Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Snowman67]

Snow reported in College Station.

[WinterMax]

Light snow, windy 35 degrees, Magnolia Texas

[Snowman67]

A few flurries here on the north side of Tomball

[Yukon Cornelius]

The official 1st freeze of Winter 2018-19 happened this morning Nov 10th, that's 8 days earlier than my predicted 18th, and the earliest first freeze since October 30th 1993.

This also follows my analog year of 76-77 which had its first freeze Nov 13th.

As for the possibility of snow next week, just dont see it for the immediate DFW area, but those north along the RedRiver and from Wichita Falls down to Bowie could see a dusting.

got a dusting today in Wichita Falls.

where at in WF? I was there all day and didn't see anything sticking.

[disneymanda]

Extremely light snow in NW Houston. I am hoping some of the white stuff falls heavier soon!

[vbhoutex]

Houston has officially had the earliest snowfall on record as of 10am this morning with a trace recorded at IAH. Reports of sleet/snow flurries all the way to Galveston!

[Cpv17]

Houston has officially had the earliest snowfall on record as of 10am this morning with a trace recorded at IAH. Reports of sleet/snow flurries all the way to Galveston!

Honestly, it’s astonishing.

[OKMet83]

After another shot of colder air Sun into Mon I see Thanksgiving looking relatively seasonable with highs from the mid 50s to low 60s across Northern/Central TX to near 70 down around Houston... Hold on though! I don't have a lot of time for a lengthy post tonight but a Cold and stormy pattern is coming BEFORE Christmas early to mid Dec will be interesting! Stay tuned my friends!

[Snowman67]

After another shot of colder air Sun into Mon I see Thanksgiving looking relatively seasonable with highs from the mid 50s to low 60s across Northern/Central TX to near 70 down around Houston... Hold on though! I don't have a lot of time for a lengthy post tonight but a Cold and stormy pattern is coming BEFORE Christmas early to mid Dec will be interesting! Stay tuned my friends!

Can you fill us in a bit?

[Ntxw]

Alright gang, It is time to go all in. I'll probably eat crow for this. But hey, it's easy to say maybe warm, maybe cold, some snow but always be careful it may not. That's too easy a cop out!

At some point you want to make predictions based on something anomalous and actually go with an outcome. The precursors for this winter is about as good as it gets before it happens. If you're ever going to predict a cold, snowy winter and this isn't the year, you're never going to do it with the chips shown. Because it doesn't get any better.

I'm going for DJF in the Texas Triangle - Dallas-San Antonio/Austin-Houston with -2F to -3.5F departure for the trimonths. That's pretty cold especially given our background climo of late. Snow I'm shooting for 150% of average, if not more!

My top analogs are 1963-1964, 1976-1977, 1977-1978, 2009-2010.





1963-1964, 1976-1977, 2009-2010 are the top ENSO analogs. Both first year Nino following double cool ENSO. 1977-1978 and 2009-2010 are the top two teleconnection analogs feature -EPO/-AO/NAO and all featured stronger than normal subtropical jets in the southern US which you can see below depicted in yellow and red.




Once a decade maybe two decades you get a chance to see the golden years for the low to mid range modoki El Nino with low solar activity. These are the years that wild things happen winter wise. I believe this is the year for the 2010s. SSTs looks about as good as one can get pre-winter.




Now if I had to pick a year in which we may follow along I would say 1963-1964. 1976-1977, 1977-1978 were weaker Ninos and SSTs were a tad different. 2009-2010 saw severe -NAO in which has never been seen before and the Nino was stronger. 1963-1964 is in the middle and works the best. By winter's end this will either look like a Genius or a complete Nut.

[Cpv17]

Alright gang, It is time to go all in. I'll probably eat crow for this. But hey, it's easy to say maybe warm, maybe cold, some snow but always be careful it may not. That's too easy a cop out!

At some point you want to make predictions based on something anomalous and actually go with an outcome. The precursors for this winter is about as good as it gets before it happens. If you're ever going to predict a cold, snowy winter and this isn't the year, you're never going to do it with the chips shown. Because it doesn't get any better.

I'm going for DJF in the Texas Triangle - Dallas-San Antonio/Austin-Houston with -2F to -3.5F departure for the trimonths. That's pretty cold especially given our background climo of late. Snow I'm shooting for 150% of average, if not more!

