Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Cpv17]

This cold front that just passed through is weak. Temps have risen here throughout the day instead of falling. Not impressed it’s 57 degrees here some front that was

[orangeblood]

This cold front that just passed through is weak. Temps have risen here throughout the day instead of falling. Not impressed it’s 57 degrees here some front that was

Front was incredibly potent in DFW...I think it's time for you to move locations, your standards of "winter" doesn''t quite match up with your locale!! The truth is you will be disappointed more often than not living below that parallel and proximity to the Gulf of Mexico

[Cpv17]

This cold front that just passed through is weak. Temps have risen here throughout the day instead of falling. Not impressed it’s 57 degrees here some front that was

Front was incredibly potent in DFW...I think it's time for you to move locations, your standards of "winter" doesn''t quite match up with your locale!! The truth is you will be disappointed more often than not living below that parallel and proximity to the Gulf of Mexico

The front we had back in November was stronger than this one. This is just a slightly stronger than normal front here for this time of year.

[Ntxw]

This cold front/cold air has been driven by the ULL. Amarillo is 43F, 28F in OKC, 38F in DFW, and 33F in Texarkana. It has lost umph once it hit I-10 due to the ULL moving away. We'll likely see more incidences like this the next couple of weeks. Next Weds may be similar.

[Cpv17]

This cold front/cold air has been driven by the ULL. Amarillo is 43F, 28F in OKC, 38F in DFW, and 33F in Texarkana. It has lost umph once it hit I-10 due to the ULL moving away. We'll likely see more incidences like this the next couple of weeks. Next Weds may be similar.

Thanks. I’m about 30-40 miles south of I-10.. so that makes sense for my location.

[Haris]

It's a nice windy chilly winter day across Austin. High today around 53F. Looking at a light freeze tonight.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

This cold front that just passed through is weak. Temps have risen here throughout the day instead of falling. Not impressed it’s 57 degrees here some front that was

Front was incredibly potent in DFW...I think it's time for you to move locations, your standards of "winter" doesn''t quite match up with your locale!! The truth is you will be disappointed more often than not living below that parallel and proximity to the Gulf of Mexico

The front we had back in November was stronger than this one. This is just a slightly stronger than normal front here for this time of year.

Exactly what I’ve been thinking. Sure it’s cool and we might see a light freeze for a night but by Tuesday will be pushing 70 once again. Just a normal “winter” for us, nothing out of the ordinary by any means.

[hamburgerman7070]

Ntxw, what do we need to take place for a better pattern setup for us in the southern plains? Im also curious why havent we gotten a -nao yet? That would lock in the cold air for us instead of progressive like we still have

[Ntxw]

A couple things to watch for North Central and Northeast Texas. Midweek we may experience something similar but qpf may be too far SE (hoping for a NW trend somehow). Then next Saturday NW flow commences and a strong disturbance will dive south from the high plains. Early prognostics says cold is too dry to support but if it can find moisture in the cold, dry air snow showers would be possible with the lift. Think New Year's day 2001.

For the southern half of the state will have to wait until the +PNA can relax some or for the NAO to tank if it does.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, what do we need to take place for a better pattern setup for us in the southern plains? Im also curious why havent we gotten a -nao yet? That would lock in the cold air for us instead of progressive like we still have

A -NAO will help if we can get one, but not so negative that it shoves the cold too far east. A relaxation of the PNA would assist too. A baja low would be good about now.

[hamburgerman7070]

Ntxw, what do we need to take place for a better pattern setup for us in the southern plains? Im also curious why havent we gotten a -nao yet? That would lock in the cold air for us instead of progressive like we still have

A -NAO will help if we can get one, but not so negative that it shoves the cold too far east. A relaxation of the PNA would assist too.

Two more things, do you think we will realistically have to wait until February for a better pattern setup for us and i read from mike ventrice that he believes we wont have much mjo influence in February due to the walker dobson circulation.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, what do we need to take place for a better pattern setup for us in the southern plains? Im also curious why havent we gotten a -nao yet? That would lock in the cold air for us instead of progressive like we still have

A -NAO will help if we can get one, but not so negative that it shoves the cold too far east. A relaxation of the PNA would assist too.

Two more things, do you think we will realistically have to wait until February for a better pattern setup for us and i read from mike ventrice that he believes we wont have much mjo influence in February due to the walker dobson circulation.

Your location is in a good spot the rest of January for opportunities of snow. I do agree with him the MJO is going to be less of a factor going forward as it is weakening.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Problem is, it’s always 10 -14 days out and still looking that way. At this point in time I have given up on the great winter weather that the Deep South was supposed to be set up for this year, but would just like to see some prolonged cold weather before we hit our spring time severe weather season.

[DFW Stormwatcher]

Yes, as much as we cry about near misses in dfw, we do have near misses which makes winter interesting. We actually have a lot of direct hits, especially in the northern burbs with good snow/ice events. Only Wichita Falls, lubbockand Amarillo rank higher as metros in terms of winter weather events. Particularly cold weather, much colder here than Houston or Austin much less the Valley. I’ve lived in The Houston area and the valley, I am glad this area affords me a chance at real winter almost every year. People talk about our drought of winter here, all of our neighborhood ponds and lakes in Frisco froze over twice last year for multiple days, I spent one of those mornings at Lale Texoma in 19 degree weather watching large sheets of ice and icicles on the big rocks near the water at Eisenhower state park after several single digit lows on previous nights, so to me last year was no bust except for snow.

[Ntxw]

Today is one of those days with a quirk in record books for DFW. Decades later if one looked today would show a high of 61F (midnight) and a low of 34 and trace of snow. 61/34 doesn't even register as a below normal yet the daytime high has yet to hit 40F with wind chill in the 20s.

[DFW Stormwatcher]

Today is one of those days with a quirk in record books for DFW. Decades later if one looked today would show a high of 61F (midnight) and a low of 34 and trace of snow. 61/34 doesn't even register as a below normal yet the daytime high has yet to hit 40F with wind chill in the 20s.

Since 6am the high here at Frisco has been 34, but yes 60’s at midnight so appears normal.

[Cerlin]

I’m not terrIbly impressed with any of the runs recently but it looks like the ridge over the Rockies is slowly degrading. Could be wrong though, I know little.

[bubba hotep]

18z FV3 with a long range winter wx event but we all know how this goes, gone next run

[hamburgerman7070]

18z FV3 with a long range winter wx event but we all know how this goes, gone next run

https://i.ibb.co/XpS1RRH/fv3p-mslp-pcpn-frzn-us-fh264-342.gif

Bubba, is there any reason why we cant get a -nao to lock in the pattern of consistent cold instead of everything seems so progressive still?

[harp]

Is this mic on??