Texas Winter 2017-2018

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srainhoutx
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4641 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:58 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:Light mist just started falling in NW Harris County with my temperature sitting at 32F.


I hope this isn't another event where the precip just turns out to be freezing drizzle instead of light snow like the models indicate. Remember that happened a few years ago as well. Not fun.


It's been my major concern all afternoon and Jeff mentioned it in his afternoon briefing:

Hard Freeze warning in effect for tonight for all areas…including the coastal counties.

Band of light sleet/snow expected to develop and move across the region this evening between 600pm-midnight with a light dusting of accumulation possible.

Very cold conditions continue over the region today with College Station now on its 22 straight hour at or below freezing. BUSH IAH has only managed 33 this afternoon and as the sun sets expect the temperatures to fall quickly into the 20’s. Tail end of upper level short wave over TX appears to bring lift across the region this evening resulting in a band of mixed precipitation. While low level remain extremely dry, as experienced this morning, there appears to be enough moisture to allow light sleet/snow to reach the ground. The energy this evening may be a bit stronger than the episode this morning and a few quick bursts of moderate sleet/snow will be possible. With surface temperatures falling well below freezing this evening light accumulations will be possible especially on elevated surface which have now cooled close to or below freezing. This includes bridges and overpasses which can become slick as the initial sleet/snow melts and then refreezes into a thin layer of ice…as seen south of I-10 today over portions of Galveston and Brazoria Counties with the morning sleet. Will need to watch radar trends closely this evening for any enhancement of precipitation bands over the region. Radar is starting to show some echo enhancements near Austin which may be the start of this event.

Main item of concern tonight will be how cold will low temperatures fall. As skies clear after midnight and with the arctic surface high centered nearly over the region expect near excellent cooling conditions. Expect a damaging hard freeze for all areas with possible upper 10’s Walker, San Jacinto, Polk, Trinity, and Madison Counties. If skies are slower to clear then add about 2-5 degrees to most areas (or mid to upper 20’s).

Forecast Low Temperatures Wednesday Morning:

North of HWY 105: 18-22

North of US 59: 21-25

South of US 59: 24-28

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4642 Postby G'TownTxGal » Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:01 pm

Portastorm wrote:
longhornweather wrote:It was a bit surprising to me that the WWA was only issued until 7 pm.


NWS anticipates that the freezing drizzle will end by that time. Granted the ice which has accumulated won't be going anywhere this evening but I think we are supposed to clear out, cloud-wise, overnight. Given that and drying conditions and minimal precip falling, the process of sublimation will probably make us ice free by tomorrow morning.



:uarrow: I hope. Going back to work tomorrow. Need the drive from here to Barton Creek area to be clear.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4643 Postby EnnisTx » Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:05 pm

Anyone else noticed the radar returns in North Texas and southern Oklahoma?
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4644 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:05 pm

srainhoutx wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:Light mist just started falling in NW Harris County with my temperature sitting at 32F.


I hope this isn't another event where the precip just turns out to be freezing drizzle instead of light snow like the models indicate. Remember that happened a few years ago as well. Not fun.


It's been my major concern all afternoon and Jeff mentioned it in his afternoon briefing:

Hard Freeze warning in effect for tonight for all areas…including the coastal counties.

Band of light sleet/snow expected to develop and move across the region this evening between 600pm-midnight with a light dusting of accumulation possible.

Very cold conditions continue over the region today with College Station now on its 22 straight hour at or below freezing. BUSH IAH has only managed 33 this afternoon and as the sun sets expect the temperatures to fall quickly into the 20’s. Tail end of upper level short wave over TX appears to bring lift across the region this evening resulting in a band of mixed precipitation. While low level remain extremely dry, as experienced this morning, there appears to be enough moisture to allow light sleet/snow to reach the ground. The energy this evening may be a bit stronger than the episode this morning and a few quick bursts of moderate sleet/snow will be possible. With surface temperatures falling well below freezing this evening light accumulations will be possible especially on elevated surface which have now cooled close to or below freezing. This includes bridges and overpasses which can become slick as the initial sleet/snow melts and then refreezes into a thin layer of ice…as seen south of I-10 today over portions of Galveston and Brazoria Counties with the morning sleet. Will need to watch radar trends closely this evening for any enhancement of precipitation bands over the region. Radar is starting to show some echo enhancements near Austin which may be the start of this event.