My top analogs are 1963-1964, 1976-1977, 1977-1978, 2009-2010.

https://images2.imgbox.com/f0/36/8WtfZV4b_o.png

https://images2.imgbox.com/97/b0/r7W69Scv_o.png

1963-1964, 1976-1977, 2009-2010 are the top ENSO analogs. Both first year Nino following double cool ENSO. 1977-1978 and 2009-2010 are the top two teleconnection analogs feature -EPO/-AO/NAO and all featured stronger than normal subtropical jets in the southern US which you can see below depicted in yellow and red.

https://images2.imgbox.com/30/1a/OQCw9rVJ_o.jpg


Once a decade maybe two decades you get a chance to see the golden years for the low to mid range modoki El Nino with low solar activity. These are the years that wild things happen winter wise. I believe this is the year for the 2010s. SSTs looks about as good as one can get pre-winter.

https://images2.imgbox.com/a8/77/HpUVrjB6_o.jpg


Now if I had to pick a year in which we may follow along I would say 1963-1964. 1976-1977, 1977-1978 were weaker Ninos and SSTs were a tad different. 2009-2010 saw severe -NAO in which has never been seen before and the Nino was stronger. 1963-1964 is in the middle and works the best. By winter's end this will either look like a Genius or a complete Nut.

You have some big you know what for making that prediction lol

[Brent]

Alright gang, It is time to go all in. I'll probably eat crow for this. But hey, it's easy to say maybe warm, maybe cold, some snow but always be careful it may not. That's too easy a cop out!

At some point you want to make predictions based on something anomalous and actually go with an outcome. The precursors for this winter is about as good as it gets before it happens. If you're ever going to predict a cold, snowy winter and this isn't the year, you're never going to do it with the chips shown. Because it doesn't get any better.

I'm going for DJF in the Texas Triangle - Dallas-San Antonio/Austin-Houston with -2F to -3.5F departure for the trimonths. That's pretty cold especially given our background climo of late. Snow I'm shooting for 150% of average, if not more!

My top analogs are 1963-1964, 1976-1977, 1977-1978, 2009-2010.

https://images2.imgbox.com/f0/36/8WtfZV4b_o.png

https://images2.imgbox.com/97/b0/r7W69Scv_o.png

1963-1964, 1976-1977, 2009-2010 are the top ENSO analogs. Both first year Nino following double cool ENSO. 1977-1978 and 2009-2010 are the top two teleconnection analogs feature -EPO/-AO/NAO and all featured stronger than normal subtropical jets in the southern US which you can see below depicted in yellow and red.

https://images2.imgbox.com/30/1a/OQCw9rVJ_o.jpg


Once a decade maybe two decades you get a chance to see the golden years for the low to mid range modoki El Nino with low solar activity. These are the years that wild things happen winter wise. I believe this is the year for the 2010s. SSTs looks about as good as one can get pre-winter.

https://images2.imgbox.com/a8/77/HpUVrjB6_o.jpg


Now if I had to pick a year in which we may follow along I would say 1963-1964. 1976-1977, 1977-1978 were weaker Ninos and SSTs were a tad different. 2009-2010 saw severe -NAO in which has never been seen before and the Nino was stronger. 1963-1964 is in the middle and works the best. By winter's end this will either look like a Genius or a complete Nut.

You have some big you know what for making that prediction lol

Yup although all of those analogs this place would go crazy

All had more than 10 inches of snow in Dallas

[Portastorm]

Best of luck, Ntxw, on your forecast. I think it takes some real stones for anyone to work up a seasonal forecast and share it publicly. Of course we all ... well, almost all of us ... hope your forecast does well!

It’s exciting to read it and clearly you’ve done some research to support your predictions. Nicely done!!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Alright gang, It is time to go all in. I'll probably eat crow for this. But hey, it's easy to say maybe warm, maybe cold, some snow but always be careful it may not. That's too easy a cop out!

At some point you want to make predictions based on something anomalous and actually go with an outcome. The precursors for this winter is about as good as it gets before it happens. If you're ever going to predict a cold, snowy winter and this isn't the year, you're never going to do it with the chips shown. Because it doesn't get any better.

I'm going for DJF in the Texas Triangle - Dallas-San Antonio/Austin-Houston with -2F to -3.5F departure for the trimonths. That's pretty cold especially given our background climo of late. Snow I'm shooting for 150% of average, if not more!

