Winter: Global Model Watching

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 13369
Age: 54
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Winter: Global Model Watching

#1 Postby tolakram » Fri Dec 01, 2017 9:50 am

Similar to the tropics global model thread, but let's do one for winter.

Looks like some cold weather incoming to the east. We plan on doing some biking Sunday, just warm enough here near Cincinnati, then back to winter soon. :(


Image




https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/936597940885426177


@RyanMaue
As Arctic Oscillation (AO) remains negative, expecting Northern Hemisphere medium-range skill to remain high. Comparison b/t ECMWF, GFS, and CMC for past 30-days shows ECMWF well ahead of CMC and then GFS, bringing up the rear.
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 14864
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Winter: Global Model Watching

#2 Postby Ntxw » Fri Dec 01, 2017 9:55 am

With high latitude blocks driven by Pacific wave-trains, looks like the major population centers of the northern hemisphere see's early winter chill. There are rumbles of WPAC activity that may enhance the already amplified northern Pacific.

Image

The very warm waters just west of the dateline and cool waters off the South American coast has convection patterns similar to that of early winter 2013. Linkage from the convection out west forces a stable NPO North Pacific ridge. It's been meandering between the Aleutians and Northwest North America warming the SSTs as it goes.

Image
1 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

User avatar
gboudx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3625
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 1:39 pm
Location: Rockwall, Tx but from Harvey, La

Re: Winter: Global Model Watching

#3 Postby gboudx » Sat Dec 02, 2017 10:27 am

We need to keep a watch on Mt Agung for a possible eruption as well. I've been reading how a large eruption could affect global temps on the "cooling" side.

https://globalnews.ca/news/3891851/bali ... peratures/
0 likes   

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2022
Age: 56
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Winter Springs, Fl

Re: Winter: Global Model Watching

#4 Postby chaser1 » Sun Dec 03, 2017 10:42 am

Seems to me that both the GFS and the EURO are both equally advertising a good amount of troughing in the East (CONUS) beginning this upcoming Thurs./Fri. Actually looks to me as if the EURO has the sharpest 500mb trough in the east at the moment. I'm rooting for it to play out and bring on down that nice cool air down into Florida!!
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



TexasBreeze
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 56
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2014 12:50 pm

Re: Winter: Global Model Watching

#5 Postby TexasBreeze » Sun Dec 03, 2017 11:45 am

12z gfs= winter fail for TX except for 1 or 2 days of cooler air. Maybe it can rain in the least? Great pattern for the east and northeast US
0 likes   

WeatherGuesser
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2648
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am

Re: Winter: Global Model Watching

#6 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sat Dec 09, 2017 8:04 am

I can't read these things ....

Prognostications for Jan/Feb? Or don't they go that far?
0 likes   

Ralph's Weather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1620
Age: 30
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2013 11:55 am
Location: Lindale, TX

Re: Winter: Global Model Watching

#7 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sat Dec 09, 2017 10:23 pm

Things look to be coming together as expected. I expect a nationwide trough around the winter solstice or a bit after. Hope we can get a southern stream storm to bring rain and snow to the SW.
1 likes   
Follow on Facebook at Ralph's Weather.

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3398
Age: 34
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: Winter: Global Model Watching

#8 Postby Hammy » Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:34 am

GFS has been keen on showing that stubborn Christmas time 500mb high that keeps things scorching like we've seen the last two years.
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
---
My comics.
http://tba.cfw.me/
http://tbakids.cfw.me/

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 14864
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Winter: Global Model Watching

#9 Postby Ntxw » Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:26 am

Major Pacific buckling of the wave pattern. Southeast ridge will protect the east coast and southeast coast somewhat (maybe after Christmas the cold presses anyway) but interior from the high Rockies to the Mississippi and points between, look for a potential intense cold snap on the way for the holiday. A zone from TX northeastward to the Great Lakes should look for multiple threats of ice and snow.
1 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 13369
Age: 54
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: Winter: Global Model Watching

#10 Postby tolakram » Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:00 am

Here comes the cold, New Years morning.

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

WeatherGuesser
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2648
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am

Re: Winter: Global Model Watching

#11 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:54 pm

And the reprieve will be ... when?