Jeff seems to think no freezing rain here across southeast TX, but I'm beginning to wonder when and if the precip will changeover to sleet and snow.

Central TX folks, have yall seen any snow or sleet? Or has it just been freezing drizzle?
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4645 Postby downsouthman1 » Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:18 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:
I hope this isn't another event where the precip just turns out to be freezing drizzle instead of light snow like the models indicate. Remember that happened a few years ago as well. Not fun.


It's been my major concern all afternoon and Jeff mentioned it in his afternoon briefing:

Hard Freeze warning in effect for tonight for all areas…including the coastal counties.

Band of light sleet/snow expected to develop and move across the region this evening between 600pm-midnight with a light dusting of accumulation possible.

Very cold conditions continue over the region today with College Station now on its 22 straight hour at or below freezing. BUSH IAH has only managed 33 this afternoon and as the sun sets expect the temperatures to fall quickly into the 20’s. Tail end of upper level short wave over TX appears to bring lift across the region this evening resulting in a band of mixed precipitation. While low level remain extremely dry, as experienced this morning, there appears to be enough moisture to allow light sleet/snow to reach the ground. The energy this evening may be a bit stronger than the episode this morning and a few quick bursts of moderate sleet/snow will be possible. With surface temperatures falling well below freezing this evening light accumulations will be possible especially on elevated surface which have now cooled close to or below freezing. This includes bridges and overpasses which can become slick as the initial sleet/snow melts and then refreezes into a thin layer of ice…as seen south of I-10 today over portions of Galveston and Brazoria Counties with the morning sleet. Will need to watch radar trends closely this evening for any enhancement of precipitation bands over the region. Radar is starting to show some echo enhancements near Austin which may be the start of this event.



Jeff seems to think no freezing rain here across southeast TX, but I'm beginning to wonder when and if the precip will changeover to sleet and snow.

Central TX folks, have yall seen any snow or sleet? Or has it just been freezing drizzle?

I've only observed light drizzle.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4646 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:23 pm

Returns near Lake Charles.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4647 Postby TexasF6 » Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:28 pm

EnnisTx wrote:Anyone else noticed the radar returns in North Texas and southern Oklahoma?


RETURNS WEST OF DALLAS FT WORTH. MOVING EASTERLY....
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4648 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:36 pm

Model soundings for Houston show a precip column that is completely below freezing, with the exception of a small area right at the surface. This suggests snow vs. freezing rain or sleet.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4649 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:37 pm

TexasF6 wrote:
EnnisTx wrote:Anyone else noticed the radar returns in North Texas and southern Oklahoma?


RETURNS WEST OF DALLAS FT WORTH. MOVING EASTERLY....


What returns?
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4650 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:37 pm

wxman57 wrote:Model soundings for Houston show a precip column that is completely below freezing, with the exception of a small area right at the surface. This suggests snow vs. freezing rain or sleet.


Just saw that with hrrr
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4651 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:38 pm

Any of that north of beaumont reaching the ground?
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4652 Postby EnnisTx » Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:39 pm

TexasF6 wrote:
EnnisTx wrote:Anyone else noticed the radar returns in North Texas and southern Oklahoma?


RETURNS WEST OF DALLAS FT WORTH. MOVING EASTERLY....


It has expanded just a little, not sure it's making it to the surface though. It should pass over me in about 30 minutes or so.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4653 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:43 pm

wxman57 wrote:Model soundings for Houston show a precip column that is completely below freezing, with the exception of a small area right at the surface. This suggests snow vs. freezing rain or sleet.


Yeah but we know that the models sometimes bust on the temperature profile. I'm wondering if the HRRR has a good handle on the current temperatures above the surface right now.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4654 Postby JDawg512 » Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:45 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:
I hope this isn't another event where the precip just turns out to be freezing drizzle instead of light snow like the models indicate. Remember that happened a few years ago as well. Not fun.


It's been my major concern all afternoon and Jeff mentioned it in his afternoon briefing:

Hard Freeze warning in effect for tonight for all areas…including the coastal counties.

Band of light sleet/snow expected to develop and move across the region this evening between 600pm-midnight with a light dusting of accumulation possible.

