Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Cpv17]

Now that we're into 2018 and enjoying this cold weather, here are some stats from 2017 from FW NWS.

- February was the warmest February on record, with an average of 60.6 degrees (10.7 degrees above normal).
- March was the second warmest March on record.
- November was the sixth warmest November on record.
- The only month with a below normal temperature? August.
- North Texas set or tied nine daily record high temperatures.

In North Texas, the top five warmest years have all taken place since 2006 -- those years were 2006, 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2017.

What’s your guys honest opinion about all the record warmth over the past few years? What is causing it and will we ever go through another pattern of record cold?

[iorange55]

I know they don’t like discussing, uh, global warming in the winter threads, so it might be better to ask in another thread. That being said, I definitely don’t think it’s a coincidence. I know we go through warming and cooling patterns, but it’s clear there is a man made element in play with this current warming trend. To ignore it would be incredibly silly.

[Brent]

I will say its interesting the top 5 warm years are in the last 11... it could be a cycle but if thats true, when will the cold years start? When even is the last cold year in Dallas?

[Quixotic]

I will say its interesting the top 5 warm years are in the last 11... it could be a cycle but if thats true, when will the cold years start? When even is the last cold year in Dallas?

More like I’ve been here for 8 of the top 10!

[Ntxw]

I will say its interesting the top 5 warm years are in the last 11... it could be a cycle but if thats true, when will the cold years start? When even is the last cold year in Dallas?

66.2 is the average mean temp. 2013 and 2014 were exactly 66.2 or normal. The last below normal year was 2003 when it was 66. 2001-2003 were all below normal years.

[bubba hotep]

I will say its interesting the top 5 warm years are in the last 11... it could be a cycle but if thats true, when will the cold years start? When even is the last cold year in Dallas?

More like I’ve been here for 8 of the top 10!

But also some of the wettest and snowiest!

[bubba hotep]

Meanwhile, this is happening out East.

[Ntxw]

Meanwhile, this is happening out East.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/sav ... -1-100.gif

Savannah, GA had 1.5" of snow and sleet today. Nearly everyone along the gulf coast has seen more snow than us. Heck the ngulf has seen more snow than most cities along I-40. Talk about a whacky lopsided winter of suppression thus far

[Brent]

Meanwhile, this is happening out East.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/sav ... -1-100.gif

Savannah, GA had 1.5" of snow and sleet today. Nearly everyone along the gulf coast has seen more snow than us. Heck the ngulf has seen more snow than most cities along I-40. Talk about a whacky lopsided winter of suppression thus far

yeah its been a really strange last month thats for sure

I never would have expected this pattern the way its been

[downsouthman1]

Meanwhile, this is happening out East.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/sav ... -1-100.gif

That was the storm the dropped freezing drizzle across Austin yesterday causing multiple rollovers and 1 fatality, as well as closed roads.

[gpsnowman]

Meanwhile, this is happening out East.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/sav ... -1-100.gif

Savannah, GA had 1.5" of snow and sleet today. Nearly everyone along the gulf coast has seen more snow than us. Heck the ngulf has seen more snow than most cities along I-40. Talk about a whacky lopsided winter of suppression thus far

Yeah, Ryan Maue has a video on his Twitter showing big snowflakes falling on Tallahassee. Tallahassee has more snow than DFW!!!!

[Ralph's Weather]

4 straight mornings in the teens here.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Rose above freezing for most of the afternoon yesterday only to drop back to 22 this morning. Looks like 2 more nights of freezing temps before the warm up.

[orangeblood]

:uarrow:

I know they don’t like discussing, uh, global warming in the winter threads, so it might be better to ask in another thread. That being said, I definitely don’t think it’s a coincidence. I know we go through warming and cooling patterns, but it’s clear there is a man made element in play with this current warming trend. To ignore it would be incredibly silly.

Now, I agree there could be a man made element at play with this trend but there is by no means anything definitive. What is even more asinine is to conclude that man made CO2 is the main driver, IMO, the more reasonable assumption is that it is tied to urban development around where most of these temperature measurements are taken. If you look at the trend say in Graham, TX for example...it is nowhere near the records being set like in DFW

[orangeblood]

Now back on topic....still am encouraged by the ensembles for late next week, there is still southern plains winter storm potential when you see a setup like this below. Still way outside any of the operationals stike zone, so continuing to rely on ENS is prudent. I would imagine the operationals will be all over the place until this weekend!!

[Cpv17]

How strong do the high pressures have to be to produce snow in TX this time of year?

[Portastorm]

Now back on topic....still am encouraged by the ensembles for late next week, there is still southern plains winter storm potential when you see a setup like this below. Still way outside any of the operationals stike zone, so continuing to rely on ENS is prudent. I would imagine the operationals will be all over the place until this weekend!!

Funny you should mention this, orangeblood. In my morning perusal of the models, I saw that system and immediately thought "hmm ... looks like a bowling ball, cold core upper low. That could be interesting." I am wondering if there will be enough cold air in play to make it something worth watching. As of now (and of course it's much too early to get hung up on placement) it looks like it would put North Texas in a favorable position. I hope so.

[wxman57]

How strong do the high pressures have to be to produce snow in TX this time of year?

It's not a question of high pressure strength as far as snow potential here. For snow in Texas, we need three things:

1. Cold air - not just at the surface, but through a deep enough layer (where the precip is developing) such that the precip forms as snow and reaches the ground as snow.

2. Moisture - If the high pressure area builds too far south through TX, then that often cuts the moisture off and limits snow potential.

3. Lifting Mechanism - We need something lift the air so that it can condense into snowflakes in the sub-freezing air aloft. This is most often accomplished by the passage of an upper-level trof or low center once the cold air is in place. These trofs, if strong enough, will cause a low center to develop along the front off the TX Coast. (West Gulf Low). These lows generate the lift AND provide the moisture for coastal counties. Some of our greatest snowfalls have occurred with the formation of a west Gulf low. In addition, the main upper-low center passing across Texas can bring cold air aloft AND enough lifting to produce snow. This is how northern Texas gets the most snow.

So, first we need deep cold air, then we need something to generate the snow.

[Agua]

Follow @SteveSGoddard . NASA / NOAA has been fiddling with the historic data. It's not warming.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Lets not have that discussion here.