Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

Winter Weather Discussion

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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#241 Postby bella_may » Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:58 am

northjaxpro wrote:
Jag95 wrote:The new NAM looks nice. 3 inches in Baton Rouge and 2 in Biloxi. Looks like between 1 and 2 over this way. Not sure how much is sleet.



Yes, the models trended much more moist overnight and I am seeing pretty good return inflow of moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico this morning. I would not be shocked in the least given how strong the dynamics are with the upper trough deepening and lift along and behind the arctic front, snowfall accumulations could surprise a lot of folks in the region.


Getting light rain at 42 degrees now
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#242 Postby Jag95 » Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:11 am

BigB0882 wrote:
Jag95 wrote:The new NAM looks nice. 3 inches in Baton Rouge and 2 in Biloxi. Looks like between 1 and 2 over this way. Not sure how much is sleet.


Where do you see this? Looking on Twisterdata the NAM is giving Baton Rouge between 3 tenths and half an inch of something (sleet/snow). I don't see anyone getting 3 inches on the NAM, not even up north. Is Twisterdata reliable for their snow outputs or is it a run behind? I think it said 12z.


The NAM map I'm looking at includes sleet (tropical tidbits). I don't think the one on Twister does. Twister sounding prediction shows a warm nose so that probably explains it. On the plus side, the discussions I've read have mentioned a quick transition from wintry mix to all snow.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#243 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:37 am

Jag95 wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:
Jag95 wrote:The new NAM looks nice. 3 inches in Baton Rouge and 2 in Biloxi. Looks like between 1 and 2 over this way. Not sure how much is sleet.


Where do you see this? Looking on Twisterdata the NAM is giving Baton Rouge between 3 tenths and half an inch of something (sleet/snow). I don't see anyone getting 3 inches on the NAM, not even up north. Is Twisterdata reliable for their snow outputs or is it a run behind? I think it said 12z.


The NAM map I'm looking at includes sleet (tropical tidbits). I don't think the one on Twister does. Twister sounding prediction shows a warm nose so that probably explains it. On the plus side, the discussions I've read have mentioned a quick transition from wintry mix to all snow.



Yes because thermal profiles become very favorable for precip to changeover to all snow tonight across the region. The sleet and freezing rain will be of short duration in those areas that get that.

BTW, 12Z GFS holds onto the moisture a bit longer along and just behind the arctic frontal boundary up through 18Z tomorrow afternoon. Areas over the Florida Panhandle northeast through South Georgia, into the Carolinas could see wintry precip tomorrow.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#244 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:38 am

Down to 34 degrees here, light snow being reported just to my north in Opelousas and it hasn't started to precipitate yet. Looks like everything today will be in the form of freezing rain/sleet/snow.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#245 Postby NativeFloridaGirl » Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:43 am

[/quote]Yes because thermal profiles become very favorable for precip to changeover to all snow tonight across the region. The sleet and freezing rain will be of short duration in those areas that get that.

BTW, 12Z GFS holds onto the moisture a bit longer along and just behind the arctic frontal boundary up through 18Z tomorrow afternoon. Areas over the Florida Panhandle northeast through South Georgia, into the Carolinas could see wintry precip tomorrow.[/quote]

It doesn't seem anyone can agree what Southeastern Alabama might see. Does the 12z GFS include us in more precip for tonight and tomorrow as well?
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#246 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:07 pm

Very light snow flurries flying in Lafayette right now!
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#247 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:11 pm

NativeFloridaGirl wrote:
Yes because thermal profiles become very favorable for precip to changeover to all snow tonight across the region. The sleet and freezing rain will be of short duration in those areas that get that.

BTW, 12Z GFS holds onto the moisture a bit longer along and just behind the arctic frontal boundary up through 18Z tomorrow afternoon. Areas over the Florida Panhandle northeast through South Georgia, into the Carolinas could see wintry precip tomorrow.


It doesn't seem anyone can agree what Southeastern Alabama might see. Does the 12z GFS include us in more precip for tonight and tomorrow as well?


The best chance of seeing frozen precipitation across Southeast Alabama will be tomorrow morning from 6Z - 15Z. The models show the post frontal precip lingering in that area during that window, before the precip exits out of the region.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#248 Postby BigB0882 » Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:24 pm

Temp down to 35 and lightly sprinkling in Baton Rouge. The school I work at is not letting us out until 1:30 I think this could end up being a huge mistake, especially considering all other districts around us are closed. Many of the teaches have to cross the MS River bridge to get home (work in WBR) and there is an Intercoastal bridge that the buses have to cross to take children home.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#249 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:44 pm

All schools in Escambia and Santa Rosa counties are closed tomorrow. Wintry precip chances jumped to 70%. What changed?
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#250 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:50 pm

Ivanhater wrote:All schools in Escambia and Santa Rosa counties are closed tomorrow. Wintry precip chances jumped to 70%. What changed?


