Texas Winter 2017-2018

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4721 Postby orangeblood » Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:49 am

bubba hotep wrote:
Ntxw wrote:As orangeblood was saying we have until about Jan 15th to bring in a winter storm as cold slowly pulls back. All about timing and bringing down the pesky PNA. GEFS is shifting to GOA/Pac Nw low which usually spells zonal, milder flow thereafter


EPS has a fully extended flat Pacific jet with a trough in the exit region by D15. That can be an ugly look, for winter wx lovers in TX. Hopefully, the MJO will keep truckng and tropical convection will shake things up. Lag times can be as much as 20 days from extension back to retracted with a healthy wave train. So we might have to write off the last week in January and 1st in February?


I'm still not convinced the MJO will keep trucking...signs it could stay around Phase 2/3 for awhile or fizzle out which is much more favorable than Phase 4/5/6 like the European Model is showing. I believe we really need this Asian Mountain Wave to propagate pole ward to shake things up once again/make it a more interesting February

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4722 Postby Portastorm » Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:30 am

So, we finally rose above 32 degrees at 10 am today at both Camp Mabry and the airport. It marks the first time since 5 p.m. on New Year's Eve. That was a stretch of 64 consecutive hours of freezing or below for Austin. I think it's the longest stretch since 2011.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4723 Postby Ralph's Weather » Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:40 am

Great posts this morning. Often times our best winter storm chances can come with the big storm that finally dislodges the cold. This looks to possibly be the case for this pattern also. I do not foresee a full torch, but average to slightly above average for the second half of Jan and the first week of Feb looks to be on track. Mid Feb is typically our best chances for snow in northern TX. I expect the Feb pattern to be more of a neutral to negative PNA with a still negative EPO. This would result in cold highs with storms coming out of the SW and a SE US ridge. For us in the DFW and NE TX area we like to see the Gulf lows track up the TX coast and through LA vs the recent track where the lows have tracked over FL. A couple bowling balls crossing the state south of I-20 would be welcome also.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4724 Postby Ralph's Weather » Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:42 am

Portastorm wrote:So, we finally rose above 32 degrees at 10 am today at both Camp Mabry and the airport. It marks the first time since 5 p.m. on New Year's Eve. That was a stretch of 64 consecutive hours of freezing or below for Austin. I think it's the longest stretch since 2011.

We went from about 2PM Sunday to 10AM today so about 68 hours below freezing at my house.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4725 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:52 am

DFW has climbed to 33F, 76 hours below freezing
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4726 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:42 pm

Ntxw wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Brent wrote:that's quite a storm at the end of the Euro


Did you notice that the Euro has the low center precisely where the GFS has a 1034mb high at 240 hrs? Euro keeps the snow from Kansas northward through Nebraska. Nothing through Oklahoma and Texas.


You sir still have to deliver snow to the northern half of the state! Or Brent will grade your promise an F still for the winter :wink:


I did deliver SOME snow to the DFW area this winter. Certainly, I managed to bring some very cold air down into Texas this winter. I'll work on another snow event for the DFW area. Might have to wait until late January or February, though.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4727 Postby Hurricane_Apu » Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:07 pm

Portastorm wrote:So, we finally rose above 32 degrees at 10 am today at both Camp Mabry and the airport. It marks the first time since 5 p.m. on New Year's Eve. That was a stretch of 64 consecutive hours of freezing or below for Austin. I think it's the longest stretch since 2011.


Lafayette hit 60 hours, also ending at 10 am today.
Only a trace of snow last night.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4728 Postby Brent » Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:58 pm

Big rain event at the end of the Euro, it is rain though, temps are in the 50s and 60s. Otherwise a lot of mild air compared to this week. The entire country almost is torching at 240 hours lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4729 Postby orangeblood » Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:21 pm

Brent wrote:Big rain event at the end of the Euro, it is rain though, temps are in the 50s and 60s. Otherwise a lot of mild air compared to this week. The entire country almost is torching at 240 hours lol


There is a lot of evidence from the past to back up the term "January Thaw"...when you get extremes such as this current Arctic Outbreak, the atmosphere seems to always find a way to balance itself out shortly thereafter!! That being said, if I had to forecast the 2nd half of winter....I'd look for the coldest anomalies to be centered further west from where they are now, which should be more favorable for southern plains winter weather

And don't write off that system, there is still cold air around, just need the right synoptic setup to tap into it!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4730 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:14 pm

Next couple of weeks look relatively benign across Texas. Could be some thunderstorms ahead of the front around the 13th. Pattern over the next couple of weeks isn't one that would produce winter weather across Texas. It's common to have a big cold outbreak around late December followed by 2-3 weeks of mild weather. Winter will return late January and February.

850mb temperatures do look well above normal for much of the country by weekend after next:

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4731 Postby orangeblood » Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:21 pm

Ensembles paint a much different picture though...you've said it yourself, can't trust an operational run this far out :wink:

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4732 Postby Brent » Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:27 pm

in other news DFW is headed for 50 degrees!!!!

