Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#121 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Dec 28, 2017 12:28 pm

The 12Z GFS is very interesting. It has the shortwave energy, which initially develops from the NW Gulf, moving southeastward into the GOM, then begins cyclogenesis in the SE GOM., then moves the deepening Low northeast across South Florida and rapidly intensifying just off the SE U.S. Coast and moves up off the Eastern U.S. Atlantic seaboard.This is the Tuesday'-Thursday timeframe next week..

The placement of this potential system during this timeframe is going to make all the difference. GFS for now is developing this potential winter storm much farther south than EURO. If the EURO ends up being more accurate with the track of the storm being along the Gulf Coast region , then we could be looking at the potential of a Deep South winter storm for the history books.

These next few days really could be really, really interesting folks..
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#122 Postby StormingB81 » Thu Dec 28, 2017 1:03 pm

I'm awaiting snow in central Florida again. It happened before it can happen again lol
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#123 Postby Jag95 » Thu Dec 28, 2017 1:13 pm

northjaxpro wrote:The 12Z GFS is very interesting. It has the shortwave energy, which initially develops from the NW Gulf, moving southeastward into the GOM, then begins cyclogenesis in the SE GOM., then moves the deepening Low northeast across South Florida and rapidly intensifying just off the SE U.S. Coast and moves up off the Eastern U.S. Atlantic seaboard.This is the Tuesday'-Thursday timeframe next week..

The placement of this potential system during this timeframe is going to make all the difference. GFS for now is developing this potential winter storm much farther south than EURO. If the EURO ends up being more accurate with the track of the storm being along the Gulf Coast region , then we could be looking at the potential of a Deep South winter storm for the history books.

These next few days really could be really, really interesting folks..


The CMC is very similar to the Euro, showing a broader precipitation field than the GFS and spreading snow along the northern Gulf during the same time span. If we can just get that low to develop a little further north then we'd really be in business.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#124 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Dec 28, 2017 1:42 pm

Anddddd the 12z Euro take it away
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#125 Postby Jag95 » Thu Dec 28, 2017 1:53 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Anddddd the 12z Euro take it away


Moved it a little further south and east, but at least it's still there. The Carolina coast is the winner in this run. I remember when this happened once before a few years ago when a low pressure developed in much the same fashion, swung south over central Florida and dumped 12 inches on South Carolina.

Hopefully it trends back north.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#126 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Dec 28, 2017 1:56 pm

It does have very cold conditions though. Has Pensacola around 16 degrees and never getting above freezing for a high next Friday :cold:
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#127 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:05 pm

Here in central North Carolina, I have not seen a multiple-inch snowfall since February 26, 2015, 1,036 days ago. Didn't even get a dusting from the early December storm, and the late January 2016 and early January 2017 systems both gave me about an inch of a sleet/snow mix. I just want to see a decent snowfall again. Maybe this will be the year.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#128 Postby carolina_73 » Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:21 pm

Anyone know what the totals were showing near myrtle beach area on that 12z euro run?
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#129 Postby Jag95 » Thu Dec 28, 2017 5:20 pm

carolina_73 wrote:Anyone know what the totals were showing near myrtle beach area on that 12z euro run?


Around 4 inches with places up around Virginia Beach getting a foot plus.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#130 Postby shannstone » Thu Dec 28, 2017 5:38 pm

So it seems snow potential at this time is not likely for the north of atlanta suburbs in the next week? Or should I hope for some "winter weather wobbles?" We got more than I could ask for a few weeks back but I guess I am being a little greedy. Northjaxpro was great with last storm and I am glad I listened to his posts rather than local news. They dropped the snowball with that one.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#131 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Dec 28, 2017 6:19 pm

shannstone wrote:So it seems snow potential at this time is not likely for the north of atlanta suburbs in the next week? Or should I hope for some "winter weather wobbles?" We got more than I could ask for a few weeks back but I guess I am being a little greedy. Northjaxpro was great with last storm and I am glad I listened to his posts rather than local news. They dropped the snowball with that one.


Well, I thank you for your kind sentiments. I just come on.here to share and lend my thoughts on these threads. I am glad that I helped to have you come on here to Storm2K to gather info on that winter storm which surprised some folks across the Southeast U.S. three weeks ago. 8-)


The current set up and pattern over the Deep South for the next week is about as good as you can hope for if you are hoping for wintry precipitation. Chances are pretty decent that areas in the Deep South will see this potential once more. It just all about the timing of these potential disturbances moving through the sub tropical jet and the potential track of the potential Low Pressure in the region. Cold certainly will not be an issue as there will be a motherload of arctic cold in place across the region next week.

Keep monitoring...
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#132 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Dec 29, 2017 9:08 am

It is a rough morning down in the Low Country of South Carolina this morning as a weak area of Low Pressure off the SE U.S. coast has spread light freezing rain over the Charleston area this morning. Hopefully it will be ending there later this morning as that Low pulls away out to sea.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#133 Postby Sleet/Snow » Fri Dec 29, 2017 10:13 am

It's hard to believe that it'll remain dry Monday-Saturday with all the cold air in place.. Gotta believe there will be a disturbance come through at some point
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#134 Postby Ntxw » Fri Dec 29, 2017 10:16 am

Sleet/Snow wrote:It's hard to believe that it'll remain dry Monday-Saturday with all the cold air in place.. Gotta believe there will be a disturbance come through at some point


There will be a disturbance Tues-Weds-Thurs that crosses from Texas to the northern gulf coast states. Models don't return a lot of moisture with it but sometimes, it's just so cold that it won't take much qpf to ring out some snow as the disturbance passes. Enough lift can be created to make a surprise little snow event.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#135 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Dec 30, 2017 5:38 am

:uarrow: I agree with you Ntxw. I have in the past seen the major reliable models often struggle with these upper level disturbances and I think they may not be doing this upcoming feature well either. These features can often take all the moisture available. and ring out every bit of moisture it has to work with, especially with these arctic air masses like what we have now.

