Winter: Global Model Watching

Winter Weather Discussion

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Ntxw
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Re: Winter: Global Model Watching

#21 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 08, 2018 12:02 am

Well warm up cancel on the guidance. More bitter cold air on the way. If you are north of I-40 you may not thaw out until May.
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Re: Winter: Global Model Watching

#22 Postby tolakram » Mon Jan 08, 2018 10:15 am

Here's an animation of the 6AM temps as predicted by the euro, starting this Wednesday and going to next Wednesday.

Image
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Re: Winter: Global Model Watching

#23 Postby xironman » Tue Jan 09, 2018 3:06 am

Trough is coming in way stronger than the ensembles predicted, but with a fairly progressive pattern the long range still looks decent for the east.

Image
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Re: Winter: Global Model Watching

#24 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jan 09, 2018 6:55 am

This morning's 6Z GFS shows a massive 1052 mb Arctic High dropping South into North Dakota coming this Monday 1/15/18.

The arctic air just keeps reloading over North America and dropping south with our persistent pattern.
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Re: Winter: Global Model Watching

#25 Postby xironman » Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:43 am

It is a progressive pattern, DC is close to 70 on Friday

Code: Select all

REAGAN WASHINGTON NATIONAL         
 KDCA   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   1/09/2018  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192     
 TUE  09| WED 10| THU 11| FRI 12| SAT 13| SUN 14| MON 15| TUE 16 CLIMO
 X/N  49| 31  46| 36  55| 54  69| 46  47| 24  33| 19  33| 24  40 25 43
 TMP  40| 32  42| 39  52| 59  63| 51  38| 26  28| 20  29| 26  34     
 DPT  25| 24  27| 34  47| 56  59| 44  17| 10   7|  6  10| 12  13     
 CLD  CL| PC  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| CL  CL| CL  CL| PC  PC     
 WND   5|  3   6|  4   6|  9   9| 13  18| 17  12|  8   8|  7  13     
 P12   0|  1   4| 12  21| 86  70| 87  35| 31  24| 20  24| 23  31 20 23
 P24    |      9|     22|     93|    100|     31|     25|     38    32
 Q12   0|  0   0|  0   0|  4   4|  5   1|  1   0|  0    |             
 Q24    |      0|      0|      4|      5|      0|       |             
 T12   0|  0   0|  0   0|  8   7| 14   1|  0   0|  0   1|  0   1     
 T24    |  1    |  0    |  8    | 27    |  2    |  0    |  1         
 PZP   1|  1  18|  1   0|  0   7|  7   5|  9  10| 12  15| 14  16     
 PSN  61| 53   0|  9   0|  0   0|  0  32| 81  79| 73  67| 58  57     
 PRS   6|  0   0|  0   1|  1   2|  3  18|  1   2|  3   3|  8   8     
 TYP   S|  S   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R  RS|  S   S|  S   Z|  Z   Z     
 SNW    |      0|      0|      0|      1|      0|       |   


And the cold does not hang around long enough to change the overall average, at least up here

Image
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Re: Winter: Global Model Watching

#26 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jan 10, 2018 2:58 pm

Looks like tropical tidbits added ICON which includes 2M temperature fields as well as MSLP precip (rain/frozen). Does anybody know what ICON is? Looks like it is a German model. I have heard of it in some of the NHC tropical discussions.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=138
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Re: Winter: Global Model Watching

#27 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Jan 12, 2018 8:56 am

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Re: Winter: Global Model Watching

#28 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:00 am

PV anomaly is dropping into the eastern Conus next week. Bitter cold air.
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Re: Winter: Global Model Watching

#29 Postby WeatherGuesser » Tue Jan 23, 2018 8:42 pm

Bets on February? CPC isn't showing much, but the Texans are hinting at something very unpleasant.
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Re: Winter: Global Model Watching

#30 Postby Ntxw » Tue Jan 23, 2018 8:48 pm

Likely coldest air of the season yet as the continent goes into deep freeze

Image

The key is the MJO. The holy grail for February is amplitude into phases 7-8-1-2 for the US. Reconstructed analogs almost always features significant cold blasts for that month with corresponding MJO signal.

Image
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Re: Winter: Global Model Watching

#31 Postby NotSparta » Wed Jan 24, 2018 7:50 am

Ntxw wrote:Likely coldest air of the season yet as the continent goes into deep freeze

Image

The key is the MJO. The holy grail for February is amplitude into phases 7-8-1-2 for the US. Reconstructed analogs almost always features significant cold blasts for that month with corresponding MJO signal.

Image



Luckily I don't think Toronto will be getting the coldest air of the season, that map puts us at average and the coldest air of the season would be highs below 0.
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Re: Winter: Global Model Watching

#32 Postby WeatherGuesser » Fri Jan 26, 2018 5:35 am

Two week forecast (out through the 9th as of this morning) I've been watching has been sliding towards cooler, but not abnormally cold. 'Mean' daily temperatures move upwards now also by about 5 degrees from mid-January to mid-February, so 'colder than normal' may not be as cold as it was for the last blast..
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Re: Winter: Global Model Watching

#33 Postby tolakram » Fri Jan 26, 2018 7:48 am

I don't believe the 2 week euro in the winter, we will see. So far looks like slightly below normal cold for our area. I liked the last round of snow, enough to look good but not so much as to cause any big issues.
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Re: Winter: Global Model Watching

#34 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sun Jan 28, 2018 6:48 am

Current forecast I'm seeing out through the 11th shows nothing extreme. A glancing blow this Thursday, Friday and Saturday, then moderation to 'normal' temperatures. Is this 'extreme cold' the Texans are talking about supposed to be later in the month?
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