Texas Winter 2018-2019

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5661 Postby Brent » Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:19 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Brent wrote:The 18z GFS is entirely different

Zero snow for most but 30 inches in Alabama :roflmao:


Oh, come on, it's only 20-25 inches for Alabama. ;-)


Oh my bad the clown map has 37 inches :roflmao:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5662 Postby Haris » Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:33 pm

Image
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Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5663 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:39 pm

sphelps8681 wrote:Rented a cabin in Nacogdoches. We will be arriving the 18th. Any signs we may get snow/sleet/freezing rain? Will be leaving to go back home on the 21st. Need to know how to pack.


it's possible but too early to tell. All guidance point to an impactful system that will bring rain and thunderstorms at the very least followed by and with cold air within the time period you posted. Timing of course is tbd. If packing I'd take all necessary supplies.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5664 Postby Brent » Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:47 pm



Gonna be hard to top the 12z for us
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5665 Postby spencer817 » Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:54 pm

I agree with ThunderSleet, hopeful for the coming weeks. Our best storms come around this time!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5666 Postby sphelps8681 » Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:40 pm

Ntxw wrote:
sphelps8681 wrote:Rented a cabin in Nacogdoches. We will be arriving the 18th. Any signs we may get snow/sleet/freezing rain? Will be leaving to go back home on the 21st. Need to know how to pack.


it's possible but too early to tell. All guidance point to an impactful system that will bring rain and thunderstorms at the very least followed by and with cold air within the time period you posted. Timing of course is tbd. If packing I'd take all necessary supplies.


I know things change on a constant basis. But hey the Farmers Almanac calls for winter snow/mix during that time period. Gotta be true!! LOL!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5667 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 11, 2019 10:06 pm

So what's changed? Well the Pacific. We finally got the tropical convection to move out of the maritime continent and into the Pacific. That allowed the subtropical jet to come back roaring. Now we are looking at an AEJ extension which is pushing along the MJO into the P7-8-1-2 through later Feb and early March. We've been looping in the same 6-7 phases for over a month without much movement. What does that all mean? It means the Pacific Northwest trough gets flushed also down to the Southern Rockies and out into the Southern Plains. This is likely our last real shot for a comeback, it's game over if this fails.

Perhaps wxman57's wall is cracking. So far it's been bend but don't break.

Image

For me though, my intrigue is always with ENSO. The subtropical jet's strength coupled with what is now happening over the tropical Pacific is like a golden nugget. Highly anomalous, much like early 2015 not for the snow but the extreme OLR and WWB. It will be a fascinating few months in the ENSO world.

Image

GOES 17 will be lit up for us to watch the Pineapple Express flex.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5668 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Mon Feb 11, 2019 10:09 pm

Ntxw wrote:So what's changed? Well the Pacific. We finally got the tropical convection to move out of the maritime continent and into the Pacific. That allowed the subtropical jet to come back roaring. Now we are looking at an AEJ extension which is pushing along the MJO into the P7-8-1-2 through later Feb and early March. We've been looping in the same 6-7 phases for over a month without much movement. What does that all mean? It means the Pacific Northwest trough gets flushed also down to the Southern Rockies and out into the Southern Plains. This is likely our last real shot for a comeback, it's game over if this fails.

Perhaps wxman57's wall is cracking. So far it's been bend but don't break.

https://images2.imgbox.com/50/93/FXN50KdZ_o.gif


Time to break out the C4, bourbon and bad decision making.

In Porta’s well documented case, an extra large bottle of Goose!

BUILD POLAR BRIDGES NOT CANADIAN WALLS!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5669 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 11, 2019 10:19 pm

Here's a view of GOES 17 (west) on CIRA. Pacific is angry and on the far left near the EQ is 92P trying to become a tropical cyclone in the CPAC. EPAC may start it's ACE year early.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5670 Postby Brent » Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:27 pm

0z GFS dry Monday very cold rain Tuesday in the mid upper 30s with snow NW of the metro maybe ending as flurries Tuesday Night

Need more solutions like the 12z :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5671 Postby Cerlin » Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:54 pm

Brent wrote:0z GFS dry Monday very cold rain Tuesday in the mid upper 30s with snow NW of the metro maybe ending as flurries Tuesday Night

Need more solutions like the 12z :lol:

Agreed...but the trends still look good imo AND it drops another massive snowstorm on the 25th. Winter’s whispers are slowly murmuring louder.
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Let it snow NTX!

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5672 Postby Brent » Tue Feb 12, 2019 12:09 am

Cerlin wrote:
Brent wrote:0z GFS dry Monday very cold rain Tuesday in the mid upper 30s with snow NW of the metro maybe ending as flurries Tuesday Night

Need more solutions like the 12z :lol:

Agreed...but the trends still look good imo AND it drops another massive snowstorm on the 25th. Winter’s whispers are slowly murmuring louder.


I just want one of these storms to be inside 5 days... is that so hard?
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5673 Postby Haris » Tue Feb 12, 2019 1:36 am

weeklies were very dry :grr: but I don't buy it!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5674 Postby Brent » Tue Feb 12, 2019 1:54 am

The 0z euro sucks all rain for the early week

GEFS not impressed either

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5675 Postby Tammie » Tue Feb 12, 2019 6:17 am

Is this referencing our system for Monday of next week?
https://twitter.com/jimcantore/status/1 ... 4685256704
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5676 Postby wxman57 » Tue Feb 12, 2019 8:14 am

Let's play a Facebook click bait game but without the ads. "Only one in 100 meteorologists can spot the anomalous GFS run (as far as snowfall in Texas) for next Monday. Are you a genius?"

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5677 Postby orangeblood » Tue Feb 12, 2019 8:29 am

wxman57 wrote:Let's play a Facebook game. "Only one in 100 meteorologists can spot the anomalous GFS run for next Monday. Are you a genius?"



Ok, let's play another game...Count the number of GFS Ensemble members showing accumulating snow for DFW in the picture ?

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5678 Postby wxman57 » Tue Feb 12, 2019 8:36 am

The GFS 2m temperature forecast (from 12Z yesterday) for next Tuesday morning is so different from every other runs that it's hard to explain. What factor(s) led to this vastly different solution? Different (can't call it bad until we see if it verifies) initialization data?

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5679 Postby wxman57 » Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:00 am

orangeblood wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Let's play a Facebook game. "Only one in 100 meteorologists can spot the anomalous GFS run for next Monday. Are you a genius?"



Ok, let's play another game...Count the number of GFS Ensemble members showing accumulating snow for DFW in the picture ?

http://i68.tinypic.com/2cep5ow.jpg


Yeah, and the 00Z GFS ensembles had 4 members with snow in DFW. GFS is all over the place each run. 00Z Euro has 32 as the coldest temp in DFW next week (Wednesday).

I think we need to wait until this weekend's model runs to see more agreement.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#5680 Postby orangeblood » Tue Feb 12, 2019 11:22 am

wxman57 wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Let's play a Facebook game. "Only one in 100 meteorologists can spot the anomalous GFS run for next Monday. Are you a genius?"



Ok, let's play another game...Count the number of GFS Ensemble members showing accumulating snow for DFW in the picture ?

http://i68.tinypic.com/2cep5ow.jpg


Yeah, and the 00Z GFS ensembles had 4 members with snow in DFW. GFS is all over the place each run. 00Z Euro has 32 as the coldest temp in DFW next week (Wednesday).

I think we need to wait until this weekend's model runs to see more agreement.


Well what's the fun in that ? Long range forecasting is no more than gambling in Vegas...up for a wager ?
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