Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

[northjaxpro]

The time period to watch down the road will be Dec. 28 - Jan 2 2018 for a large portion of southern U.S.

Long range GFS is showing the potential of a massive Arctic High (1050s+ mb) will be sliding down the Lee side of the Rockies and into the Plains. Also, GFS is hinting at a very potent shortwave disturbance traversing on the STJS over the top of that shallow cold air over Texas and spreading east across a large area of the Deep South as we head into Near Year's Eve and New Year's Day. Of course, lots will change with this in the next 10 days. But, the potential of some type of winter mischief could be in the cards deep into Dixie as we turn the calendar to 2018.

[Agua]

But it certainly looks more promising for seasonal weather Vs a hot Christmas.

A hot Christmas is seasonal weather along the Gulf Coast.

Eh I'd say average tends to be around upper 50s and low 60/ down yonder at Christmas.

That's hot compared to where I grew up in central Miss.

[Hammy]

Latest GFS is backing off of much of a cooldown more than a day after the front, showing highs a good deal above normal.

[NDG]

GFS's solution of an epic massive Arctic 1055+mb high invading the whole central and eastern US for New Year's Day weekend is all alone with it, the Euro and CMC have been backing away from it.

[northjaxpro]

Also, the new 6Z GFS just out. really looks intriguing. In addition to the massive Arctic High dropping down into the Central and Eastern CONUS, GFS now showing a very active subtropical jet stream moving in over the cold, arctic air at the surface during the next 7-10 days. It is showing potential GOM Low forming on New Year's Day.

If you buy into the updated 6Z GFS, those wanting some winter weather in the Deep South may have a decent shot. If the GFS is close to being right, then a potential of wintry weather could take place across the Deep South and even down to the Gulf Coast from 12/30 - 1/2/18.

We will watch future model runs to see if we get closer to any consensus, especially given how the models have been all over the place recently. BUT, the potential is there for wintry precip next 7-10 days over the Deep South IF the ingredients all come together. More later.....

[northjaxpro]

Latest EURO is beginning to come into line with the GFS on a very significant cold spell coming down into the Central and Eastern CONUS beginning Dec 30 and lasting well into the first week of 2018.

In addition, models are showing a potential of an active subtropical jet stream moving over the cold dome of arctic air, which will likely be in place across the Deep South and even the Gulf Coast. The potential of wintry weather over the region is increasing with time. This most definitely is something to monitor closely, especially as we get into next weekend and New Year's Day!

[Hammy]

Euro went from a massive ice storm to not even having precipitation for hundreds of miles over the course of a single run.

[Ivanhater]

It sure looks cold next week...Teens all the way to the coast!

[northjaxpro]

Yeah Ivanhater I think the GFS will score a big coup on this arctic outbreak. CMC and now the new UKMET are now falling in line with what the GFS has been consistently showing for several days.

The Siberian Express looks likely to drop deep into the CONUS next week.

Also, keep a close watch on the Subtropical Jet beginning this weekend into next week as well. There could be some chance of wintry precip next week along the Gulf Coast and Deep South as well!!

[carolina_73]

I see the 12z gfs is bringing back that snowstorm for NC on New Years. What you guys think of this materializing?

[northjaxpro]

The 18Z. GFS is out and it shows a 1009 mb Low Pressure system moving out of the North east Gulf of Mexico and moving across North Florida on New Year's Day. A Southeast U.S. winter storm is being shown on the 18Z GFS and moves from North and Central Alabama and Georgia, then through the Carolinas, including the SC and NC coastal regions.

If the GFS runs come close to verifying this weekend, or shows a 1058 mb Arctic High dropping into Nebraska and Oklahoma during New Uear's Day. That is a super strong Polar High, and cold arctic air will likely be in place to support this type of storm.

Follow the models for particular trends. I would closely pay attention for everyone across the Southeast U.S. in the next few days as we get closer to New Year's weekend. One thing is for certain. Old Man Winter is coming one way or another!

