Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

Winter Weather Discussion

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Jag95
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#221 Postby Jag95 » Mon Jan 15, 2018 10:36 am

Looks like the models are starting to trend back in the right direction again. The 12z NAM shows light snow making it through to the coast now. CMC is not as dry either. Not sure what the ICON is (European I think), but I like it.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#222 Postby BigB0882 » Mon Jan 15, 2018 10:59 am

I believe the ICON is a German model. My worry is this may become a surprise event and the timing could be bad for evening rush hour around SELA. People could end up surprised.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#223 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:02 am

Graphics please....thanks!

Jag95 wrote:Looks like the models are starting to trend back in the right direction again. The 12z NAM shows light snow making it through to the coast now. CMC is not as dry either. Not sure what the ICON is (European I think), but I like it.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#224 Postby Jag95 » Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:20 am

Stormcenter wrote:Graphics please....thanks!

Jag95 wrote:Looks like the models are starting to trend back in the right direction again. The 12z NAM shows light snow making it through to the coast now. CMC is not as dry either. Not sure what the ICON is (European I think), but I like it.


Canadian looks much better on the 12z.

model link: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#225 Postby bella_may » Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:24 am

Wow. CMC and NAM both showing light to moderate snow all the way down to the coast tomorrow night. GFS doesn't but is still further south than it was. Gotta wonder if they'll raise chances above 30%
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#226 Postby bella_may » Mon Jan 15, 2018 3:20 pm

18Z NAM continues to show snowfall all the way down to the beach and is also a little slower on the dry air coming in
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#227 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Jan 15, 2018 3:29 pm

Graphic again please....many thanks!


bella_may wrote:18Z NAM continues to show snowfall all the way down to the beach and is also a little slower on the dry air coming in
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#228 Postby Sleet/Snow » Mon Jan 15, 2018 4:09 pm

NWS in Mobile.Al just issued a winter weather advisory for southeast MS, Southwest, Al and western Florida panhandle.. Says isolated areas up to 1 inch of Snow!! :cold: :cold:
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#229 Postby PTrackerLA » Mon Jan 15, 2018 4:11 pm

They just closed schools here for tomorrow, I would be shocked if a Winter Weather Advisory is not issued shortly. Nearly all guidance shows at least some accumulating frozen precipitation tomorrow afternoon/evening.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#230 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Jan 15, 2018 5:48 pm

Yes, CMC and NAM have trended a bet more moist in their afternoon runs. I would not be surprised to see Baton Rouge NWS office issue winter weather advisory by tomorrow morning. Looks like the arctic front will have good forcing and lift along and just behind it as it moves to the Gulf Coast region by Wednesdsy morning.These type of systems could spring a surprise on some folks. It will be interesting to watch the next 36 hours.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#231 Postby BigB0882 » Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:14 pm

Baton Rouge is not under a WWA so all schools are open which means I have to drive to work...over the MS bridge. I’m hoping they let us go early if it looks like any chance of wintry precipitation will arrive during the afternoon drive home. I don’t want to be stuck across the river! Making the call for the WWA tomorrow morning will be too late.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#232 Postby JSDS » Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:09 pm

:uarrow: I’m pretty sure I heard Jay say that he expected us to be added into the WWA by the 10:00 news time. That’s not official, of course. Also, I’m technologically challenged and am not sure if there is a way to get something from fb to s2k, but the New Orkeans NWS office has an interesting post from about an hour ago. When speaking of what’s expected for us outside the WWA area, they emphasized the words “at this time”. They also mentioned the models trending toward more moisture. So, there’s still hope!
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#233 Postby bella_may » Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:17 pm

The GFS has finally come aboard with the other models
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#234 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:50 pm

Uh oh looks like SE LA./SW MS. are now in the mix. I expect advisories to be posted tomorrow am. IMO
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#235 Postby PTrackerLA » Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:57 pm

00z GFS came in much more robust with precipitation about .2" liquid in south central LA (less than .10" last run) now all while below freezing. Could get interesting by early afternoon here.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#236 Postby Jag95 » Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:01 am

bella_may wrote:The GFS has finally come aboard with the other models


I was kind of wondering about the last NAM. I usually look at the 12km and it only showed scattered snow showers, but it looks like it laid down about the same amount of snow as the 18z. The 32km shows it better. I guess I'll wait up for the Euro now. I beginning to think we might see another accumulating snowfall. Two in one year would be very rare. I can't think of but one other year that happened here; back in the '70s I think.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#237 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:48 am

Looks like the wintry stuff is heading westward into LA. and MS.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#238 Postby Jag95 » Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:21 am

The new NAM looks nice. 3 inches in Baton Rouge and 2 in Biloxi. Looks like between 1 and 2 over this way. Not sure how much is sleet.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#239 Postby BigB0882 » Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:41 am

Jag95 wrote:The new NAM looks nice. 3 inches in Baton Rouge and 2 in Biloxi. Looks like between 1 and 2 over this way. Not sure how much is sleet.


Where do you see this? Looking on Twisterdata the NAM is giving Baton Rouge between 3 tenths and half an inch of something (sleet/snow). I don't see anyone getting 3 inches on the NAM, not even up north. Is Twisterdata reliable for their snow outputs or is it a run behind? I think it said 12z.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#240 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:43 am

Jag95 wrote:The new NAM looks nice. 3 inches in Baton Rouge and 2 in Biloxi. Looks like between 1 and 2 over this way. Not sure how much is sleet.



Yes, the models trended much more moist overnight and I am seeing pretty good return inflow of moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico this morning. I would not be shocked in the least given how strong the dynamics are with the upper trough deepening and lift along and behind the arctic front, snowfall accumulations could surprise a lot of folks in the region.
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