Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

Winter Weather Discussion

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Jag95
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#161 Postby Jag95 » Tue Jan 02, 2018 1:20 am

From reading the discussions at New Orleans and Mobile, most of any available moisture will be the further south you go, with dryer lower levels to the north. Still, wouldn't be surprised to see some flurries. Guess we'll see soon enough. The shortwave is now in Montana and the Dakotas and diving south.

NWS Mobile:
SHORT TERM /Tuesday night Through Thursday night/...The cold
surface ridge of high pressure to our north will continue to
slowly sink southward to the coast by noon Wednesday. The cold and
dry airmass will remain entrenched across the central gulf coast
region with much below normal temperatures continuing into Tuesday
night. An interesting upper level shortwave feature embedded in
the longwave trough will approach the region from the northwest
Tuesday evening, and pass quickly over the forecast area late
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This will bring some mid and
high level clouds above 8500 feet to the area Tuesday night along
with mid layer lifting. A very dry airmass will remain below 8500
feet, but if the snow falling in the saturated layer aloft
survives it`s journey through the dry layer to the surface we
could see a few flurries across portions of the forecast area.
Will leave mention of flurries out for now pending better high-
resolution model data on future runs.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#162 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:11 am

This is something you rarely see folks, but it is happening. I have been discussing this potential on the threads for over a week now:


NWS Jax WFO has issued Winter Storm Watch for interior Northeast Florida and all of Southeast Georgia. from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon.


Edit: Also, the NWS WFO in Charleston, SC has posted a Winter Storm Watch for their forecast zone region, which includes Savannah, GA metro area for early Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#163 Postby Jag95 » Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:50 am

New Orleans has bumped the chance of light snow to 30% for the extreme southern LA coast. Just seems strange :roll: that it could be snowing south of us tonight, even over the gulf waters. But nothing here.

NWS Mobile discussion:
Aloft a vigorous mid level short wave embedded in a persistent broad upper trof
over much of the eastern conus will approach the north central
gulf coast region from the northwest and west late today and early
tonight, moving across the region later tonight and early Wed
morning. With this pattern 1000 to 500 mb thickness levels
continue to lower through tonight with critical levels for wintery
precip moving well offshore overnight and early Wed morning. With
the cold dry airmass continuing in the lower levels of the
boundary layer through tonight most of the current model guidance
continues to show very limited moisture return reaching the
surface inland with this pattern. Better moisture in the lower to
middle levels is still noted well offshore late tonight and early
Wed, possibly leading to a mix of light rain and snow over the
marine area tonight and early wed. Model soundings support this
reasoning showing a deepening moisture layer aloft for most
locations of the forecast area late tonight through early Wed or
generally from 7k to 15k ft, combined with a deep dry pocket from
the surface to about 7k ft. With this the main concern will be the
availability of moisture in the lower levels of the boundary
layer through tonight combined with the strong vertical forcing or
accent ahead of the vigorous mid level impulse approaching from
the west and northwest.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#164 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:51 am

This morning's 12Z NAM shows snowfall potential of the developing winter storm off the Southeast U.S. Coast beginning late tomorrow through Thursday. Potential of snow accumulations all the way as far south as Northern Florida.



Image
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#165 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:54 am

Nam been struggling, rgem and Cmc has been ok short term with this system
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#166 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:35 pm

Charleston NWS office currently projecting 1-3 inch snowfall accumulations from the Savannah to Charleston, SC area as of now.

Jacksonville NWS sticking by 1/2 -1 inch potential over interior Northeast Florida and 1-2 inches over interior Southeast Georgia around Waycross, Alma and Jesup.

Jacksonville metro area, only a dusting of snow is currently forecasted . Freezing rain or sleet is more the threat in Jax metro area as of the 12 Z model runs from earlier this morning,

Keeping a very close eye on how much this changes as we head into tonight.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#167 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:38 pm

northjaxpro wrote:Charleston NWS office currently projecting 1-3 inch snowfall accumulations from the Savannah to Charleston, SC area as of now.

Jacksonville NWS sticking by 1/2 -1 inch potential over interior Northeast Florida and 1-2 inches over interior Southeast Georgia around Waycross, Alma and Jesup.

Jacksonville metro area, only a dusting of snow is currently forecasted . Freezing rain or sleet is more the threat in Jax metro area.


Northjaxpro, got to hand it to you, your instincts on this possible significant winter storm for portions of the SE US and NE Florida have been right on, kudos to you.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#168 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:40 pm

gatorcane wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:Charleston NWS office currently projecting 1-3 inch snowfall accumulations from the Savannah to Charleston, SC area as of now.

