Texas Winter 2017-2018

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4701 Postby weatherdude1108 » Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:27 am

South Texas Storms wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:
I hope this isn't another event where the precip just turns out to be freezing drizzle instead of light snow like the models indicate. Remember that happened a few years ago as well. Not fun.


It's been my major concern all afternoon and Jeff mentioned it in his afternoon briefing:

Hard Freeze warning in effect for tonight for all areas…including the coastal counties.

Band of light sleet/snow expected to develop and move across the region this evening between 600pm-midnight with a light dusting of accumulation possible.

Very cold conditions continue over the region today with College Station now on its 22 straight hour at or below freezing. BUSH IAH has only managed 33 this afternoon and as the sun sets expect the temperatures to fall quickly into the 20’s. Tail end of upper level short wave over TX appears to bring lift across the region this evening resulting in a band of mixed precipitation. While low level remain extremely dry, as experienced this morning, there appears to be enough moisture to allow light sleet/snow to reach the ground. The energy this evening may be a bit stronger than the episode this morning and a few quick bursts of moderate sleet/snow will be possible. With surface temperatures falling well below freezing this evening light accumulations will be possible especially on elevated surface which have now cooled close to or below freezing. This includes bridges and overpasses which can become slick as the initial sleet/snow melts and then refreezes into a thin layer of ice…as seen south of I-10 today over portions of Galveston and Brazoria Counties with the morning sleet. Will need to watch radar trends closely this evening for any enhancement of precipitation bands over the region. Radar is starting to show some echo enhancements near Austin which may be the start of this event.



Jeff seems to think no freezing rain here across southeast TX, but I'm beginning to wonder when and if the precip will changeover to sleet and snow.

Central TX folks, have yall seen any snow or sleet? Or has it just been freezing drizzle?


It looked like ice pellets(?) were embedded in the coating of ice on cars and furniture.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4702 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:10 am

The Euro is looking interesting!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4703 Postby Brent » Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:20 am

that's quite a storm at the end of the Euro
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4704 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:26 am

Brent wrote:that's quite a storm at the end of the Euro


Yep! And some cold air coming in too. Not crazy cold, but for this time of the year, cold enough.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4705 Postby missygirl810 » Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:47 am

And where would the storm be...maybe? lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4706 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:12 am

It's been a relaxing break. I'm loving the cold, the past 2 years were pretty hard on me having to go to warm 70 degrees weather to 20-30 degree weather in Ohio(Actually, I don't think it was that cold in Ohio when I got back last year). Luckily it looks like Columbus will have a brief thaw(if you can call it that) when I arrive Sunday as it will be in the low 30s that day and perhaps peaking into the low 40s on the following Monday(I do have some doubts but WAA usually wins 95% of the time.) Unfortunately the ground is so cold there even though the air temperature should get above freezing there are concerns that rain/snow will turn into freezing rain and cause problems. I don't like ice when I'm in Texas but I can usually avoid it by staying home. However, Ice absolutely terrifies me in Ohio, I've already had to walk on some at the end of my last semester and it was brutal, I was lucky to have the road in front of my studio dry so I could walk on it. I might not get that chance come Monday. :eek:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4707 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:58 am

As orangeblood was saying we have until about Jan 15th to bring in a winter storm as cold slowly pulls back. All about timing and bringing down the pesky PNA. GEFS is shifting to GOA/Pac Nw low which usually spells zonal, milder flow thereafter
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4708 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jan 03, 2018 8:01 am

Brent wrote:that's quite a storm at the end of the Euro


Did you notice that the Euro has the low center precisely where the GFS has a 1034mb high at 240 hrs? Euro keeps the snow from Kansas northward through Nebraska. Nothing through Oklahoma and Texas.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4709 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 03, 2018 8:05 am

wxman57 wrote:
Brent wrote:that's quite a storm at the end of the Euro


Did you notice that the Euro has the low center precisely where the GFS has a 1034mb high at 240 hrs? Euro keeps the snow from Kansas northward through Nebraska. Nothing through Oklahoma and Texas.


You sir still have to deliver snow to the northern half of the state! Or Brent will grade your promise an F still for the winter :wink:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4710 Postby srainhoutx » Wed Jan 03, 2018 8:37 am

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
0233 AM CST WED JAN 03 2018

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL...

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF TRACE INCH(ES) WAS SET AT HOUSTON
INTERCONTINENTAL YESTERDAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF TRACE SET IN
1995...1979 AND 1919.


RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
0233 AM CST WED JAN 03 2018

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT GALVESTON...

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF TRACE INCH(ES) WAS SET AT GALVESTON YESTERDAY.
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF TRACE SET IN 1919.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4711 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:18 am

Today will be the first time above freezing since early Saturday morning. Its been a really nice stretch of cold. According to the extended forecast, highs look to all be above freezing as far as I can see. Lows, for the remaining of the week look to be below freezing and then it appears a warm up. This is all based strictly on an extended forecast I saw this morning. No single digits with this cold spell. The lowest we got was 10. This morning the low was 12.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4712 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:26 am

A look at 2017

Image
Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4713 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:48 am

Yukon Cornelius wrote:Today will be the first time above freezing since early Saturday morning. Its been a really nice stretch of cold. According to the extended forecast, highs look to all be above freezing as far as I can see. Lows, for the remaining of the week look to be below freezing and then it appears a warm up. This is all based strictly on an extended forecast I saw this morning. No single digits with this cold spell. The lowest we got was 10. This morning the low was 12.


