Will the Great Lakes Freeze Over Before They Begin to Thaw (2018) ?

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Will the Great Lakes Freeze Over Before They Begin to Thaw (2018) ?

Poll ended at Tue May 08, 2018 6:59 am

Yes
3
25%
Tie
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No votes
No
9
75%
 
Total votes: 12

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Will the Great Lakes Freeze Over Before They Begin to Thaw (2018) ?

#1 Postby WeatherGuesser » Mon Jan 08, 2018 6:59 am

Previous Thread: viewtopic.php?f=22&t=116168


With the forecast prolonged cold, will there be a new run at the record?

Current is 29.5%

https://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/glsea ... ea_cur.png
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Re: Will the Great Lakes Freeze Over Before They Begin to Thaw (2018) ?

#2 Postby WeatherGuesser » Mon Jan 08, 2018 7:04 am

As Michigan endures a deep freeze, with wind chills hitting double digits below zero this morning, our Great Lakes are facing an abnormal rate of ice coverage just several days into the new year.

Try these numbers on for size: The Great Lakes are already 21.99% covered in ice as of Jan. 4, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association's Great Lakes Coast Watch. On that day in 2017, they were 3.11% covered. On that day in 2016, they were 1.12% covered.


https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/ ... 006773001/
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Re: Will the Great Lakes Freeze Over Before They Begin to Thaw (2018) ?

#3 Postby WeatherGuesser » Mon Jan 08, 2018 7:12 am

Saved graphic showing 29.5% as of 1/7/18

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Re: Will the Great Lakes Freeze Over Before They Begin to Thaw (2018) ?

#4 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sat Jan 13, 2018 9:39 am

Brief warmup (and maybe winds) took a big toll. Down to 17.1% as of 1/12
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Re: Will the Great Lakes Freeze Over Before They Begin to Thaw (2018) ?

#5 Postby WeatherGuesser » Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:15 am

Last cold snap brought it back to 29.8%. Long way to go to get anywhere near the record and I sure hold it doesn't stay cold enough anywhere outside the GL region.
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Re: Will the Great Lakes Freeze Over Before They Begin to Thaw (2018) ?

#6 Postby WeatherGuesser » Tue Jan 16, 2018 4:38 am

32.1% as of the 1/15 analysis.

Another warmup coming for some areas, but will it affect that region?
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Re: Will the Great Lakes Freeze Over Before They Begin to Thaw (2018) ?

#7 Postby WeatherGuesser » Tue Jan 16, 2018 5:16 am

Side effects:


The Midwest's recent cold snap quickly ramped up ice coverage on Lake Erie, an easy feat because of its shallow depth compared to the rest of the Great Lakes. In the beginning of January, Lake Erie was at a mere 20 percent ice cover. Today? Ice spans just under 80 percent of the lake surface. Because of that moisture cut-off, some sun will return to the area.

Lake Erie's ice is also suppressing what would be a widespread snow event Tuesday as a low-pressure system quickly sneaks through the region that night. At most a few flurries will pop up, but if it wasn't for that icy lake, Northeast Ohio could've seen a few inches of snow.


http://www.cleveland.com/weather/blog/i ... verag.html
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Re: Will the Great Lakes Freeze Over Before They Begin to Thaw (2018) ?

#8 Postby Bolster » Wed Jan 24, 2018 11:01 am

Any recent info? 80% ice coverage seems a lot to me. I would have never guessed it.
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Re: Will the Great Lakes Freeze Over Before They Begin to Thaw (2018) ?

#9 Postby NotSparta » Wed Jan 24, 2018 11:09 am

Bolster wrote:Any recent info? 80% ice coverage seems a lot to me. I would have never guessed it.


I think it's around 100% now, Lake Erie is relatively easy to freeze. Not so much the other lakes.
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Re: Will the Great Lakes Freeze Over Before They Begin to Thaw (2018) ?

#10 Postby NotSparta » Wed Jan 24, 2018 11:26 am

Coverage has been hanging around 20-21% lately, would be hard to freeze the rest of the 80% in a month or two unless there was a much longer, much more intense version of the December-January cold snap, and with average temps warming in February, it would be extremely difficult if possible.

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Re: Will the Great Lakes Freeze Over Before They Begin to Thaw (2018) ?

