Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

Winter Weather Discussion

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Stormcenter
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#261 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Jan 16, 2018 4:27 pm

You are correct.


bella_may wrote:
Sleet/Snow wrote:I'm beginning to think now that the precip may dry out, (hope I'm wrong) but there really hasn't been much if any eastward progression in the last hour.. What are your thoughts northjaxpro?


Check the last few radar runs. Looks like it's finally moistinging up to me. But I'm not an expert
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#262 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jan 16, 2018 4:44 pm

bella_may wrote:
Sleet/Snow wrote:I'm beginning to think now that the precip may dry out, (hope I'm wrong) but there really hasn't been much if any eastward progression in the last hour.. What are your thoughts northjaxpro?


Check the last few radar runs. Looks like it's finally moistening up to me. But I'm not an expert


It is. Most of the radar returns you are seeing are now reaching the surface.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#263 Postby Agua » Tue Jan 16, 2018 5:36 pm

Temps in Biloxi are the highest they have been all day at 45, whereas the forecast was for the high to have been at 12.01 this morning and to have fallen all day to 37 by 5 p.m..
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#264 Postby BigB0882 » Tue Jan 16, 2018 5:52 pm

I have icicles forming on my roof and it looks like the snow is getting very close. TWC has upped accumulations to 1-3 inches where it was saying <1 inch all day. They must see that we may get under heavy enough bands to have decent snow accumulate because we haven't had any real sleet yet. I think it is going to come in as all snow after this freezing rain. Any sleet will probably be part of a very quick transition to snow.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#265 Postby Sleet/Snow » Tue Jan 16, 2018 5:56 pm

Looks like radar is beginn to fill in nicely!! Bring it on!! :cold: :froze:
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#266 Postby BigB0882 » Tue Jan 16, 2018 5:57 pm

Would that .07 inches of QPF that the GFS shows at the end of this be higher than 10:1 ratios with temps in the mid 20s? Not sure if ratios are dependent on surface or 850 temps more or if it is a combination? 850 temps are -1 C. so not a ton below freezing. It is rare for us to get snow with temps in the 20s.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KBTR
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#267 Postby Hurricane_Apu » Tue Jan 16, 2018 5:59 pm

Freezing drizzle and sleet has turned to a heavier sleet and graupel mix in Lafayette. Rooftops and surfaces are starting to turn white and pavement is starting to freeze now that the sun's going down.
This place is going to be an ice rink by tomorrow morning.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#268 Postby Jag95 » Tue Jan 16, 2018 6:11 pm

Saw and interesting blurb in the Mobile NWS discussion. Please make this so:

A few models are showing enhanced ascent/forcing
arriving near the I-65 corridor this evening as this area will be
in the right entrance region of the upper jet, so we will be
watching this region closely tonight for locally heavier
precipitation bands developing.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#269 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jan 16, 2018 6:15 pm

Jag95 wrote:Saw and interesting blurb in the Mobile NWS discussion. Please make this so:

A few models are showing enhanced ascent/forcing
arriving near the I-65 corridor this evening as this area will be
in the right entrance region of the upper jet, so we will be
watching this region closely tonight for locally heavier
precipitation bands developing.



Yep. I spoke about this earlier. That area in South and South Central Alabama could end up being in the area of greatest forcing and lift. It is possible that area could get 3-5 inches of accumulation of snow. I would watch that area the next several hours.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#270 Postby SunnyThoughts » Tue Jan 16, 2018 6:22 pm

Jag95 wrote:Saw and interesting blurb in the Mobile NWS discussion. Please make this so:

A few models are showing enhanced ascent/forcing
arriving near the I-65 corridor this evening as this area will be
in the right entrance region of the upper jet, so we will be
watching this region closely tonight for locally heavier
precipitation bands developing.


That sounds great, hope you guys hit that jackpot. Throw a little over to your east if you can spare a little!
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#271 Postby Hurricane_Apu » Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:01 pm

Changed over to all snow in Lafayette the past half hour and starting to accumulate quickly.
Stunning dendrites, perfect six-pointed stars. I've only ever seen that twice up north... never expected to see it here.

Image
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#272 Postby BigB0882 » Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:04 pm

Transitioning to snow in BTR. We may luck out with totals thanks to the temp dropping due to the timing of when the moisture moved in. Not that it will match our last event (3.5) but we might be able to squeek out an inch in what was, up until this afternoon, supposed to just be a trace event.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#273 Postby Jag95 » Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:07 pm

BigB0882 wrote:Transitioning to snow in BTR. We may luck out with totals thanks to the temp dropping due to the timing of when the moisture moved in. Not that it will match our last event (3.5) but we might be able to squeek out an inch in what was, up until this afternoon, supposed to just be a trace event.


You've got some really strong echos to your west. I'd think that had to be sleet but I thought it already transitioned over there.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#274 Postby BigB0882 » Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:11 pm

It depends where you are. The lady on the news was downtown and it looked like mostly snow (but still some sleet) while at my house (SE of them but still in the city) the transition just began and it is mostly sleet with some snow finally filling in. Unless there is a warm nose that comes up again then I would think it will be all snow within the next hour.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#275 Postby KimmieLa » Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:25 pm

BigB0882 wrote:It depends where you are. The lady on the news was downtown and it looked like mostly snow (but still some sleet) while at my house (SE of them but still in the city) the transition just began and it is mostly sleet with some snow finally filling in. Unless there is a warm nose that comes up again then I would think it will be all snow within the next hour.


All snow now in SE BTR and it is sticking to everything. The sleet was extremely heavy right before it started snowing. It really is pretty, as long as everyone stays off the roads and are safe. My roof is already white! Most of my yard has a very heavy dusting at this point. 2nd snow this season. Yay!
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#276 Postby BigB0882 » Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:37 pm

KimmieLa wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:It depends where you are. The lady on the news was downtown and it looked like mostly snow (but still some sleet) while at my house (SE of them but still in the city) the transition just began and it is mostly sleet with some snow finally filling in. Unless there is a warm nose that comes up again then I would think it will be all snow within the next hour.


All snow now in SE BTR and it is sticking to everything. The sleet was extremely heavy right before it started snowing. It really is pretty, as long as everyone stays off the roads and are safe. My roof is already white! Most of my yard has a very heavy dusting at this point. 2nd snow this season. Yay!


We are now almost all snow and I see some big flakes mixing in there. Hopefully we can get a few heavy bands before this ends to coat everything and make it look beautiful for tomorrow. I wonder how that might change our forecast highs for tomorrow?
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#277 Postby Hurricane_Apu » Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:40 pm

Under a convective band and back to heavy sleet... borderline hail... some of the pellets (stones?) are almost pea-sized.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#278 Postby bella_may » Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:57 pm

Starting to see some light sleet at my house in southeast Mississippi
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#279 Postby MississippiWx » Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:43 pm

Heavy snow in Hattiesburg.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#280 Postby BigB0882 » Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:57 pm

The snow really ended up being a bust in Baton Rouge. Started changing to snow, changed to all snow then back to sleet and now it looks like we are almost done. I guess a warm nose was sitting over us?
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