Its been an impressive cold spell that really started pre Christmas. Clouds and on/off drizzle/flurries prevented maximum radiational cooling along with winds never going calm. 3 days at DFW where the afternoon highs spent most of the time in the 20s is the longest I think since superbowl week 2011
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4714 Postby cctxhurricanewatcher » Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:58 am

Ntxw wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:Today will be the first time above freezing since early Saturday morning. Its been a really nice stretch of cold. According to the extended forecast, highs look to all be above freezing as far as I can see. Lows, for the remaining of the week look to be below freezing and then it appears a warm up. This is all based strictly on an extended forecast I saw this morning. No single digits with this cold spell. The lowest we got was 10. This morning the low was 12.


Its been an impressive cold spell that really started pre Christmas. Clouds and on/off drizzle/flurries prevented maximum radiational cooling along with winds never going calm. 3 days at DFW where the afternoon highs spent most of the time in the 20s is the longest I think since superbowl week 2011


So what's next? Are we still on track for more cold next week?

This winter has been enjoyable, but we know our friend Wxman57 (aka Sybil) is cooking up a summer high pressure ridge of death for Texas right now.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4715 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:06 am

cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:Today will be the first time above freezing since early Saturday morning. Its been a really nice stretch of cold. According to the extended forecast, highs look to all be above freezing as far as I can see. Lows, for the remaining of the week look to be below freezing and then it appears a warm up. This is all based strictly on an extended forecast I saw this morning. No single digits with this cold spell. The lowest we got was 10. This morning the low was 12.


Its been an impressive cold spell that really started pre Christmas. Clouds and on/off drizzle/flurries prevented maximum radiational cooling along with winds never going calm. 3 days at DFW where the afternoon highs spent most of the time in the 20s is the longest I think since superbowl week 2011


So what's next? Are we still on track for more cold next week?

This winter has been enjoyable, but we know our friend Wxman57 (aka Sybil) is cooking up a summer high pressure ridge of death for Texas right now.


Jan 10-15 is the next time frame to watch. Most guidance latch on the system centered on Jan 12th for the plains as the back half of residual cold is around. Then the EPO relaxes and milder regime but that is beyond truncation

If guidance is right major thaw and warmth centered over the Great Lakes and northeast US
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4716 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:22 am

Ntxw wrote:
cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Its been an impressive cold spell that really started pre Christmas. Clouds and on/off drizzle/flurries prevented maximum radiational cooling along with winds never going calm. 3 days at DFW where the afternoon highs spent most of the time in the 20s is the longest I think since superbowl week 2011


So what's next? Are we still on track for more cold next week?

This winter has been enjoyable, but we know our friend Wxman57 (aka Sybil) is cooking up a summer high pressure ridge of death for Texas right now.


Jan 10-15 is the next time frame to watch. Most guidance latch on the system centered on Jan 12th for the plains as the back half of residual cold is around. Then the EPO relaxes and milder regime but that is beyond truncation

If guidance is right major thaw and warmth centered over the Great Lakes and northeast US

With warmth over that part of the country, what does that do to our temps and weather? Also, which model saw our current cold originally? Wasn't is the GFS?
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4717 Postby srainhoutx » Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:27 am

I'd watch the January 14th timeframe, +/- a day or two. The morning CPC Day 11+ Super Ensemble blend suggests an upper air pattern of chillier and possibly wetter weather across our Region. I see some of the Longer Range Meteorologist posting on social media about an extended January Thaw. Those ensembles did a good job beginning back in late November with the patterns that delivered the December 7-8 widespread snow event across the Gulf Coast as well as the current Arctic Outbreak and the brutal Nor'easter impacting the I-95 Corridor today through Friday.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4718 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:28 am

Ntxw wrote:As orangeblood was saying we have until about Jan 15th to bring in a winter storm as cold slowly pulls back. All about timing and bringing down the pesky PNA. GEFS is shifting to GOA/Pac Nw low which usually spells zonal, milder flow thereafter


EPS has a fully extended flat Pacific jet with a trough in the exit region by D15. That can be an ugly look, for winter wx lovers in TX. Hopefully, the MJO will keep truckng and tropical convection will shake things up. Lag times can be as much as 20 days from extension back to retracted with a healthy wave train. So we might have to write off the last week in January and 1st in February?
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4719 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:30 am

srainhoutx wrote:I'd watch the January 14th timeframe, +/- a day or two. The morning CPC Day 11+ Super Ensemble blend suggests an upper air pattern of chillier and possibly wetter weather across our Region. I see some of the Longer Range Meteorologist posting on social media about an extended January Thaw. Those ensembles did a good job beginning back in late November with the patterns that delivered the December 7-8 widespread snow event across the Gulf Coast as well as the current Arctic Outbreak and the brutal Nor'easter impacting the I-95 Corridor today through Friday.


That might be the last best chance for us in N. Texas until we get deeper into February. Or maybe '18 will be the year when long range warm ups don't verify!
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4720 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:44 am

bubba hotep wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:I'd watch the January 14th timeframe, +/- a day or two. The morning CPC Day 11+ Super Ensemble blend suggests an upper air pattern of chillier and possibly wetter weather across our Region. I see some of the Longer Range Meteorologist posting on social media about an extended January Thaw. Those ensembles did a good job beginning back in late November with the patterns that delivered the December 7-8 widespread snow event across the Gulf Coast as well as the current Arctic Outbreak and the brutal Nor'easter impacting the I-95 Corridor today through Friday.


That might be the last best chance for us in N. Texas until we get deeper into February. Or maybe '18 will be the year when long range warm ups don't verify!


I think long range warm ups could be muted or somewhat shorter than anticipated. I mean it has to relax some. The milder regime is likely a lag effect of the pattern in northeast Asia the past week, but will revert back to deep low pressures near Kamchatka later in the period.
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