[northjaxpro]

The 18Z. GFS is out and it shows. the potential of a 1009 mb Low Pressure system moving out of the Northeast Gulf of Mexico and moving across North Florida on New Year's Day. A Southeast U.S. winter storm is being shown on the 18Z GFS and moves from North and Central Alabama and Georgia, then through the Carolinas, including the SC and NC coastal regions.

If the GFS runs come close to verifying this weekend, it shows a 1058 mb Arctic High dropping into Nebraska and Oklahoma during New Year's Day. That is a super strong Polar High, and cold arctic air will likely be in place to support this type of storm.

Follow the models for particular trends. I would closely pay attention for everyone across the Southeast U.S. in the next few days as we get closer to New Year's weekend. One thing is for certain. Old Man Winter is coming one way or another!

[carolina_73]

:uarrow: The 18Z. GFS is out and it shows a 1009 mb Low Pressure system moving out of the North east Gulf of Mexico and moving across North Florida on New Year's Day. A Southeast U.S. winter storm is being shown on the 18Z GFS and moves from North and Central Alabama and Georgia, then through the Carolinas, including the SC and NC coastal regions.

If the GFS runs come close to verifying this weekend, or shows a 1058 mb Arctic High dropping into Nebraska and Oklahoma during New Uear's Day. That is a super strong Polar High, and cold arctic air will likely be in place to support this type of storm.

Follow the models for particular trends. I would closely pay attention for everyone across the Southeast U.S. in the next few days as we get closer to New Year's weekend. One thing is for certain. Old Man Winter is coming one way or another!

Thank you sir for that info. Is the EURO even starting to bite on this yet?

[northjaxpro]

Also, to follow up, 18Z GFS shows another shortwave moving through the base of the upper trough and moves it through the Deep South after the first potential storm on New Year's Day. GFS moves this next shortwave across AL, GA and the Carolinas on January 5, and develops a Low Pressure, which then undergoes rapid cyclogenesis off the Mid Atlantic coast by Jaunuary 6-7.

GFS is depicting a possible 1-2 storm punch during the first full week of 2018. Just one run. But, considering the arctic cold already in place up along the U.S. - Canada border, and the potential of it filtering south and east, plus an active subtropical jet stream added in the mix the next 7-10 days? Well it really makes you think that the GFS folks may not be totally off its rocker with its current runs and what it has been consistently showing for several days even before Christmas......

[Hammy]

Given the chronic north bias to the models lately, is it looking less likely that NE Georgia sees any further snow?

[Ntxw]

Given the chronic north bias to the models lately, is it looking less likely that NE Georgia sees any further snow?

Not sure about snow, but your chances are still there!

We need to wake up this thread. Threats of snow and ice deep into the south again. Always interesting to get a gulf low and incoming cold air. Trend the precip shield more north and you get a widespread winter event

[northjaxpro]

6Z GFS currently running shows 1012 mb Low Pressure crossing North Florida from the NE GOM during New Year's Day, then moves just off the SE U.S. coast by Tuesday morning 6Z.

Snow being outlined from the Carolinas southward to Savannah, and even farther south, a wintry mix down to Jacksonville as the cold arctic air filters in behind the Low Pressure area to changeover the precipitation. just before it moves out by 12Z next Tuesday 1/2/18.

[Ntxw]

Snow or not, going to be some persistent cold and below average that is already in place. Longest stretch of chill in the south since winter 2013/2014

[northjaxpro]

Yes Ntxw, the Deep South and Florida looks to be in a prolonged period of deep cold, observing the 6Z GFS this morning. We will get another arctic re'inforcement around next Thursday and lasting into next weekend (1-5 - 1/7)

[LarryWx]

Thanks, Jax, for your posts. You've been on top of this. For here in SE GA and nearby far S SC, there has been no period even remotely as promising for rare significant wintry precip POTENTIAL as the next week since 12/1989 and 1/1977. This next week has the makings of a once in several decade wintry period and it may not even be all from just one system. There is still the threat of at least a small amount of ZR between tomorrow afternoon and Fri AM. And then there is a threat of just about anything including a very rare accumulating snow chance for near or just after New Year's. Even Jacksonville and much of N FL is in the game for next week. How often can that be said?