Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

Winter Weather Discussion

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northjaxpro
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#181 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:32 pm

NWS Jax WFO now forcasting snowfall amounts around 2-4 inches around Alma, GA, and 1-3 inches around Waycross. Very cold, dry polar air locked in place across Southeast GA, with Alma and Waycross both at 29 degrees at 11:00 p.m. Brunswick on the coast is 32 degrees.

Dewpoints inland SE Georgia are in the single digits. I am really confident that away from the immediate coast, this is going to be a very significant snow event for Southeast Georgia no doubt. These snowfall totals may be a tad conservative. The precip is forecast to arrive as early as 5 a.m. , so I will make the quick 45 minute drive from my house very early this morning to hopefully be in place for this extremely rare treat in these neck of the woods!
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#182 Postby BigB0882 » Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:41 pm

Snow on radar making it to SELA. We’ve gone from 0% chance to suddenly 30%. I know it will not make the ground but maybe a flurry will be seen and we can officially have two recorded snowfalls in one winter.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#183 Postby MississippiWx » Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:57 pm

BigB0882 wrote:Snow on radar making it to SELA. We’ve gone from 0% chance to suddenly 30%. I know it will not make the ground but maybe a flurry will be seen and we can officially have two recorded snowfalls in one winter.


Your NWS forecast added 30% chance of snow to your forecast? In Baton Rouge?
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#184 Postby bella_may » Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:22 am

Mobile has added a chance of flurries as well. Also mentioned they're watching very closely.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#185 Postby BigB0882 » Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:42 am

The radar is really filling in. Can anything make it to the surface?
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#186 Postby La Breeze » Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:07 am

Light snow definitely falling in Kaplan, in Vermilion Parish.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#187 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Jan 03, 2018 8:45 am

Light snow now falling in Tallahassee, FL and Lake City, FL this hour.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#188 Postby Jag95 » Sat Jan 06, 2018 3:23 pm

The 12z GFS has an interesting setup for Friday. It shows a front passing with a weak low developing over GA helping to pull down enough colder air to have a chance of some snow on the back end before ending. Border line temp. Looks like both the Euro and CMC support that to a degree. Something to keep an eye on.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#189 Postby MississippiWx » Mon Jan 08, 2018 11:01 pm

Jag95 wrote:The 12z GFS has an interesting setup for Friday. It shows a front passing with a weak low developing over GA helping to pull down enough colder air to have a chance of some snow on the back end before ending. Border line temp. Looks like both the Euro and CMC support that to a degree. Something to keep an eye on.


0z NAM, GFS, and CMC all three show a changeover to snow on the back edge of the precip in North half of Louisiana, much of Mississippi, and continuing on into Alabama and Tennessee.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#190 Postby Sleet/Snow » Fri Jan 12, 2018 8:21 am

Weather Channel App showing some snow for the Hattiesburg, Ms area on Tuesday
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#191 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:56 am

00z Euro showing quite a bit of snow for the deep south including the gulf coast on Wednesday
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#192 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:42 am

GFS with some mix of all sorts for parts of the gulf coast region. It's going to be another potent arctic blast to start the work week.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#193 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:38 pm

:uarrow: Yes. GFS much more robust with an upper air shortwave disturbance diving down through the amplifying upper trough down into the Deep South Tuesday. 12Z GFS showing decent amount of wintry precip across Southern Mississippi, South Alabama and into parts of Georgia. The disturbance then moves northeast up toward the Carolinas late Tuesday into Wednesday. GFS also shows wintry mix even down into the Florida Panhandle. Tuesday. The arctic frontal boundary actually merges with the disturbance as well as it pushes southward to the Gulf Coast region during Tuesday. GFS eventually develops a Low Pressure area on Wednesday just off the North Carolina coast. This potentially could be a big snow storm for the Carolinas northward later next week.

We have already had two major winter storms in the Deep South so far this winter, and it is only mod January, so who knows. This may surprise as well.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#194 Postby BigB0882 » Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:46 pm

Any chance this could trend toward SELA? It looks like the moisture must move out too quickly for us or are the colder temps to our north and east?
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#195 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:51 pm

May see brief period of wintry mix around Baton Rouge late Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday. Keep an eye on this. This definitely could change .
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#196 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:01 pm

Wow, 12 z euro showing big snow for the deep south..even 3 inches for NW Florida!
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#197 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:10 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Wow, 12 z euro showing big snow for the deep south..even 3 inches for NW Florida!


Yes, much of La, Ms, AL and the FL Panhandle and parts of GA! Quite an arctic front.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#198 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:24 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Wow, 12 z euro showing big snow for the deep south..even 3 inches for NW Florida!


Yes I just saw that as well.Awaiting the 18Z GFS in a little while.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#199 Postby MississippiWx » Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:30 pm

It has snowed here in McComb for about an hour and a half today. Very much a surprise! We even had big flakes, not tiny graupel. Very exciting and cool to see!
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#200 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Jan 12, 2018 3:04 pm

Did any of it stick to the ground?



MississippiWx wrote:It has snowed here in McComb for about an hour and a half today. Very much a surprise! We even had big flakes, not tiny graupel. Very exciting and cool to see!
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