Texas Winter 2017-2018

Winter Weather Discussion

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CaptinCrunch
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#101 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:31 pm

ENSO Update September 18, 2017

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

The last 3 Winters for NTX were (2014/15 El Nino) Cold (2015/16 Strong El Nino) Warm (2016/17 weak La Nina/Neutral) Warmer
Winter 2010/11 Was a La Nina and we had a average winter with snow.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#102 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:33 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:ENSO Update September 18, 2017

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

The last 3 Winters for NTX were (2014/15 El Nino) Cold (2015/16 Strong El Nino) Warm (2016/17 weak La Nina/Neutral) Warmer
Winter 2010/11 Was a La Nina and we had a average winter with snow.



So you're suggesting a warm Winter? You can exit this thread too! :lol: :lol: :lol:

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#103 Postby Ntxw » Sat Sep 23, 2017 8:09 am

The one thing that has stuck out to me, that can potentially mean a cold winter, is that the potential Nina/cold neutral is very tilted to the east. Eastern based La Nina can be very cold as the spatial pattern is resemblance to a modoki Nino (warm west , colder east) just look back to the 1970s Ninas. I think we can benefit from this. Very warn NIna winters tend to be cold west with NIno 3.4 often chillier than 1+2 and 3.

Recent years with running colder tilted to the east includes 2010 and 2013.

This gives me hope and I think can be a key player in the coming months.

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#104 Postby SoupBone » Sun Sep 24, 2017 7:20 pm

Ntxw wrote:The one thing that has stuck out to me, that can potentially mean a cold winter, is that the potential Nina/cold neutral is very tilted to the east. Eastern based La Nina can be very cold as the spatial pattern is resemblance to a modoki Nino (warm west , colder east) just look back to the 1970s Ninas. I think we can benefit from this. Very warn NIna winters tend to be cold west with NIno 3.4 often chillier than 1+2 and 3.

Recent years with running colder tilted to the east includes 2010 and 2013.

This gives me hope and I think can be a key player in the coming months.


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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#105 Postby Brent » Mon Sep 25, 2017 12:17 am

I can't believe its 3 months til Christmas guys

Winter is coming :cold: I hope this one will actually be somewhat cold. :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#106 Postby CaptinCrunch » Mon Sep 25, 2017 2:51 pm

Winter coming? I'll be happy with rain coming!! 28 days with no measurable rainfall @DFW airport
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#107 Postby Brent » Mon Sep 25, 2017 11:02 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:Winter coming? I'll be happy with rain coming!! 28 days with no measurable rainfall @DFW airport


yeah I wanna see rain and fall temperatures first...

the forecast is pretty depressing right now

and hope we have a winter eventually... :roll:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#108 Postby SoupBone » Thu Sep 28, 2017 12:36 pm

Where's my cold weather?!

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#109 Postby weathaguyry » Sat Sep 30, 2017 2:31 pm

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#110 Postby SoupBone » Tue Oct 03, 2017 9:38 am

Where's my cool weather? Oh where has it gone? wxman57 has put a hex on cold fronts, I know it.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#111 Postby SoupBone » Sun Oct 08, 2017 11:17 am

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#112 Postby Snowflake7 » Tue Oct 10, 2017 10:17 am

Feels great here in Euless, Texas!! :ggreen: :ggreen:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#113 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Oct 10, 2017 1:10 pm

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#114 Postby weathaguyry » Tue Oct 10, 2017 8:43 pm

*Waiting for fall weather*

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#115 Postby SoupBone » Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:28 am

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Sunspot count at zero today :)
https://twitter.com/wxweb/status/917733709188657152


Let's hope this continues, though do we have any validated studies on sunspots (or lack thereof) and cold winters? I know I've read a few articles, but not seen any real studies. :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#116 Postby SoupBone » Sat Oct 21, 2017 12:53 pm

So Weather Channel saying la nina, warm and dry Winter.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#117 Postby BTAYLOR5021 » Sat Oct 21, 2017 5:11 pm

Take what NOAA says with a grain of salt... La Nina's tend to be warmer and dryer overall but has brought some of the coldest cold snaps the DFW N Texas and its fair share of winter stoms. They are pretty robotic with their long range forecasts. Remember when they said winter 15-16 would be cooler? They were wrong in fact it was very warm that winter with only a TRACE of snow.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#118 Postby CaptinCrunch » Mon Oct 23, 2017 8:45 am

BTAYLOR5021 wrote:Take what NOAA says with a grain of salt... La Nina's tend to be warmer and dryer overall but has brought some of the coldest cold snaps the DFW N Texas and its fair share of winter stoms. They are pretty robotic with their long range forecasts. Remember when they said winter 15-16 would be cooler? They were wrong in fact it was very warm that winter with only a TRACE of snow.


The CPC seasonal WINTER outlook is no better than 50% accurate which oddly enough is the same % of the Old Farmers Almanac winter outlook. :roll: :spam:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#119 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Mon Oct 23, 2017 2:41 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:
BTAYLOR5021 wrote:Take what NOAA says with a grain of salt... La Nina's tend to be warmer and dryer overall but has brought some of the coldest cold snaps the DFW N Texas and its fair share of winter stoms. They are pretty robotic with their long range forecasts. Remember when they said winter 15-16 would be cooler? They were wrong in fact it was very warm that winter with only a TRACE of snow.


The CPC seasonal WINTER outlook is no better than 50% accurate which oddly enough is the same % of the Old Farmers Almanac winter outlook. :roll: :spam:

Id put money on us either having a warm winter or a cold winter. :cheesy:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#120 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Mon Oct 23, 2017 2:51 pm

I used to put a lot of stock in each winter forecast that came out every year. Now I feel like they are pretty much a novelty. Take 4 different winter forecasts and 2 of them will call for warm and dry and the other 2 will call for cold and wet. It then seems like out of the warm and dry forecasts, 50% will be wrong with 50% being wrong out of the cold and wet forecasts. These days its almost a coin flip.
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