Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#101 Postby Jag95 » Wed Dec 27, 2017 9:51 am

Ntxw wrote:
Hammy wrote:Given the chronic north bias to the models lately, is it looking less likely that NE Georgia sees any further snow?


Not sure about snow, but your chances are still there!

We need to wake up this thread. Threats of snow and ice deep into the south again. Always interesting to get a gulf low and incoming cold air. Trend the precip shield more north and you get a widespread winter event

As whacked out as the models have been in the mid to long range, I haven't been paying a lot of attention. It's getting in the near range now though. GFS shows a possible brief round of freezing rain here on the 1st. The crazy thing is that it's showing snow out in the Gulf south of here on Jan 2. That would be salty.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#102 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Dec 27, 2017 9:53 am

:uarrow: Yes Larry I am with you . The wintry precip chances for our area look about as promising as you will ever see for the next week.

All the necessary elements will be in place I.e, cold arctic air at the surface, an active subtropical jet stream moving over it. Its all about the timing of the disturbances moving along the southern stream jet .

Very interesting potential in this area in the coming days for sure!
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#103 Postby bella_may » Wed Dec 27, 2017 11:10 am

Latest gfs shows a possible wintry mix all the way down to the MS coast New Year's Day
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#104 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Dec 27, 2017 11:26 am

Canadian has it getting down to 6 degrees in Pensacola :lol:
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#105 Postby bqknight » Wed Dec 27, 2017 11:40 am

Ivanhater wrote:Canadian has it getting down to 6 degrees in Pensacola :lol:


And about 24 in Miami! :cold: :lol:
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#106 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Dec 27, 2017 12:10 pm

Updated 12Z GFS shows Low Pressure area still moving out of the NE GOM during New Year's Day. However, this run shows the Low being shunted more east and out to sea in the Western Atlantic. as opposed to what the 6Z run had earlier showing the Low moving up the SE U.S. coast. The moisture plume would have a hard time moving farther north. Looks this run the massive Arctic High is pushing down on the Low Pressure area and beginning to suppress the moisture.

Should this 12Z run be closer to verify, wintry precip would be confined over Central and South AL, Central and South GA and maybe as far south as portions of North Florida .

Still will get some other changes with this with future runs I am sure......
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#107 Postby Hammy » Wed Dec 27, 2017 11:08 pm

Looks like models are continuing to have a 500+ mile north bias and now showing very little snow or even precip now with the next system 120 hours out after showing a good amount of winter precip earlier. It's starting to feel pointless to check anything beyond the 60 hour NAM. :roll:
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#108 Postby carolina_73 » Wed Dec 27, 2017 11:21 pm

And just like that...nada :roll: Maybe later on in the month of Jan things will finally come together and the carolinas will get a decent snowstorm. What a waste of some good cold air!
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#109 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Dec 27, 2017 11:25 pm

Changes continue this evening with the 0Z GFS run. The Arctic High is shown suppressing the shortwave/weak Low Pressure feature farther south toward the GOM as the arctic frontal boundary sinks down into and the moisture is confined there.

Pretty much the 6Z GFS has just about dropped the Low Pressure feature going into late Monday afternoon. Well, I'll check the 6Z run early in the morning to see if this trend continues. Seems that this is trending to be a very cold and dry event for the moment...... Big change since even early this 6Z run from earlier today.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#110 Postby Sleet/Snow » Thu Dec 28, 2017 7:07 am

Now it looks like a chance of snow on Tuesday for southern Ms and South Al has popped up outta nowhere.. Thoughts?
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#111 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Dec 28, 2017 7:25 am

    is the 0z Euro showing snow for the gulf coast and where?
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#112 Postby Sleet/Snow » Thu Dec 28, 2017 7:45 am

I live in south Ms and my weather channel app is showing a 40% chance of snow Tues.. last night it showed Sunny for Tuesday
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#113 Postby BigB0882 » Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:15 am

People are mentioning the Euro showing snow to the Gulf coast. Starting in SETX and extending east. The maps on the Texas thread only showed...Texas. Can anyone say what the 0z Euro showed for Baton Rouge as far as any snow chances?
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#114 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:44 am

BigB0882 wrote:People are mentioning the Euro showing snow to the Gulf coast. Starting in SETX and extending east. The maps on the Texas thread only showed...Texas. Can anyone say what the 0z Euro showed for Baton Rouge as far as any snow chances?


Hearing 5 inches just north of New Orleans. Need maps! :lol:
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#115 Postby Ntxw » Thu Dec 28, 2017 9:15 am

Here you go the Euro snowfall maps from overnight 0z. Similar to early Dec but slightly angled further south

Image
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#116 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Dec 28, 2017 9:20 am

:uarrow: Yeah that would EPIC if this verified. But the pattern being shown by the models sets up about as good as you can get it for snowfall in the Deep South.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Dec 28, 2017 9:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#117 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Dec 28, 2017 9:21 am

Thanks! I like the looks of that!
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#118 Postby Ntxw » Thu Dec 28, 2017 9:22 am

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: Yeah that would EPIC if this verified. But the pattern being shown by the models sets up about as perfect as you can get it for snowfall in the Deep South.


Yep and long range guidance suggest more to come. The persistent +PNA has really quashed your typical SE ridge in a Nina. 500mb flow from the Pacific continues to be amplified. We may go like 2013/2014 that once a dominant Pac pattern has settled it is hard to get rid of
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#119 Postby bella_may » Thu Dec 28, 2017 11:32 am

Remember the GFS was the last model to come around on the last event and even then it underestimated the snowfall totals. The GFS has never been a good model for winter weather
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#120 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Dec 28, 2017 11:48 am

Who can I pay to get the Euro to verify? :lol: The amazing thing is the snow would likely stick around for a couple of days after given such cold temps, which is basically unheard of down here. However, the cold temps before this potential snow even would cause major travel problems across the south.
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