to be very intresting regarding QBO progression. The winters he noted 83-84, 00-01 are 2 of the coldest La Nina winters (for NTX), he also noted 62-63, and 81-82 were similar, both of which were colder than average neutral winters. 11-12 was the odd year out as it was top 3 warmest La Nina winters for NTX.

Another intresting area was his take on the AO/NAO with regards to the solar cycle/flux, in his charts he highlighted 5 years in Yellow, 1963, 1977, 1987, 1996 and 2010, ALL cold winters for NTX.

The yellow highlighted years are the 5 years with the combination of: 1) the frontend of
the -QBO (either Neutral & Falling or Negative & Falling), and 2) solar flux minimum.
2018 is also highlighted as the anticipation is that we will add a 6th year to that list this
winter. For the 5 highlighted winters, 16 of 20 months had a -AO/NAO, the highest
percentage for any QBO/Solar Flux combo. The stars aligned during the 09-10 winter as
all solar parameters were very low in concert with a frontend -QBO

He noted 95-96

"QBO wasn’t as far into the negative phase as the other highlighted years"

this was also a cold winter.

Very Intresting indeed!

[Ntxw]

With the latest ONI ERSSTv5 update the NIna will have started pretty late, if at all. The late start weak NInas I plotted out of curiosity. Pretty close to Nina composites of cold north (western US also) and warmer east and south. NW trough, SE ridge configure is pretty prevalent. Texas is in the swing zone between the two. This is fairly simple not considering the upper pattern and only ENSO SST anomalies.



QPF is pretty bleak



1984-1985 is heavy with the cooler anomalies our way the most though so that's the one analog you want to work. That winter is historic for the January blast with cold and snow deep into Texas. But if we got the more modern versions in 05 and 08 then the maps are all red.

[Ralph's Weather]

Do you like those very technical seasonal forecasts? If so, here's one to check out:

http://m.uploadedit.com/bbtc/1509722707103.pdf

This person is an enthusiast and not a professional met but he/she clearly knows some things. Not sure how accurate it will be but I will say the thoughts in this forecast are fairly similar to Larry Cosgrove's forecast for winter issued last weekend. Seems like January may be the best month for us to experience a good wintry event or two.

Enjoy the reading and if y'all see other forecasts for winter, post 'em in this thread.

I think this is a pretty solid winter outlook. I have noticed the NW N Pac ridging setting up. The NW US looks like a lock to be cold and the eastern US looks like a lock to be warm. The best portion of winter for Texas does look to be January.

[wxman57]

Do you like those very technical seasonal forecasts? If so, here's one to check out:

http://m.uploadedit.com/bbtc/1509722707103.pdf

This person is an enthusiast and not a professional met but he/she clearly knows some things. Not sure how accurate it will be but I will say the thoughts in this forecast are fairly similar to Larry Cosgrove's forecast for winter issued last weekend. Seems like January may be the best month for us to experience a good wintry event or two.

Enjoy the reading and if y'all see other forecasts for winter, post 'em in this thread.

Note that I had nothing to do with the preparation of that very warm winter forecast for Texas. This winter will be colder than last winter, I promise.

[Portastorm]

You have been promising that for months. We are going to hold you to it! And we're eager to hear what your cold-mongerer colleague has to say about the winter season ahead?!

[wxman57]

:uarrow:

You have been promising that for months. We are going to hold you to it! And we're eager to hear what your cold-mongerer colleague has to say about the winter season ahead?!

Wow! I didn't realize that Hobby Airport (south Houston) hit 90 twice (2nd and 5th), tying the all-time high there for November. Average temps through yesterday were 13.2F above normal at Hobby. Last November was about 5.4F above normal at Hobby.

My cold-mogering coworker is out of the office today. He'll be in the office tomorrow.

[Ntxw]

Do you like those very technical seasonal forecasts? If so, here's one to check out:

http://m.uploadedit.com/bbtc/1509722707103.pdf

This person is an enthusiast and not a professional met but he/she clearly knows some things. Not sure how accurate it will be but I will say the thoughts in this forecast are fairly similar to Larry Cosgrove's forecast for winter issued last weekend. Seems like January may be the best month for us to experience a good wintry event or two.

Enjoy the reading and if y'all see other forecasts for winter, post 'em in this thread.

Note that I had nothing to do with the preparation of that very warm winter forecast for Texas. This winter will be colder than last winter, I promise.

We need better assurances than using last winter . Considering it was the hottest winter ever ever on record for Texas as a whole!!

We need something like "Frigid winter", "I'm staying indoors all winter", or "I'm moving to Tahiti" type winters...

[Brent]

This winter will be colder than last winter, I promise.

This isnt saying much lol.

I think I missed last winter...

[CaptinCrunch]

This winter will be colder than last winter, I promise.

This isnt saying much lol.

I think I missed last winter...

We all missed last winter since the seasons went "Summer, Extended Summer, Fall Like, Early Spring, and Spring".....Which brings us back to this past Summer