My top analogs are 1963-1964, 1976-1977, 1977-1978, 2009-2010.

https://images2.imgbox.com/f%200/36/8WtfZV4b_o.png

https://images2.imgbox.com/%2097/b0/r7W69Scv_o.png

1963-1964, 1976-1977, 2009-2010 are the top ENSO analogs. Both first year Nino following double cool ENSO. 1977-1978 and 2009-2010 are the top two teleconnection analogs feature -EPO/-AO/NAO and all featured stronger than normal subtropical jets in the southern US which you can see below depicted in yellow and red.

https://images2.imgbox.com/30%20/1a/OQCw9rVJ_o.jpg


Once a decade maybe two decades you get a chance to see the golden years for the low to mid range modoki El Nino with low solar activity. These are the years that wild things happen winter wise. I believe this is the year for the 2010s. SSTs looks about as good as one can get pre-winter.

https://images2.imgbox.com/a8/77/HpUVrjB6_%20o.jpg


Now if I had to pick a year in which we may follow along I would say 1963-1964. 1976-1977, 1977-1978 were weaker Ninos and SSTs were a tad different. 2009-2010 saw severe -NAO in which has never been seen before and the Nino was stronger. 1963-1964 is in the middle and works the best. By winter's end this will either look like a Genius or a complete Nut.

I have no issues with the facts behind your forecast. I agree. Like i said months ago in this thread, If there was a checklist fo all things we would want for a cold and snowy winter, this winter would have everything checked. It doesnt get much better.

Did a quick run through of charts from '62-'63. It appeared December was a warm month for Texas. The East coast had some massive cold blasts but nothing in the west. January was absolutely brutal for the Southern Plains. Cross polar flow and Arctic blast after arctic blast.

Im not very good at predicting what to expect month to month. Just a little bit of info on what that winter was like.

Off to a "Friendsgiving" in a bit, will do more research later.

Edit: Disregard, looked at the wrong year!!!!!!

[Brent]

63-64 had a really cold December(how rare is that lately? The only one recent in the top 10 is 2000) and the snowiest January ever(when even was the last snowy January in DFW? Not since 1977 has one been in the top 10 here) pretty much matching the snow king of late February 2010

also hit 4 degrees on January 14 1964 one of the all-time coldest temperatures(last time DFW hit single digits was in 1996), there was also a foot snowstorm right after that which was the biggest snowstorm on record til February 2010

January 15-16, 1964
Accumulations above 4 inches were reported from stations east of a Muenster-Eastland-Goldthwaite line and west of a Burnett-Temple-Mexia-Canton-Clarksville line. Between 8-12 inches were reported in a broad band from Hamilton to Granbury to McKinney. This was one the Dallas/Fort Worth area's biggest snowfalls.

This place would go crazy if this even close to repeated

[hamburgerman7070]

Ntxw, i liked your analysis of this upcoming winter. I will be shocked if it comes anywhere close to 77-78 winter. People don't realize that winter, along with other winters around that timeframe were legendary for a reason. If you blend the 70s winters and 09-10, like you mentioned, it should get crazy around here. I do have a question. Which phases of mjo are cold and stormy this time of year, and especially in winter? I guess i forgot.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, i liked your analysis of this upcoming winter. I will be shocked if it comes anywhere close to 77-78 winter. People don't realize that winter, along with other winters around that timeframe were legendary for a reason. If you blend the 70s winters and 09-10, like you mentioned, it should get crazy around here. I do have a question. Which phases of mjo are cold and stormy this time of year, and especially in winter? I guess i forgot.

7-8-1-2 generally are the favorable phases.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/ ... 2398296064

Edit: The years that compare to this winter he said are 1963-64, 1977-78
Youre in good company Ntx.

This is a terrific follow btw. He's extremely in depth with but his content is incredible.

[Ntxw]

https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1065304182398296064

Edit: The years that compare to this winter he said are 1963-64, 1977-78
Youre in good company Ntx.

This is a terrific follow btw. He's extremely in depth with but his content is incredible.

He is a very smart fellow.

This winter is actually one of the easier ones to predict. A weak-mod Nino along with early blocking is one of the sure fire ways to call a good winter. They don't come often, but they are notoriously at giving early signs. It's a cliche that we usually won't know what's going to happen and there are players that we can't predict ahead of time. Well it's not so hard this year compared to most years, in my opinion. If it quacks like a duck, it's a duck.

[hamburgerman7070]

Ntxw, do you still believe that a big pattern change should develop by mid December or do you feel it will be later?