For the first time in like 2 weeks

I'm almost hot guys :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4733 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:33 pm

orangeblood wrote:Ensembles paint a much different picture though...you've said it yourself, can't trust an operational run this far out :wink:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_41.png


Right, ensembles would be better to look at. Euro indicates still slightly-below temps across TX by the 13th, however, they're indicating quite a warm-up after that weekend.

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4734 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:50 pm

Brent wrote:in other news DFW is headed for 50 degrees!!!!

For the first time in like 2 weeks

I'm almost hot guys :lol:


Better get your AC checked out. Don't want you dropping from heat exhaustion.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4735 Postby Portastorm » Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:53 pm

In reviewing the monthly summaries released today by NWS Austin/San Antonio for both Camp Mabry and the airport, I am really amazed. The month featured a literal roller coaster of temperatures which would fluctuate every 3-4 days. It started very warm and we had a high of 85 degrees on December 4th and then three days later it's snowing! The month featured two winter weather events although none of them provided any real accumulation outside of a half inch on December 7th. But they happened and in Austin, as you know, that is significant. We also had a thunderstorm. We had heavy rain. We had fog and drizzle. In the end, both reporting locations showed above normal precipitation and average temperatures. As Joe Bastardi might say "that's a heckuva way to run a La Nina."

December 2017 really was a wild weather month for us.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4736 Postby weatherdude1108 » Wed Jan 03, 2018 5:07 pm

One more night of prolonged freezing temps. Then a torch? I'm just glad it has snowed twice. We had ice yesterday, which is less fun, but makes the cold less wasted.
:P

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
248 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2018

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-041400-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
Including the cities of Llano, Burnet, Georgetown, Del Rio,
Rocksprings, Leakey, Kerrville, Bandera, Fredericksburg, Boerne,
Blanco, San Marcos, Austin, Bastrop, Giddings, Bracketville,
Uvalde, Hondo, San Antonio, New Braunfels, Seguin, Lockhart,
La Grange, Eagle Pass, Crystal City, Pearsall, Pleasanton,
Floresville, Karnes City, Gonzales, Cuero, Halletsville,
and Carrizo Springs
248 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2018

...One Last Night of Prolonged Temperatures Expected...

Low temperatures tonight will be warmer than last night but will
still bottom out in the lower to middle 20s across much of South-
Central Texas. Temperatures will drop below freezing late this
evening and will rise above freezing around 8-9 AM Thursday
morning. This will be about 10 to 12 hour period of below
freezing temperatures. Residents should protect their plants,
pets, and exposed pipes once again tonight. This should be the
last widespread freeze for this cold snap as lows return to above
freezing Friday morning.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4737 Postby Rgv20 » Wed Jan 03, 2018 5:27 pm

3rd consecutive Freeze Warning.......In other news we got to see a bright yellow ball in the sky oh wait thats the sun! :sun: We were stuck with clouds and drizzle on and off since December 24th lol

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
247 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2018

...Freezing Temperatures Expected Again Tonight...

.Clear skies and calm winds will allow temperatures to drop below
freezing overnight tonight and early Thursday morning. The
coldest temperatures will reside in the northern Ranchlands,
however, locations along the Rio Grande and coastal areas can
anticipate temperatures to drop to around freezing by Thursday
morning.

TXZ248>257-041400-
/O.CON.KBRO.FZ.W.0003.180104T0500Z-180104T1400Z/
Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Kenedy-Starr-Hidalgo-Inland Willacy-
Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-
Including the cities of Zapata, Hebbronville, Falfurrias, Sarita,
Rio Grande City, Roma, McAllen, Edinburg, Pharr, Mission,
Weslaco, Raymondville, Brownsville, Harlingen, Port Mansfield,
Port Isabel, South Padre Island, Laguna Heights, and Laguna Vista
247 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2018

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
8 AM CST THURSDAY...

* TEMPERATURE...27 to 32 degrees tonight.

* IMPACTS...Subfreezing temperatures will threaten tender
vegetation across the region. Protect outside pets and
livestock by providing adequate shelter and a safe source of
heat.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freeze Warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or
highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other
sensitive vegetation.

&&

$$

Frye
[/i]
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4738 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Jan 03, 2018 5:34 pm

The 18z GFS has the same system the Euro has around next Friday, but the GFS is way farther north and way more progressive with the low.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4739 Postby OKMet83 » Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:08 pm

It would be foolish to buy into the warm this far out equally as foolish to "take it to the bank" with any of the cold snow/ice solutions .. It's simply too early to say HOWEVER the ensembles do look promising.. Remember my friends operational runs have been crap outside 3-4 days lately... We shall see!
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4740 Postby Tejas89 » Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:13 pm

Now that we're into 2018 and enjoying this cold weather, here are some stats from 2017 from FW NWS.

- February was the warmest February on record, with an average of 60.6 degrees (10.7 degrees above normal).
- March was the second warmest March on record.
- November was the sixth warmest November on record.
- The only month with a below normal temperature? August.
- North Texas set or tied nine daily record high temperatures.

In North Texas, the top five warmest years have all taken place since 2006 -- those years were 2006, 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2017.

Image

Image
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