Ralph's Weather wrote:All globals and ensembles currently show low heights over the SW the last weekend of the year. Def something to watch.
Yep, with a big chunk of Arctic Air barrelling down the plains!!!
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Ralph's Weather wrote:All globals and ensembles currently show low heights over the SW the last weekend of the year. Def something to watch.
orangeblood wrote:Ralph's Weather wrote:All globals and ensembles currently show low heights over the SW the last weekend of the year. Def something to watch.
Yep, with a big chunk of Arctic Air barrelling down the plains!!!
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018121812/ecmwf_T850a_us_11.png
Cpv17 wrote:orangeblood wrote:Ralph's Weather wrote:All globals and ensembles currently show low heights over the SW the last weekend of the year. Def something to watch.
Yep, with a big chunk of Arctic Air barrelling down the plains!!!
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018121812/ecmwf_T850a_us_11.png
The hp driving that is 1042 mb..not really that strong, but it would suffice. Especially for you guys up there in N TX.
Cpv17 wrote:orangeblood wrote:Ralph's Weather wrote:All globals and ensembles currently show low heights over the SW the last weekend of the year. Def something to watch.
Yep, with a big chunk of Arctic Air barrelling down the plains!!!
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018121812/ecmwf_T850a_us_11.png
The hp driving that is 1042 mb..not really that strong, but it would suffice. Especially for you guys up there in N TX.
wxman22 wrote:Cpv17 wrote:orangeblood wrote:
Yep, with a big chunk of Arctic Air barrelling down the plains!!!
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018121812/ecmwf_T850a_us_11.png
The hp driving that is 1042 mb..not really that strong, but it would suffice. Especially for you guys up there in N TX.
You don't need a very strong arctic outbreak to get cold enough for frozen precipitation,I've seen winter events even here in southeast Texas with a mid 1030mb high.Anything too strong and we won't have enough moisture to work with due to suppression. A 1040mb territory high is the sweet spot imo.
Cpv17 wrote:wxman22 wrote:Cpv17 wrote:
The hp driving that is 1042 mb..not really that strong, but it would suffice. Especially for you guys up there in N TX.
You don't need a very strong arctic outbreak to get cold enough for frozen precipitation,I've seen winter events even here in southeast Texas with a mid 1030mb high.Anything too strong and we won't have enough moisture to work with due to suppression. A 1040mb territory high is the sweet spot imo.
I would have my doubts about a low 1040 mb high being strong enough for frozen precipitation as far south as southeast TX, but I’m sure you know a whole lot more about the weather than I do lol
wxman22 wrote:Cpv17 wrote:orangeblood wrote:
Yep, with a big chunk of Arctic Air barrelling down the plains!!!
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018121812/ecmwf_T850a_us_11.png
The hp driving that is 1042 mb..not really that strong, but it would suffice. Especially for you guys up there in N TX.
You don't need a very strong arctic outbreak to get cold enough for frozen precipitation,I've seen winter events even here in southeast Texas with a mid 1030mb high.Anything too strong and we won't have enough moisture to work with due to suppression. A 1040mb territory high is the sweet spot imo.
Lagreeneyes03 wrote:Cpv17 wrote:wxman22 wrote:
You don't need a very strong arctic outbreak to get cold enough for frozen precipitation,I've seen winter events even here in southeast Texas with a mid 1030mb high.Anything too strong and we won't have enough moisture to work with due to suppression. A 1040mb territory high is the sweet spot imo.
I would have my doubts about a low 1040 mb high being strong enough for frozen precipitation as far south as southeast TX, but I’m sure you know a whole lot more about the weather than I do lol
Should be good enough for NTX(DFW) though...and we're the ones in the snow drought.
Ralph's Weather wrote:The ideal situation would be a 1040mb high over KS with a closed low ejecting out just south of El Paso. I aim for 29-34 degrees while it snows all afternoon and clear overnight with temps dropping into the teens to set the snow good for it to last a couple days or even until a trailing system comes along a couple days later if I am being greedy. Think late Feb into early Mar 2015 with a bit colder upper atmosphere to make it all snow.
CaptinCrunch wrote:Ralph's Weather wrote:The ideal situation would be a 1040mb high over KS with a closed low ejecting out just south of El Paso. I aim for 29-34 degrees while it snows all afternoon and clear overnight with temps dropping into the teens to set the snow good for it to last a couple days or even until a trailing system comes along a couple days later if I am being greedy. Think late Feb into early Mar 2015 with a bit colder upper atmosphere to make it all snow.
That's what was missing in 2010, the drop into the 20's. Sucked to see a foot of snow vanish in 3 days, except where it stayed shaded, that stuck around for a week.
Quixotic wrote:09-10, 02-03 and 77-78 didn’t have big arctic outbreaks. It was cold but just steady split flow with polar air. I have fond memories of 09-10 but 77-78 seemed like there was a chance of snow every day for all of January and February.
orangeblood wrote:Quixotic wrote:09-10, 02-03 and 77-78 didn’t have big arctic outbreaks. It was cold but just steady split flow with polar air. I have fond memories of 09-10 but 77-78 seemed like there was a chance of snow every day for all of January and February.
Just curious, what do you consider an Arctic Outbreak? Jan and Feb 1978 had numerous days of 20-30F below normal, about as extreme as you get around here...
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