Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

Winter Weather Discussion

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Jag95
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Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17

#1 Postby Jag95 » Tue Dec 05, 2017 6:56 pm

It's probably a very slim chance this happens, but it's in the forecast; the "S" word....for now.

Mobile NWS forecast:
Thursday Night
Rain likely before midnight, then a chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a low around 35. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Friday
Rain likely, possibly mixed with snow before noon, then a chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
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Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, AL, FL, GA, NC, SC)

#2 Postby Ntxw » Tue Dec 05, 2017 7:11 pm

Created a thread for Southeast folks. I know there isn't a lot of postings for the deep south but perhaps some early wintry prospects?

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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#3 Postby Hammy » Tue Dec 05, 2017 8:39 pm

The forecasts so far are making me quite unhappy as it looks like the snow will miss Barrow just to the north and south.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#4 Postby Ntxw » Tue Dec 05, 2017 9:23 pm

NAM verbatim is a pretty good set up for snow in N. Georgia. 850s are well below 0C and profiles are sufficient, surface temps 33-34 for wet snow

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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#5 Postby Ntxw » Tue Dec 05, 2017 10:51 pm

0Z GFS does not bring the precip shield as far north (though plenty cold enough further north) and instead has the two meeting in the Panhandle of Florida

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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#6 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Dec 05, 2017 10:53 pm

Interesting potential on the 0Z NAM. It shows a potent shortwave disturbance traversing through the base of the upper trough late Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. It shows potential of light snow from the MS and AL Gulf Coast region , and FL Panhandle region, northeast through GA into the Carolinas. NAM is pretty decent with winter-time synoptics, and thermal profiles look supportive during that aforementioned time frame for wintry precip in those areas. Also, the NAM has the precip field farther north during this time period as well.

It is definitely something to monitor as we approach the end of this week.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#7 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Dec 05, 2017 11:48 pm

NWS WFO New Orleans is calling for potential of 1/2 inch accumulation in Baton Rouge Friday afternoon FWIW. Models will be interesting the next couple of days. There will be changes to this I am sure as time progresses.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#8 Postby La Breeze » Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:25 am

Thanks for creating this thread, Ntxw.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#9 Postby BigB0882 » Wed Dec 06, 2017 2:14 pm

I live in Baton Rouge and am watching this closely. All models coming into agreement on SOMETHING. GFS only showing .2 accumulation but others are meeting in the 2-3 inch range. I doubt it all sticks right away so totals may end up lower but the potential is there and we are only 36-48 hours out. Hopefully Lucy doesn't snatch the ball away at the last second on us. I am a teacher and could use a 3 day weekend. Thanksgiving wasn't enough. lol
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#10 Postby Lane » Wed Dec 06, 2017 8:21 pm

Sleeting north of Montgomery. Wasn't supposed to see anything until Friday, if at all.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#11 Postby Hammy » Wed Dec 06, 2017 9:11 pm

We had a bit of sleet as well here in Winder for the few minutes before the precip ended.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#12 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:06 pm

The latest 0Z GFS run early this evening depicts upwards to about 1 inch of potential snowfall along the northeast periphery of the precipitation shield extending from the Southeast Louisiana region around Baton Rouge, northeast across Southern MS and trace-1/2 inch totals across Alabama east into Central Georgia. This will be from 12Z Friday through 18Z Friday in those areas. GFS also showing potential of snow flurries all the way to the. coast from Biloxi eastward to. Destin and Fort Walton Beach up through 12Z Saturday morning as the precipitation is moving out of the region.

It will be interesting to see the 12Z GFS run tomorrow morning for sure.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#13 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:26 am

FWIW, the latest 6Z NAM has 3-5 inch snowfall being forecast from an area on a line from generally Baton Rouge east/northeast through Southern Mississippi to Selma, AL.

A reminder that some people mock the NAM for its shortcomings with tropical weather. However, throughout my years of analysis, I have found the NAM to be relatively decent with regards to winter -time features and synoptics, similar to what we are seeing with our developing Gulf Coast disturbance the next 36-48 hours. So, in situations like this currently in the Deep South, the NAM is not being far-fetched folks! Just a little tip I wanted to share with you 8-)

The snowfall projection may be a tad overdone, but it would not shock me to see 1-3 inch snow totals in the areas referenced. The thermal profiles look decent and there appears to be just enough of a cold pocket of air filtering into the Deep South to cool that column enough near the surface Friday, when the deepest moisture will be in place. The disturbance will move through by Friday evening according to the NAM.

Let's see what the 12Z EURO will show us a bit later.....
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#14 Postby Ntxw » Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:15 am

12z GFS assuming 10:1 ratios. MIght be 5:1 or 7:1 so I'd cut a little bit, maybe half.

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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#15 Postby CajunMama » Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:25 am

Lafayette Parish has already called off school for Friday. :roll: There’s a POSSIBILITY of wintery precip. NWS as of now only has our low at 35.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#16 Postby bella_may » Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:25 am

Ntxw wrote:12z GFS assuming 10:1 ratios. MIght be 5:1 or 7:1 so I'd cut a little bit, maybe half.

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I believe that's the most snow the gfs has shown this far. I wonder if the nws will adjust accumulations
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#17 Postby Ntxw » Thu Dec 07, 2017 1:40 pm

Euro is very similar to the GFS, precip shield slightly further north. Probably 1-3" from south-central Louisiana to Northeast Georgia
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#18 Postby Jag95 » Thu Dec 07, 2017 1:45 pm

The best part is that this time we're talking more of a snow mix than freezing rain/sleet, which I can live without.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#19 Postby Steve » Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:15 pm

CajunMama wrote:Lafayette Parish has already called off school for Friday. :roll: There’s a POSSIBILITY of wintery precip. NWS as of now only has our low at 35.


Why the eye roll? It can snow into the 40's and it can sleet (seen it myself) in the 50's.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#20 Postby Ntxw » Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:12 pm

WFOs have rolled out winter weather advisories in pretty much the same areas modeled. The areas most likely upgraded to winter storm warnings might be in the eastern Alabama, and N Georgia portions since some areas there may exceed 3" from Birmingham to Atlanta. Snowjam 3.0?

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