Texas Winter 2017-2018

[TheProfessor]

It really does suck for Texas that y'all can't take advantage of Clippers in NW flow. In Ohio if we miss out on the big snows then we hope for NW flow to get on the clipper train.

NW flow in Texas generally means downsloping from the high Rockies and high plains. Thats not good like in Ohio.

Yep, not to mention clippers also typically weaken as they move south(except for some rare occasions like the recent one from a week ago.) but they typically produce most of central and southern Ohio's snowfall in a season.

[TheProfessor]

It really does suck for Texas that y'all can't take advantage of Clippers in NW flow. In Ohio if we miss out on the big snows then we hope for NW flow to get on the clipper train.

NW flow in Texas generally means downsloping from the high Rockies and high plains. Thats not good like in Ohio.

NW flow is awesome for Texas in the summer months though as it brings cooler temps and MCS activity. Any other time of the year it's generally not good for us.

That's why it's perfect for me lol, I like NW flow year around while I'm in Ohio during the winter and Texas during the Summer.

[aggiecutter]

The NWS survey crews found the Tornado at Dekalb, Texas last night was a EF-2.

[orangeblood]

Latest Euro weeklies aren't looking good for the southern plains...Arctic Air confined to Canada into the Midwest. Hopefully the MJO can overwhelm the unfavorable SSTs in the Northern Pacific that are evolving

[hamburgerman7070]

Latest Euro weeklies aren't looking good for the southern plains...Arctic Air confined to Canada into the Midwest. Hopefully the MJO can overwhelm the unfavorable SSTs in the Northern Pacific that are evolving

Orangeblood, mike ventrice said today that euro weeklies were very cold and snowy so I'm not sure then. Will it take the mjo to get to the cold phases for that to happen or stronger amplitude?

[orangeblood]

Latest Euro weeklies aren't looking good for the southern plains...Arctic Air confined to Canada into the Midwest. Hopefully the MJO can overwhelm the unfavorable SSTs in the Northern Pacific that are evolving

Orangeblood, mike ventrice said today that euro weeklies were very cold and snowy so I'm not sure then. Will it take the mjo to get to the cold phases for that to happen or stronger amplitude?

Not sure what areas he is referring to but it's normal temps with below average precip on the latest Euro Weekly run...aka the dreaded Dry Northwest Flow

Also, Ventrice is a Northeast guy...that run was very favorable for them, not good for us. ++PNA is showing is ugly head again

[bubba hotep]

Grass fire in Parker County showing up on FWD radar......

Showed up nicely on sat as well

[hamburgerman7070]

http://blog.southernwx.com/wp-content/u ... 25zYwk.gif

This is euro weeklies for today.

[Brent]

that doesn't look great around here

[hamburgerman7070]

Latest Euro weeklies aren't looking good for the southern plains...Arctic Air confined to Canada into the Midwest. Hopefully the MJO can overwhelm the unfavorable SSTs in the Northern Pacific that are evolving

Orangeblood, mike ventrice said today that euro weeklies were very cold and snowy so I'm not sure then. Will it take the mjo to get to the cold phases for that to happen or stronger amplitude?

Not sure what areas he is referring to but it's normal temps with below average precip on the latest Euro Weekly run...aka the dreaded Dry Northwest Flow

Also, Ventrice is a Northeast guy...that run was very favorable for them, not good for us. ++PNA is showing is ugly head again

Do we need mjo in certain phases moving forward or does that matter at this point?

[orangeblood]

http://blog.southernwx.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/output_25zYwk.gif

This is euro weeklies for today.

End of Feb looks more favorable for us as the pacific jet cuts underneath the Western NA ridge with Cross Polar flow continuing

[orangeblood]

Orangeblood, mike ventrice said today that euro weeklies were very cold and snowy so I'm not sure then. Will it take the mjo to get to the cold phases for that to happen or stronger amplitude?

Not sure what areas he is referring to but it's normal temps with below average precip on the latest Euro Weekly run...aka the dreaded Dry Northwest Flow

Also, Ventrice is a Northeast guy...that run was very favorable for them, not good for us. ++PNA is showing is ugly head again

Do we need mjo in certain phases moving forward or does that matter at this point?

Phases 2,3 is most favorable this time of year for us. Phase 8 is more favorable for east coast, that's why twitter is getting quite active re: upcoming pattern as it appears MJO forecasts are quite bullish into Phase 7 to 8. Still too early to know how Phase 2,3 will transpire but with each phase lasting 5-10 days, 2nd half of Feb seems realistic as most favorable for southern plains

[hamburgerman7070]

I just want a more favorable pattern for winter weather with less cold air. Whatever we need I would like to see lol. Ntwx has mentioned Feb 1978 unless that's out of the question now.

[bubba hotep]

I'm not overly worried about the Euro Weeklies, they show little skill in the longer range and seem to be more just fun to look at. The MJO cycle should give them a little more accuracy but there is still a lot of variance in that signal as tropical convection is chaotic and gives the models fits. However, even as the pattern has relaxed it has been hard to get a system to dig deep into the SW and eject out across Texas. I'm not sure that will change this winter.

[South Texas Storms]

I'm not overly worried about the Euro Weeklies, they show little skill in the longer range and seem to be more just fun to look at. The MJO cycle should give them a little more accuracy but there is still a lot of variance in that signal as tropical convection is chaotic and gives the models fits. However, even as the pattern has relaxed it has been hard to get a system to dig deep into the SW and eject out across Texas. I'm not sure that will change this winter.

Yeah I don't remember the last time we had a cut off low in Mexico. It has been a long time, but that's not surprising in La Nina winters.

I'm tending to think the PNA will surge back positive and the coldest air with this next arctic outbreak will be east of TX, but it's still too early to have much confidence in that.

[TheProfessor]

What's this? Hail in Ohio... and in Janaury!? I legit thought something was wrong with my A.C unit.

[TheProfessor]

And now I just heard the loudest thunder crack I've ever heard in Ohio. Woulda made any Texan proud.

[Brent]

I'm not overly worried about the Euro Weeklies, they show little skill in the longer range and seem to be more just fun to look at. The MJO cycle should give them a little more accuracy but there is still a lot of variance in that signal as tropical convection is chaotic and gives the models fits. However, even as the pattern has relaxed it has been hard to get a system to dig deep into the SW and eject out across Texas. I'm not sure that will change this winter.

oh they dug alright... too far south for Dallas...

[Cpv17]

I’m pretty sure last week you guys were saying the Euro weeklies were looking great for us for February and now all of a sudden they aren’t? If that’s the case I wouldn’t put too much stock into the Euro weeklies.

[wxman22]

Speaking of cut off lows the CMC for the past few runs has been consistently cutting off a low around the beginning of February, something to watch as the CMC has been good this season at detecting storms in the long range, it detected the 3 winter weather events we've had this season before the Euro or GFS.And keep in mind we don't have to have a very cold airmass to get a winter storm,in fact, the air mass being too cold tends to work against us sometimes because of the suppression of the storm track.