Jacksonville NWS sticking by 1/2 -1 inch potential over interior Northeast Florida and 1-2 inches over interior Southeast Georgia around Waycross, Alma and Jesup.

Jacksonville metro area, only a dusting of snow is currently forecasted . Freezing rain or sleet is more the threat in Jax metro area.


Northjaxpro, got to hand it to you, your instincts on this possible significant winter storm for portions of the SE US and NE Florida have been right on, kudos to you.


Thanks Gatorcane! I am just a weather geek , both doing for a living and at heart! 8-)
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#169 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jan 02, 2018 1:30 pm

FYI: The National Weather Service, with the most recent trends this morning of the models shifting the Intensifying Low Pressure area closer to the East Coast seaboard, has extended Winter Storm Watches all the way up the coast.

So the U.S. Eastern Seaboard from Northeast Florida through Mid-Atlantic coast is under a Winter Storm Watch.


EDIT: The NWS WFOs from Tallahassee FL and Jacksonville, FL have issued Winter Storm Warnings for their respective forecast zone regions beginning early tomorrow morning and lasting up unitl early tomorrow evening.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#170 Postby BigB0882 » Tue Jan 02, 2018 4:36 pm

The most southern portions of Louisiana are getting pretty decent snowfall right now. Looks like some may even get thunder snow. Snowing very hard just off the coast!
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#171 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Jan 02, 2018 4:43 pm

18Z GFS shifts west with much more of NC getting snow accumulation.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#172 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jan 02, 2018 4:43 pm

Wow 18Z GFS going with a stronger storm by a few MBs with colder temperatures over NE Florida/SE GA than what it has on the 12Z run...supporting more snow than wintry mix.

Looks like the track shifted west again and is just skirting the outer banks with heavy snow...
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#173 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jan 02, 2018 4:48 pm

Wow!! Just saw the new GFS run as we head into the evening. Man, this is just unbelievable how well this storm is coming together right over our area. It s becoming our "Perfect Winter Storm".
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#174 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:19 pm

Mods, do you feel it being necessary about having a separate thread away from this one about the rapidly developing and intensifying Southeast U.S.Coastal Winter Storm., which is organizing as we speak in the Florida Straits.

Given the fact that this storm has the potential to really become very significant, I feel it needs a separate thread of its own...
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#175 Postby Hammy » Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:30 pm

Any chance of this getting further west into NE Georgia? If not I think it's safe to say winter precip is over for the duration of the season here.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#176 Postby Jag95 » Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:07 pm

This is going to be fun to watch. How many times do you get a strong short wave phasing with a developing low pressure system at the perfect time with the kind of temperature you want. I'd venture to say not many times, especially in Florida? Got my fingers crossed for you winter weather lovers over there. :ggreen:

Finally put some snow flurries in my forecast, even putting in the discussion the mention of watching the trend in case of the "possibility" of precipitation becoming more expansive, with the higher resolution model showing the layer saturating down to 5000ft. I'll probably spend most of my time living vicariously for the next 24 hours though if this pans out to the east...lol.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#177 Postby CajunMama » Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:19 pm

BigB0882 wrote:The most southern portions of Louisiana are getting pretty decent snowfall right now. Looks like some may even get thunder snow. Snowing very hard just off the coast!


And that is just not fair! :grr: :grr: :grr: :grr:
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#178 Postby Jag95 » Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:39 pm

The radars are showing winter precipitation expanding in Arkansas/Eastern OK and some scattered in SE TX and La. I'm sure a lot of it isn't reaching the ground, but I do see where the NWS has added flurries in the forecast to a large portion of MS and AL now. Hopefully we can get a little more Gulf moisture involved.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#179 Postby La Breeze » Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:08 pm

CajunMama wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:The most southern portions of Louisiana are getting pretty decent snowfall right now. Looks like some may even get thunder snow. Snowing very hard just off the coast!


And that is just not fair! :grr: :grr: :grr: :grr:

Light snow being reported in Pecan Island here in Vermilion Parish.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#180 Postby Jag95 » Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:38 pm

La Breeze wrote:
CajunMama wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:The most southern portions of Louisiana are getting pretty decent snowfall right now. Looks like some may even get thunder snow. Snowing very hard just off the coast!


And that is just not fair! :grr: :grr: :grr: :grr:

Light snow being reported in Pecan Island here in Vermilion Parish.


Looking good to your west too...and building.
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