#11 Postby WeatherGuesser » Wed Jan 24, 2018 1:08 pm

^^ Yeah, not looking that way this year any more. I sure hope it doesn't get that cold for that long.
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Re: Will the Great Lakes Freeze Over Before They Begin to Thaw (2018) ?

#12 Postby NotSparta » Wed Jan 24, 2018 3:09 pm

WeatherGuesser wrote:^^ Yeah, not looking that way this year any more. I sure hope it doesn't get that cold for that long.


Much more than recent winters though.
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Re: Will the Great Lakes Freeze Over Before They Begin to Thaw (2018) ?

#13 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sun Feb 04, 2018 1:12 pm

Not even gonna get close. It hasn't been over 30% yet that I've seen and there isn't an extended cold period in sight. Another week and temperatures will be on the upswing for the season.

That big cold blast was unpleasant, but short-lived overall.
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Re: Will the Great Lakes Freeze Over Before They Begin to Thaw (2018) ?

#14 Postby NotSparta » Sun Feb 04, 2018 3:13 pm

WeatherGuesser wrote:Not even gonna get close. It hasn't been over 30% yet that I've seen and there isn't an extended cold period in sight. Another week and temperatures will be on the upswing for the season.

That big cold blast was unpleasant, but short-lived overall.


Yep. Here, it's supposed to be 20's for a week or so then another warmup. By the end of that, we're already getting into late February, and it's hard to get a good freeze up after that (sure, it got cold last March, but that'll have to happen again to just get near 50% coverage). It did look like it might approach it in early January, but the thaw stunted the ice coverage and the cold is mostly in the northern Plains.
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Re: Will the Great Lakes Freeze Over Before They Begin to Thaw (2018) ?

#15 Postby WeatherGuesser » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:29 am

I'm beginning to wonder about their methods. It suddenly jumped from 29.1% to 43.2%
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Re: Will the Great Lakes Freeze Over Before They Begin to Thaw (2018) ?

#16 Postby WeatherGuesser » Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:34 am

Umm... OK :eek: :double:


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Re: Will the Great Lakes Freeze Over Before They Begin to Thaw (2018) ?

#17 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sat Feb 10, 2018 6:26 am

62.5

Primarily Erie, Huron and Superior


Is it really that much colder across the lakes than areas just south of there? Is the ice making colder water grow more ice regardless of air temperatures??
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Re: Will the Great Lakes Freeze Over Before They Begin to Thaw (2018) ?

#18 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sun Feb 11, 2018 5:30 am

64.3

Primarily Huron and Superior advancing.

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Re: Will the Great Lakes Freeze Over Before They Begin to Thaw (2018) ?

#19 Postby NotSparta » Sun Feb 11, 2018 7:08 am

Especially Superior is in that Midwest freeze so no wonder it's freezing up

Won't hit the record though since Ontario would need to cooperate and the pattern looks warmer
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Re: Will the Great Lakes Freeze Over Before They Begin to Thaw (2018) ?

#20 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sun Feb 11, 2018 11:19 am

MARQUETTE — Area residents may have noticed that bitterly cold, snowless days with an unusual amount of sunshine have been a common feature of the past week.

Strangely enough, the root cause of the sunshine and lack of snow is Lake Superior’s increasing ice coverage during the early weeks of February, a result of the recent wave of cold weather.

The sub-normal temperatures of early February have provided a “perfect setup… that’s been (a) big trigger for ice expansion,” said Matt Zika, warning coordination meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Marquette. “If we do have significant ice growth and ice coverage on the lake, it shuts down the lake-effect snow process.”

He explained that increasing ice coverage on the lake is analogous to putting a lid over a pot of boiling water, as the ice cover limits the amount of water evaporating into the atmosphere from the lake.

Less evaporating lake water means less moisture will rise into the air, which decreases the amount and possibility of lake effect snow and cloud cover in the area.

This explains all of the sunshine recently — there has been a dramatic increase in Lake Superior’s ice coverage since January when the ice coverage on the lake rarely exceeded 20 percent according to data from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory.

On Monday, the average ice coverage on Lake Superior was around 46 percent, which is far over the 25 to 30 percent average for early February, according to GLERL. Most of the ice coverage was concentrated at the shorelines, with average ice thickness across the lake at just over 3 inches and large sections in the eastern portion of the lake with little-to-no ice cover.

By late Friday, over 65 percent of the lake was covered in ice.



http://www.miningjournal.net/news/front ... -splendor/
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