Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Brent]

mid week storm snowing to the coast in Louisiana on the Euro after it passes us is there like a hex around here?

Where in Louisiana? Thanks in advance.

between Lake Charles and NW of Baton Rouge

er probably more of a mix but still more than was in Texas

[gpsnowman]

Pretty muggy and warm this morning. At least it will feel like January in a couple days, snow or no snow.

[wxman57]

Yeah, that looks like sleet in the 00Z Euro between Lake Charles and Baton Rouge early Wednesday. Not even a freeze in Houston from this "Arctic front" as the Fort Worth NWS office keeps calling it. There's no Arctic air on the move southward. It's more of a Northern Plains front, and the air temperature there is relatively mild for January. A low of 27 degrees in D-FW isn't Arctic air. If an Arctic front was on the way, I'd expect to see temps 20-30 below zero (or colder) in the area I circled - spreading down into Montana.

[HockeyTx82]

Yeah, that looks like sleet in the 00Z Euro between Lake Charles and Baton Rouge early Wednesday. Not even a freeze in Houston from this "Arctic front" as the Fort Worth NWS office keeps calling it. There's no Arctic air on the move southward. It's more of a Northern Plains front, and the air temperature there is relatively mild for January. A low of 27 degrees in D-FW isn't Arctic air. If an Arctic front was on the way, I'd expect to see temps 20-30 below zero (or colder) in the area I circled - spreading down into Montana.

http://wxman57.com/images/Canada.JPG

I think they saw your post. If you look at the graphic this morning on the site it's called a cold air. I think the temps went way up too. Last weekend might have been cooler I think...........

[Texas Snow]

No, their forecast discussion still calls it arctic this morning

[HockeyTx82]

No, their forecast discussion still calls it arctic this morning

Ah ok, only us weather nerds would look there I just hit the homepage on my cell.

[Texas Snow]

I looked to see what they said about Saturday and next Wednesday (which wasn't much yet this far out).

When nothing is going on I don't read it but if there is even a tiny a chance of something fun, I read it religiously.

[orangeblood]

+++PNA!!!

[Snowman67]

Yeah, that looks like sleet in the 00Z Euro between Lake Charles and Baton Rouge early Wednesday. Not even a freeze in Houston from this "Arctic front" as the Fort Worth NWS office keeps calling it. There's no Arctic air on the move southward. It's more of a Northern Plains front, and the air temperature there is relatively mild for January. A low of 27 degrees in D-FW isn't Arctic air. If an Arctic front was on the way, I'd expect to see temps 20-30 below zero (or colder) in the area I circled - spreading down into Montana.

http://wxman57.com/images/Canada.JPG

As much as I don't like it, I have to admit that your wall building skills are impressive.

[Cerlin]

It’s so hard to be optimistic. I just want to throw in the towel and call it quits for winter, but the rest of it looks promising and I’m grasping on, barely. I hope snow can come my way soon...

[rwfromkansas]

Uh oh. It keeps getting pushed back. That’s a trend. I have been optimistic. But, time to face reality. Model trends matter. Saturday is gone. Real lasting cold probably gone. We will see February....but probably the same crap. This is how Mother Nature laughs at our attempts at long-term forecasting.

[Cerlin]

Uh oh. It keeps getting pushed back. That’s a trend. I have been optimistic. But, time to face reality. Model trends matter. Saturday is gone. Real lasting cold probably gone. We will see February....but probably the same crap. This is how Mother Nature laughs at our attempts at long-term forecasting.

Exactly. People can get mad because we’re “giving up hope” with promising trends but every promising trend of the last few years has left us with diddly squat. My only hope for DFW winter weather is a -PNA...

[Haris]

Yeah I just can’t be optimistic anymore... I hope I’m wrong

[Portastorm]

Wasn't there a Ramones song that went: "The PNA took my winter away" ?

[gboudx]

I've learned to never let Lucy talk me into lining up to kick the football. I've dang near broke every bone in my back before I learned my lesson. I'm more of a Nowcast winter weather observer. Even when things are looking good, I don't get excited. When things are looking bad, I don't get depressed.

[Ralph's Weather]

Looks like our best hope is the Euro for Sat. It has the low tracking along I-30 vs most other models having it north of the Red River. Euro shows flurries to an inch as you move north from I-20 to the Red River. Other models not so good though.

[dhweather]

I've learned to never let Lucy talk me into lining up to kick the football. I've dang near broke every bone in my back before I learned my lesson. I'm more of a Nowcast winter weather observer. Even when things are looking good, I don't get excited. When things are looking bad, I don't get depressed.

Best way to be. Don't expect wintry precip, don't get your hopes up, 99% of the time, they will be crushed.

[wxman57]

Don't give up on winter (i.e., snow) just yet in the D-FW area. There are still 2 months left of winter. The pattern remains good for TX snow with that active southern stream. We just need to get some colder air in place ahead of these storms. I'm not seeing any big snow chance through January, though. Euro builds a pretty deep upper low over southern Hudson Bay by day 10, with northerly flow out of NW Canada. Ridge building on the west coast then, too. It's not cross-Polar flow, but it could bring some sub-freezing air to Texas by early February. However, if that ridge gets too strong along the west coast then it might shut off the southern storm track and we'd be left with a dry cold. Delicate balance.

[Ralph's Weather]

We need the PNA to stay near neutral to allow the STJ to continue to roar. This time of year we do not have to have extreme cold anomalies to get cold enough for snow so while blocking is nice we need the STJ more and just moderate blocking so as to not suppress things too far.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

WxMan is right, no real cold air in the NW territories, which is typically our source region. Where is it? Under the PV near Hudson Bay and Siberia. The air in Siberia is still brutally cold and i think if we want Canada to cool down first, the air in Siberia needs to be tapped. If we can drag one of those HP's this way, would help alot.