Texas Winter 2018-2019

Winter Weather Discussion

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Portastorm
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#921 Postby Portastorm » Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:38 am

srainhoutx wrote:Guidance is suggesting winds may well be gusting 40 to close to 60 MPH as the compact vertically stacked storm traverses Texas. Folks in Oklahoma, North and possibly portions of Central Texas could see those higher gusts. Gales are likely along the Upper Texas Coast into Louisiana. Travel issues are looking likely due to high winds and if you have plans on flying Thursday or Friday, you may need to re evaluated and plan for cancellations.


Thanks for raising this issue, srain. It's going to be a Texas headline grabber for sure. We're advising folks in our area to plan to deflate and tie down those Christmas inflatables or else they'll end up in College Station. :wink:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#922 Postby Ntxw » Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:40 am

Portastorm wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:Guidance is suggesting winds may well be gusting 40 to close to 60 MPH as the compact vertically stacked storm traverses Texas. Folks in Oklahoma, North and possibly portions of Central Texas could see those higher gusts. Gales are likely along the Upper Texas Coast into Louisiana. Travel issues are looking likely due to high winds and if you have plans on flying Thursday or Friday, you may need to re evaluated and plan for cancellations.


Thanks for raising this issue, srain. It's going to be a Texas headline grabber for sure. We're advising folks in our area to plan to deflate and tie down those Christmas inflatables or else they'll end up in College Station. :wink:


Areas that sees snow, likely will be in real time blizzard conditions. Quarter mile visibility and 30mph+ winds
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#923 Postby orangeblood » Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:43 am

Ntxw wrote:
Portastorm wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:Guidance is suggesting winds may well be gusting 40 to close to 60 MPH as the compact vertically stacked storm traverses Texas. Folks in Oklahoma, North and possibly portions of Central Texas could see those higher gusts. Gales are likely along the Upper Texas Coast into Louisiana. Travel issues are looking likely due to high winds and if you have plans on flying Thursday or Friday, you may need to re evaluated and plan for cancellations.


Thanks for raising this issue, srain. It's going to be a Texas headline grabber for sure. We're advising folks in our area to plan to deflate and tie down those Christmas inflatables or else they'll end up in College Station. :wink:


Areas that sees snow, likely will be in real time blizzard conditions. Quarter mile visibility and 30mph+ winds


Would be an unusual site to see with wind driven heavy wet snow, I'd imagine not a lot of road surface issues though with ground temps well above freezing!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#924 Postby losf1981 » Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:44 am

SnowintheFalls wrote:Hope DFW gets it's snow so we can all go back to wishing for more snow without sounding greedy! lol #winteriscoming


I don't worry about sounding greedy! Move north if you want better chances of snow! :wink:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#925 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:46 am

Ntxw wrote:
Portastorm wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:Guidance is suggesting winds may well be gusting 40 to close to 60 MPH as the compact vertically stacked storm traverses Texas. Folks in Oklahoma, North and possibly portions of Central Texas could see those higher gusts. Gales are likely along the Upper Texas Coast into Louisiana. Travel issues are looking likely due to high winds and if you have plans on flying Thursday or Friday, you may need to re evaluated and plan for cancellations.


Thanks for raising this issue, srain. It's going to be a Texas headline grabber for sure. We're advising folks in our area to plan to deflate and tie down those Christmas inflatables or else they'll end up in College Station. :wink:


Areas that sees snow, likely will be in real time blizzard conditions. Quarter mile visibility and 30mph+ winds


Reminds me of the time I drove to Yellowknife, NT... Lordy, a Canadian Plains blizzard is nothing to screw with. I was an idiot, 25 years old, and way too much of a Winter Weather Chaser.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#926 Postby orangeblood » Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:49 am

Latest NAM has let up on the 850mb winds a little but still almost approaching hurricane force just 4-5k ft up!! :double:

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#927 Postby weatherdude1108 » Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:53 am

Portastorm wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:Guidance is suggesting winds may well be gusting 40 to close to 60 MPH as the compact vertically stacked storm traverses Texas. Folks in Oklahoma, North and possibly portions of Central Texas could see those higher gusts. Gales are likely along the Upper Texas Coast into Louisiana. Travel issues are looking likely due to high winds and if you have plans on flying Thursday or Friday, you may need to re evaluated and plan for cancellations.