This upper shortwave is rounding the base of the large and broad upper trough and forecast to sharply amplify the upper though down the Eastern CONUS during the Tuesday afternoon - Thursday afternoon timeframe. 6Z GFS this morning to me has really peaked my interest. The shortwave energy moving along the Northern GOM. will move directly over North Florida during that timeframe. This feature will put the wheels into motion of generating a developing area of Low Pressure just off the Florida East Coast. 6Z GFS bombs this Low, from 1007 mb just east of Cape Canaveral or in the NW Bahamas area on 18Z Wednesday, to a monster 972 mb storm off the Mid-Atlantic coast by Thursday evening.

So. that shortwave energy definitely bears watching. I will really be watching the NAM runs going forward because the NAM in my view is a very good model in the short to medium range (3-5 days of pending event) of forecasting winter-time synoptics and features. Do not lose sight how well the NAM did in forecasting the Southeast U.S. winter storm a few weeks ago in the short term, especially forecasting snowfall accumulations.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#136 Postby Sleet/Snow » Sun Dec 31, 2017 8:23 am

Anyone think there's a chance for a suprise along the gulf coast Tuesday night- Wednesday morning? Currently the forecast for my area (Hattiesburg Ms) has mostly cloudy for Tues night
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#137 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Dec 31, 2017 8:50 am

:uarrow: Well, FWIW, the latest EURO run shows a bit more moisture being
over the Gulf of Mexico with the upper level disturbance. The GFS keeps moisture much more limited with the shortwave, but hangs the energy back during Tuesday into Wednesday morning . This is due to the broad, large scaled upper trough really sharpening on Wednesday and inducing the development of a Low Pressure area just off the Florida East Coast late Tuesday into Wednesday.

GFS and EURO both are indicating this Low Pressure to intensify , and move northeast beginning Wednesday evening

I will be paying close attention to the NAM the next 2-3 days for trends to see if that model becomes aggressive with moisture with the upper shortwave feature as it traverses along the Northeast Gulf region and eventually across North Florida by mid week. The NAM is pretty good with these features in winter and that model will be important for me.

There is a tendency at times for these upper level vorts to surprise. The airmass is dry and very cold , but if there is sufficient moisture available, and the lifting and forcing dynamically is present, I have seen these type of systems squeeze all the moisture out it has around it.

So, yes there is a chance this upper shortwave could pull a surprise. It is not very likely, but there is a chance.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#138 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Dec 31, 2017 9:55 am

Also, keep a wary.eye on the developing Low Pressure system off the immediate Southeast Atlantic coast the middle of this week. GFS shows rapid cyclogenesis with this storm, forecasting 960 mb off New England by Thursday evening.

All it would take is for this system to wobble left closer to the coast than what the models are showing currently to significantly change the forecast the next couple of days.for everyone along the Southeast U.S. coastal region northward.

Just a quick observation.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#139 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun Dec 31, 2017 9:58 am

northjaxpro wrote:Also, keep a wary.eye on the developing Low Pressure system off the immediate Southeast Atlantic coast the middle of this week. GFS shows rapid cyclogenesis with this storm, forecasting 960 mb off New England by Thursday evening.

All it would take is for this system to wobble left closer to the coast than what the models are showing to significantly change the forecast the next couple of days.for everyone along the Southeast U.S. coastal region northward.

Just a quick observation.


Yep, 12z NAM shows some frozen precip across northeast FL and coastal portions of the Carolinas Wednesday into Thursday.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#140 Postby Sleet/Snow » Sun Dec 31, 2017 9:59 am

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: Well, FWIW, the latest EURO run shows a bit more moisture being
over the Gulf of Mexico with the upper level disturbance. The GFS keeps moisture much more limited with the shortwave, but hangs the energy back during Tuesday into Wednesday morning . This is due to the broad, large scaled upper trough really sharpening on Wednesday and inducing the development of a Low Pressure area just off the Florida East Coast late Tuesday into Wednesday.

GFS and EURO both are indicating this Low Pressure to intensify , and move northeast beginning Wednesday evening

I will be paying close attention to the NAM the next 2-3 days for trends to see if that model becomes aggressive with moisture with the upper shortwave feature as it traverses along the Northeast Gulf region and eventually across North Florida by mid week. The NAM is pretty good with these features in winter and that model will be important for me.

There is a tendency at times for these upper level vorts to surprise. The airmass is dry and very cold , but if there is sufficient moisture available, and the lifting and forcing dynamically is present, I have seen these type of systems squeeze all the moisture out it has around it.

So, yes there is a chance this upper shortwave could pull a surprise. It is not very likely, but there is a chance.

Thanks, always appreciate your input.
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