Texas Winter 2017-2018

[bubba hotep]

The 12z Euro EPS only has one member that comes to close to freezing on one day at DFW... 11 Months without a freeze looks pretty much locked in now.

[Brent]

The 12z Euro EPS only has one member that comes to close to freezing on one day at DFW... 11 Months without a freeze looks pretty much locked in now.

Accuweather's forecast(I know I know but there's literally no other weather) doesn't have a freeze at DFW for another month... 2 days before Christmas and even then its barely.

Looking at January(again I know I know) some icy days to rain but nothing extreme on temps

[bubba hotep]

For the 2nd run in a row, the Euro Weeklies are showing a flip to colder and wetter (normal to slightly above normal) come mid-Dec.

[Brent]

GFS looks interesting in fantasy land(when isn't it fantasy land)

close calls 288-300 hours and at 372 hours a brief mix appears at the end of precip around Dallas

Bigger story is rain events!!! Too bad even that's not til day 11-12

[bubba hotep]

The Euro & EPS continue to keep rain out beyond D10. I can't put any faith in that until they start to move the pattern change up in time.

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS has a wet start to Dec with over 2" of rain at DFW during the first part of the month.

[Brent]

0z GFS has a cold core low beyond 300 hours that has snow from West Texas to DFW

Even snows in Mexico

Also a good rain event ahead of that but this is all fantasy land

Rick Mitchell did hint at a possible pattern change beyond the first week of December on the 10pm news

[bubba hotep]

Models continue to come into agreement that things will turn active as we move into December. It also looks like the we should finally see some cold by mid month.

[wxman57]

Boy, this thread is dead. 12Z GFS has snow across Texas the weekend after next! Hey, I'm trying to get you guys some snow this winter, after I enjoyed last "winter" so much. It's not my fault that the atmosphere isn't cooperating.

[South Texas Storms]

12z model guidance continues to indicate that we could see widespread rain across much of Texas and possibly a threat of frozen precip in northern parts of the state around the second weekend of December.

[wxman57]

12z model guidance continues to indicate that we could see widespread rain across much of Texas and possibly a threat of frozen precip in northern parts of the state around the second weekend of December.

What the 12Z GFS giveth, the 18Z GFS taketh away...

[starsfan65]

12z model guidance continues to indicate that we could see widespread rain across much of Texas and possibly a threat of frozen precip in northern parts of the state around the second weekend of December.

What the 12Z GFS giveth, the 18Z GFS taketh away...

Heat miser!! I should have known!!

[Brent]

not much rain on the 0z but cold in fantasy land(no frozen precip)

Maybe someday it'll be in forecasting range

Worried about a dry NW flow when the pattern does change though with the cold more east based, where is the SE ridge?

0z Euro finally shows a storm system moving in at day 10 the end of the run with colder air in the Panhandle

[Ntxw]

Pattern looks promising week 2 and 3 (through mid Dec). Maybe a couple of near miss storms to follow. The pattern looks blocky which spells winter storms potential.



Who wouldn't take Christmas Eve 2009 analogs? Long, Long way out though and let us hope it sticks. Should be interesting per GEFS and EPS.

[gpsnowman]

2009 would be terrific. With this November about to close out very warm, we just gotta be patient. Winter will get here at some point with at least some below normal temps and possibly........wait for it........a freeze!!!

[BTAYLOR5021]

2nd week in Dec seems cold and maybe moisture...#FINGERSCROSSED N. TEXAS

[Portastorm]

Yep ... all of the longer-range forecasters who I follow online are increasingly bullish about a major pattern change in the 10-15 day period. If they're right -- and as Ntxw showed above -- we will see much colder, stormier conditions for the central and eastern CONUS. Just in time for Christmas!

[bubba hotep]

So who tracks the polar vortex for us? I keep seeing chatter about it on the interwebz but I've never put much effort into reading up on it.

It looks like DFW might see it's first freeze of the season b/w the 7-9th as the ensembles are driving some Canadian air deep into the Central US. Then after that, eyes turn back towards the Pacific. Will we see the Pacific jet reload and flood the US with another batch of warm Pacific air or will we see it calm down allowing for a prolonged period of more seasonal weather? The Euro Weeklies have been showing a prolonged stretch of seasonable weather stretching all the way into January, after the upcoming pattern flip.

We missed out on really cold air the with the 1st go round of blocking but this time looks better for us:

[Brent]

The 12z GFS and CMC both have a more active pattern by early next week(finally inside 10 days!), the CMC even brings in rain next weekend and the LR GFS remains cold and unsettled behind that initial storm.

[gulfcoast200]

Coastal counties need rain bad. Burn ban is in effect in some parts. Less than half an inch since Harvey at our place in Matagorda county.