Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

Winter Weather Discussion

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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#61 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Dec 09, 2017 8:33 am

Waking up to snow in Pensacola Florida in early December! Too cool!
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#62 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:47 am

Just measured 19cm(7.5 inches) of snow in my front yard. Areas west of town have higher accumulations (8 inch+), making this the largest snowstorm in NW GA since 1993.

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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#63 Postby cycloneye » Sat Dec 09, 2017 10:35 am

@GregPostel
Early view of the Deep South snow pack ... some if it is pretty deep, with 10+ inches in North Georgia #mswx #lawx #alwx #gawx


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 https://twitter.com/GregPostel/status/939516200878567427


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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#64 Postby Hammy » Sat Dec 09, 2017 10:48 pm

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I forgot to measure it (as I stayed up all night for it) but we got about a half into to an inch in the morning, but it all burned off when the sun came up.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#65 Postby Steve » Wed Dec 13, 2017 7:13 pm

Run the 18z GFS today. It's trending colder as it did closing in on the last event. There is currently 3 chances for snow/ice in the Deep South over the 16 day run. After a couple of lows move up from the S TX coast, a front comes down, stalls and lifts back up and is immediately followed by another. This is 11 day range but starting to hint at a possible white Xmas for some people in the South.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#66 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:29 pm

The potential is there. Gulf low..Arctic high. Active pattern regardless
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#67 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:50 pm

Ivanhater wrote:The potential is there. Gulf low..Arctic high. Active pattern regardless


Well, we will have to see how it all unfolds Ivanhater. I took a peek at the models 10 days out at 18Z earlier this afternoon and it looked to me that dreaded Southeast U.S. Ridge wants to flex its muscle as we get toward Christmas at the end of the run. It does show an impressive Arctic High. (1040s+mb) diving down from Western Canada down into the U.S. Plains. I will be curious to see the models in about 3 days from now. But, some portions of Texas and the Deep South may be facing the prospects of wintry precip, probably more the ice and freezing rain variety as it looks now. Still a lot of time to see how this plays out.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#68 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:09 pm

northjaxpro wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:The potential is there. Gulf low..Arctic high. Active pattern regardless


Well, we will have to see how it all unfolds Ivanhater. I took a peek at the models 10 days out at 18Z earlier this afternoon and it looked to me that dreaded Southeast U.S. Ridge wants to flex its muscle as we get toward Christmas at the end of the run. It does show an impressive Arctic High. (1040s+mb) diving down from Western Canada down into the U.S. Plains. I will be curious to see the models in about 3 days from now. But, some portions of Texas and the Deep South may be facing the prospects of wintry precip, probably more the ice and freezing rain variety as it looks now. Still a lot of time to see how this plays out.


Great post Jax. SE ridge is the key this winter. Great start for the deep south snow wise. Hopefully it will continue. Models seem to like Gulf lows forming
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#69 Postby Jag95 » Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:47 am

I don't know whether the models will handle this event, but over years it seems that they haven't handled polar expresses as well as some other features. But I agree, the ridge is the key. Over the last couple of days, that solution has fluctuated to a degree so it remains to be seen. Regardless, the last run I looked at last night had Texas covered in freezing rain, which is something I'd take a pass on. It's been an interesting winter so far. Wait, winter hasn't started yet.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#70 Postby MississippiWx » Fri Dec 15, 2017 11:05 am

Believe the pattern for late next week into Christmas is tricky. The Southeast Ridge should be rather stout. I am not sure how far the cold air will be able to progress. The progression will depend on the strength of the incoming Arctic high pressure and just how dense/cold the air associated with it is able to become. The stronger and colder the high pressure, the more likely it will blast on through most of the Southeast states (exception being Florida peninsula and near the Atlantic coastline of the Southeast states).

The 500mb level ridge over Alaska looks intense in ensembles. I have a hard time believing we won't see a large and strong area of high pressure drop out of NW Canada at some point next weekend if the Alaskan ridge turns out to be as strong as advertised. If this happens, low level cold air should blast all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. The problem with this scenario is that it could setup a rather potent ice storm somewhere in the South with such an active subtropical jet. We will see.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#71 Postby Ntxw » Fri Dec 15, 2017 3:18 pm

SE ridge may be a player early on but the lower level cold I bet will beat it down at the surface. The initial wave may dive south to Texas with the strong surface high but in time (near and after Christmas) the continent will be overwhelmed with cold air. The only place that might be mild to the New Year is S Florida. The GEFS and EPS pushes the cold eastward gradually. One thing to watch for here is the AO. A more negative AO would clamp down on the SE ridge.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#72 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Dec 17, 2017 3:23 am

The 0Z GFS run this evening going out to Christmas Day shows a massive 1058 mb Arctic High pushing through Saskatchewan and southeatward down into the Northern Plains Christmas Eve into Christmas Day. The 0Z EURO is showing 1060 mb Arctic High. WOW!!

A powerful arctic front will dive southeast into the Deep Southas we approach the latter part of this upcoming week. .A line of showers and precip will fall ahead and along that boundary. GFS is depicting changeover to snow all the way down to the coast of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. If this run were to come close to verifying, we could be seeing a major negative tanking of the AO in a big way. So, we are getting within 1 week of this event, and for those of you in the Deep South wanting winter weather fun , you may have a shot just in time for Christmas!

More later...
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#73 Postby Jag95 » Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:15 am

So, after losing it for the last several runs, the 06Z GFS has a band of snow back in the forecast for the central Gulf Coast. On Christmas Eve night no less.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#74 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:29 am

12z GFS has wintry weather for northern Gulf coast Christmas Day!~
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#75 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:35 am

models have been so up and down its crazy, prob won't know till Thursday what is going to happen or could happen.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#76 Postby PTPatrick » Mon Dec 18, 2017 1:30 pm

Ivanhater wrote:12z GFS has wintry weather for northern Gulf coast Christmas Day!~



It has been so crazy back and forth. Heading home to the coast and still not sure whether we will have mid to upper 70/ and soupy weather or an ice storm... :D But it certainly looks more promising for seasonal weather Vs a hot Christmas.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#77 Postby BigB0882 » Mon Dec 18, 2017 1:57 pm

Noticed an interesting thing with the latest GFS. The 850 temps go below freezing after precipitation ends. If that precip comes through later then higher snow chances maybe? Haven’t seen soundings but the cold air seems much deeper than when it was showing this a few days ago, the cold was extremely shallow then.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#78 Postby Agua » Mon Dec 18, 2017 5:20 pm

PTPatrick wrote:But it certainly looks more promising for seasonal weather Vs a hot Christmas.


A hot Christmas is seasonal weather along the Gulf Coast.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#79 Postby PTPatrick » Tue Dec 19, 2017 5:47 pm

Euro and gfs starting to come into better agreement with bringing front thru the central gulf coast by Saturday evening. threat of any southern snow next week seems to have diminished as well.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#80 Postby PTPatrick » Tue Dec 19, 2017 5:49 pm

Agua wrote:
PTPatrick wrote:But it certainly looks more promising for seasonal weather Vs a hot Christmas.


A hot Christmas is seasonal weather along the Gulf Coast.


Eh I'd say average tends to be around upper 50s and low 60/ down yonder at Christmas. I hate anything above 65 this time of year....couple years ago when we had the 80 degree Christmas with torrents of rain was garbage. Couple years before that we had tornado Christmas... I will take 50s and dry this year if it pans out.
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