Well, NAM CMC was finally joined by the GFS in that the models are in agreement that the arctic front descending upon the Gulf Coast region is coming in much more robust with the moisture. The GFS was always much drier, until last night when it finally started agreeing with NAM and CMC.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#251 Postby BigB0882 » Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:52 pm

I feel like all the moisture is dying off right before it gets to BTR. Am I just being impatient? I am almost off of work, I want to get across the bridge but then I want it to come down.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#252 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:04 pm

Lots more behind it.


BigB0882 wrote:I feel like all the moisture is dying off right before it gets to BTR. Am I just being impatient? I am almost off of work, I want to get across the bridge but then I want it to come down.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#253 Postby Sleet/Snow » Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:11 pm

BigB0882 wrote:I feel like all the moisture is dying off right before it gets to BTR. Am I just being impatient? I am almost off of work, I want to get across the bridge but then I want it to come down.

Be patient, looks like it'll be in the area for a while once it arrives.. Wouldn't br surprised to see areas in South Louisiana get a couple inches
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#254 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:15 pm

Sleet/Snow wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:I feel like all the moisture is dying off right before it gets to BTR. Am I just being impatient? I am almost off of work, I want to get across the bridge but then I want it to come down.

Be patient, looks like it'll be in the area for a while once it arrives.. Wouldn't br surprised to see areas in South Louisiana get a couple inches


I agree. I think several areas in Louisiana, Mississippi and into Alabama will see 1-3 inches, possibly more in certain areas where the best forcing and lift occurs along the frontal boundary.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#255 Postby Sleet/Snow » Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:34 pm

northjaxpro wrote:
Sleet/Snow wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:I feel like all the moisture is dying off right before it gets to BTR. Am I just being impatient? I am almost off of work, I want to get across the bridge but then I want it to come down.

Be patient, looks like it'll be in the area for a while once it arrives.. Wouldn't br surprised to see areas in South Louisiana get a couple inches


I agree. I think several areas in Louisiana, Mississippi and into Alabama will see 1-3 inches, possibly more in certain areas where the best forcing and lift occurs along the frontal boundary.

Also looks like it'll be moving into Southeast Louisiana and Southeast Mississippi around dark so hopefully it'll changeover from sleet to snow sooner than it would if it were moving in now
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#256 Postby Sleet/Snow » Tue Jan 16, 2018 3:30 pm

I'm beginning to think now that the precip may dry out, (hope I'm wrong) but there really hasn't been much if any eastward progression in the last hour.. What are your thoughts northjaxpro?
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#257 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jan 16, 2018 3:41 pm

Sleet/Snow wrote:I'm beginning to think now that the precip may dry out, (hope I'm wrong) but there really hasn't been much if any eastward progression in the last hour.. What are your thoughts northjaxpro?


Well, it takes time for the atmosphere to moisten up in this situation. Also, the general area of precip will move east/southeast as the arctic front pushes in toward the Gulf Coast. Once the upper trough axis sharpens (500 mb height drops), the coldest and driest air mass will usher into the region and then you will see the end of the precipitation. This will happen during the next 12-18 hours.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#258 Postby KimmieLa » Tue Jan 16, 2018 4:05 pm

BigB0882 wrote:I feel like all the moisture is dying off right before it gets to BTR. Am I just being impatient? I am almost off of work, I want to get across the bridge but then I want it to come down.


Hope you made it safely across the MS River bridge. Not fun even on a sunny day. It has been sleeting off and on at my house in southeast BTR for th last 20 minutes. Stay warm, BigB, and I hope we all see the flakes fly!
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#259 Postby SunnyThoughts » Tue Jan 16, 2018 4:15 pm

Good luck everybody, hope everyone sees some flakes. Glad they closed all schools for here tomorrow. I was able to take a walk in a nice snow shower in early December here in Pensacola. Hope I get to do the same overnight into tomorrow morning.
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Re: Deep South Winter 2017-2018 (LA, MS, GA, FL, NC, SC)

#260 Postby bella_may » Tue Jan 16, 2018 4:23 pm

Sleet/Snow wrote:I'm beginning to think now that the precip may dry out, (hope I'm wrong) but there really hasn't been much if any eastward progression in the last hour.. What are your thoughts northjaxpro?


Check the last few radar runs. Looks like it's finally moistening up to me. But I'm not an expert
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