Thanks for raising this issue, srain. It's going to be a Texas headline grabber for sure. We're advising folks in our area to plan to deflate and tie down those Christmas inflatables or else they'll end up in College Station. :wink:


I have neighbors across from me that have several inflatables in their front yard. They are NNE of my house (general upgradient direction of the predicted winds). So basically, I'm hoping they have them strapped down pretty well, otherwise, my house may inherit a couple of those inflatables. :P :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#928 Postby Haris » Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:56 am

Image

This gets Close !
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#929 Postby Cerlin » Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:57 am

Did DFW do something to offend the NAM?? I don’t understand why these systems always keep dying right as it approaches DFW :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#930 Postby TheProfessor » Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:59 am

Definitely an impressive storm. 3KM NAM would appear to have thundersnow out west. DFW might want this system to approach faster, a night hit would be better for accumulating snowfall.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#931 Postby TheProfessor » Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:02 am

Cerlin wrote:Did DFW do something to offend the NAM?? I don’t understand why these systems always keep dying right as it approaches DFW :lol:


Someone told the NAM I'm coming to town so it's doing what storms like to do on the models in Ohio(dying out before it reaches me) before ultimately ending up somewhere else. If the pattern is correct storms like to end up a bit south or west of me. This means it will be a Waco-Austin storm. However, if the storm is faster and occurs well before I fly in then DFW has a chance :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#932 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:18 am

Looking forward. The cold temps continue to stay in Asia for the next couple weeks. If the bathtub slosh theory plays out like JB has said in the past, i'd expect January to turn sharply. This SSW that is forecast could be what gets it going.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#933 Postby JayDT » Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:46 am

Im just trying to tell myself over and over that its better to not be in the bullseye this far out..... :roll: Cause this is starting to get really annoying.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#934 Postby spencer817 » Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:59 am

Another troll run by the GFS this time, I try not to get caught up in models but wow DFW is cursed if we don't get something out of this. :roll:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#935 Postby Ralph's Weather » Tue Dec 11, 2018 11:19 am

This is another bonus storm we have not yet settled into the true winter pattern yet. Late Dec through Feb is when we will have our real chances. These dynamic storms will then be supported by blocking at the upper latitudes.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#936 Postby rwfromkansas » Tue Dec 11, 2018 11:42 am

I have a hard time believing this storm would just die out before DFW. It's dynamic.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#937 Postby orangeblood » Tue Dec 11, 2018 11:54 am

rwfromkansas wrote:I have a hard time believing this storm would just die out before DFW. It's dynamic.


The problem is it has a limited amount of cold air to work with that it's bringing down from Canada....as soon as it bombs out the clock is ticking before the warm gulf air gets entrained/erodes all of the cold air!!! This looks like it'll be a quick hitter for a lucky few counties in North Texas

You can see this on the models out of this sequence....1st frame it has a direct tap into Canada, then 2nd frame it is cut-off and eroding quickly

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#938 Postby Brent » Tue Dec 11, 2018 12:02 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:I have a hard time believing this storm would just die out before DFW. It's dynamic.


The issue i see is after needing a slower trend now we need it move in faster if it waits til later Friday then good luck because the only way this works is to come in early morning before the sun comes up. Thats why the bullseye is west of us now

But we are still over 48 hours out and I'm sure the models arent on their final solution yet. Just ask OKC last week :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#939 Postby rwfromkansas » Tue Dec 11, 2018 12:12 pm

Ah, that makes sense. I didn't see why it was an issue. Let's hope it comes in fast enough.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#940 Postby AubreyStorm » Tue Dec 11, 2018 12:20 pm

:cold:
Yessssss! Snow .....

Image
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