I can't read these Rorshack tests.
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 13369
Age: 54
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: Winter: Global Model Watching

#12 Postby tolakram » Mon Jan 01, 2018 9:42 am

WeatherGuesser wrote:And the reprieve will be ... when?

I can't read these Rorshack tests.


That's just a prediction by the Euro model for this morning. Anything blue is below 32F, anything purple is below -6F. Look at the expanse that will be below 0 this morning. It's -1F here in Cincinnati, which the model accurately predicted 2 days in advance. You could go to a model page and scroll through the days but the further out you go the less accurate it gets. Local forecasts take multiple models into account and are usually much more accurate.

BUT, since you asked ... :)

I selected the current model output, Max Temp F over 6 hours.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/usa-east/max-temp-2m-6h/20180101-1800z.html

Using the 'Valid For' dropdown I tried to find when a warmup would occur, if any. Looks like we a decent warmup the 7th or 8th of January. The western KY area will reach a whopping 32F on the 3rd before cooling down again. Just one model though, and the euro seems to be a little less accurate in the winter.
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

xironman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1370
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2007 4:53 pm
Location: NoVA

Re: Winter: Global Model Watching

#13 Postby xironman » Wed Jan 03, 2018 8:10 am

The end is coming, after 200 hours the ridge builds in for good and does not give up for the current runs. Here is the GFS ensemble at 300

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 14864
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Winter: Global Model Watching

#14 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 03, 2018 8:12 am

:uarrow: Yes the runs are slowly moving to that for the second half of Jan. Would be mild zonal flow for eastern half US
1 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


WeatherGuesser
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2648
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am

Re: Winter: Global Model Watching

#15 Postby WeatherGuesser » Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:26 am

All I know is that the local 7 day forecast is showing low to mid 40s with night time lows in the mid 30s starting Sunday 1/7. No idea if that will hold beyond there or fall back.
0 likes   

User avatar
NotSparta
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 134
Age: 16
Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
Location: Between Toronto and Naples, FL

Re: Winter: Global Model Watching

#16 Postby NotSparta » Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:26 pm

xironman wrote:The end is coming, after 200 hours the ridge builds in for good and does not give up for the current runs. Here is the GFS ensemble at 300

Image


I hope that verifies, persistent bitter cold sucks
0 likes   
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for tropical systems, or http://www.weather.gov for general meteorology related stuff.

Also, I am not Sparta :lol:

Digital-TC-Chaser
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1135
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 10:45 pm

2018 Tropics Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#17 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Wed Jan 03, 2018 5:03 pm

mean looking storm this one hurricane strength blizzards along the coast.
Image

Image
0 likes   

WeatherGuesser
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2648
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am

Re: Winter: Global Model Watching

#18 Postby WeatherGuesser » Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:51 am

NotSparta wrote:
xironman wrote:The end is coming, after 200 hours the ridge builds in for good and does not give up for the current runs. Here is the GFS ensemble at 300


I hope that verifies, persistent bitter cold sucks



The Texans are hinting at another outbreak, but I can't figure out when or where.
1 likes   

Ralph's Weather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1620
Age: 30
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2013 11:55 am
Location: Lindale, TX

Re: Winter: Global Model Watching

#19 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:05 am

WeatherGuesser wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
xironman wrote:The end is coming, after 200 hours the ridge builds in for good and does not give up for the current runs. Here is the GFS ensemble at 300


I hope that verifies, persistent bitter cold sucks



The Texans are hinting at another outbreak, but I can't figure out when or where.

I think most of us are thinking the cold will return by late Jan into Feb and it will likely be focused on the Rockies with the PNA resetting to close to neutral. Before then we will see a couple weeks of ++EPO flooding most of the US with warmth and bringing moisture to the West.
0 likes   
Follow on Facebook at Ralph's Weather.

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 14864
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Winter: Global Model Watching

#20 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:09 am

WeatherGuesser wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
xironman wrote:The end is coming, after 200 hours the ridge builds in for good and does not give up for the current runs. Here is the GFS ensemble at 300


I hope that verifies, persistent bitter cold sucks



The Texans are hinting at another outbreak, but I can't figure out when or where.


Nothing bitter cold at this time but potential for a short lived cold snap late next week then moderates for the whole country.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K



Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot], stonewall and 13 guests