Very cold conditions continue over the region today with College Station now on its 22 straight hour at or below freezing. BUSH IAH has only managed 33 this afternoon and as the sun sets expect the temperatures to fall quickly into the 20’s. Tail end of upper level short wave over TX appears to bring lift across the region this evening resulting in a band of mixed precipitation. While low level remain extremely dry, as experienced this morning, there appears to be enough moisture to allow light sleet/snow to reach the ground. The energy this evening may be a bit stronger than the episode this morning and a few quick bursts of moderate sleet/snow will be possible. With surface temperatures falling well below freezing this evening light accumulations will be possible especially on elevated surface which have now cooled close to or below freezing. This includes bridges and overpasses which can become slick as the initial sleet/snow melts and then refreezes into a thin layer of ice…as seen south of I-10 today over portions of Galveston and Brazoria Counties with the morning sleet. Will need to watch radar trends closely this evening for any enhancement of precipitation bands over the region. Radar is starting to show some echo enhancements near Austin which may be the start of this event.



Jeff seems to think no freezing rain here across southeast TX, but I'm beginning to wonder when and if the precip will changeover to sleet and snow.

Central TX folks, have yall seen any snow or sleet? Or has it just been freezing drizzle?



Just freezing mist and drizzle. Still some mist occuring and 15 min to go before 7.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4655 Postby TexasF6 » Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:46 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
TexasF6 wrote:
EnnisTx wrote:Anyone else noticed the radar returns in North Texas and southern Oklahoma?


RETURNS WEST OF DALLAS FT WORTH. MOVING EASTERLY....


What returns?


On the TexasMesoNet radar. Same radar feature that drove Austin wild tonight. The dewpoints should be lower up there to kill it or make it virga though....
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4656 Postby davidiowx » Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:47 pm

Looks like some precip building up to the NE of the Houston Metro area. Kinda where the HRRR was pinpointing today
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4657 Postby longhornweather » Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:58 pm

Portastorm wrote:
longhornweather wrote:It was a bit surprising to me that the WWA was only issued until 7 pm.


NWS anticipates that the freezing drizzle will end by that time. Granted the ice which has accumulated won't be going anywhere this evening but I think we are supposed to clear out, cloud-wise, overnight. Given that and drying conditions and minimal precip falling, the process of sublimation will probably make us ice free by tomorrow morning.


Looks like they were right. Nothing much coming down anymore at my place in Georgetown.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4658 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Jan 02, 2018 8:00 pm

EnnisTx wrote:Anyone else noticed the radar returns in North Texas and southern Oklahoma?


Returns expanding as they move into Denton County. The 00z FWD sounding shows very dry low levels but some mid level moisture and a bit in the DGZ. I'll be holding out hope, given the impressive lift moving through the area lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4659 Postby Rgv20 » Tue Jan 02, 2018 8:01 pm

No sleet down here just some drizzle since noon.....have a temperature of 34F

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
550 PM CST Tue Jan 2 2018

TXZ250-251-253>255-030615-
Brooks-Kenedy-Hidalgo-Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-
Including the cities of Falfurrias, Sarita, McAllen, Edinburg,
Pharr, Mission, Weslaco, Raymondville, Brownsville, and Harlingen
550 PM CST Tue Jan 2 2018

...Patchy freezing drizzle and sleet possible late tonight into
early Wednesday morning...

A surface trough of low pressure across the western Gulf of Mexico
will continue to provide areas of light rain and drizzle...mixed
with some patchy sleet...across eastern portions of deep south
Texas early this evening. With temperatures falling into the lower
30s tonight...some patches of freezing drizzle...especially on
bridges and overpasses that are elevated...may develop late
tonight as temperatures approach freezing. The light rain and
drizzle mixed with sleet will diminish from west to east after
midnight bringing an end to the threat of freezing drizzle early
Wednesday morning...as the coastal trough offshore the lower
Texas coast moves eastward and drier air filters into the lower
and middle portions of the Rio Grande valley and eastern portions
of the northern ranchlands Wednesday morning.

Motorists should exercise caution when crossing over bridges and
overpasses and should be on the lookout for patches of ice later
this evening into early Wednesday.

$$

Castillo
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4660 Postby Ntxw » Tue Jan 02, 2018 8:03 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
EnnisTx wrote:Anyone else noticed the radar returns in North Texas and southern Oklahoma?


Returns expanding as they move into Denton County. The 00z FWD sounding shows very dry low levels but some mid level moisture and a bit in the DGZ. I'll be holding out hope, given the impressive lift moving through the area lol


Yeah it is a lot of lift. If we can get it to make it to the ground, some decent flurries? Wish we had reports from that way
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