Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Brent]

Hoping next year’s pattern whatever it shall be is more cemented that way I know what i’m getting into

I'm not even gonna believe next year will be any different tired of disappointments

[Portastorm]

Hoping next year’s pattern whatever it shall be is more cemented that way I know what i’m getting into

I'm not even gonna believe next year will be any different tired of disappointments

There you go ... you’ve learned the secret of contentment. Expect nothing and you won’t be disappointed, only pleasantly surprised if/when it does happen.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I’d rather have a cool neutral ENSO with a -SOI

[bubba hotep]

Both the 12z GEFS and Euro EPS agree that we are kind of stuck in this pattern over the next two weeks with the best cold off to our NW and the best rainfall totals off to our NE...

GEFS for the next 5 days



Then days D12-16



Not a lot of change when you factor in the smoothing of the ensemble mean at range.

[spencer817]

I am moving down to Waco in August. I'd be more confident with my chances down there at this point.

[Quixotic]

I am moving down to Waco in August. I'd be more confident with my chances down there at this point.

You’d be wrong, climatologicaly speaking. However I share your despondency.

[bubba hotep]

I am moving down to Waco in August. I'd be more confident with my chances down there at this point.

You’d be wrong, climatologicaly speaking. However I share your despondency.

I still think we will see an opportunity around the 20th +/-

[Quixotic]

I am moving down to Waco in August. I'd be more confident with my chances down there at this point.

You’d be wrong, climatologicaly speaking. However I share your despondency.

I still think we will see an opportunity around the 20th +/-

I pray you are right. You talked me off the ledge in 2015.

[bubba hotep]

You’d be wrong, climatologicaly speaking. However I share your despondency.

I still think we will see an opportunity around the 20th +/-

I pray you are right. You talked me off the ledge in 2015.

IIRC, 2015 was a slam dunk, it was one of those patterns that seemed to show up like a train in the distance and it stayed right on track through the event. The 20th is just our next best hope, whatever that means in this pattern...

[Brent]

I am moving down to Waco in August. I'd be more confident with my chances down there at this point.

Well the way things are going it snows more to the south now anyway

[Portastorm]

I am moving down to Waco in August. I'd be more confident with my chances down there at this point.

Well the way things are going it snows more to the south now anyway

Oh just stop already! Hey at least you have water. We can’t even drink or shower right now here in Austin because the suck-ass water utility screwed up again and we have rotting zebra mussels in our water. It smells horrible. Four months ago they mismanaged a flood and we didn’t have water for two weeks.

You may not have snow but at least you have nice water when you turn on your faucet.

And let me point out that Austin hasn’t seen more than an inch of snow in 15 years. So it could always be worse.

[Haris]

I am moving down to Waco in August. I'd be more confident with my chances down there at this point.

Well the way things are going it snows more to the south now anyway

Oh just stop already! Hey at least you have water. We can’t even drink or shower right now here in Austin because the suck-ass water utility screwed up again and we have rotting zebra mussels in our water. It smells horrible. Four months ago they mismanaged a flood and we didn’t have water for two weeks.

You may not have snow but at least you have nice water when you turn on your faucet.

And let me point out that Austin hasn’t seen more than an inch of snow in 15 years. So it could always be worse.

Preach. Yep.

[hamburgerman7070]

Bubba, its kinda shocking the pattern still isnt budging despite the mjo movement soon. Im not sure what the main issue causing everything is.

[Brent]

I am moving down to Waco in August. I'd be more confident with my chances down there at this point.

Well the way things are going it snows more to the south now anyway

Oh just stop already! Hey at least you have water. We can’t even drink or shower right now here in Austin because the suck-ass water utility screwed up again and we have rotting zebra mussels in our water. It smells horrible. Four months ago they mismanaged a flood and we didn’t have water for two weeks.

You may not have snow but at least you have nice water when you turn on your faucet.

And let me point out that Austin hasn’t seen more than an inch of snow in 15 years. So it could always be worse.

sorry to hear that and you're right it could always be worse

[Yukon Cornelius]

Pretty heavy flurries currently up here by the river.

[Texas Snowman]

Ok, I’ve tried to stay relatively quiet on this topic and let Portastorm and Ntxw give their thoughts. But now I think I’ll add a few things.

It may or may not snow here in Texas the rest of this winter - South Texas, North Texas, and everywhere in between. If it doesn’t, that’s disappointing because many of us were expecting (hoping) for something different.

But let me remind us all that we live in Texas, not North Dakota. We’re the southern most state in the Plains, not the northern most. Heck, we’re not even close to the middle. I’ve seen some mention Atlanta because we share a similar latitude. But we also share a similar latitude (in North Texas) with Phoenix and Southern California.

That means that if your happiness depends on snowfall here, you’re going to be disappointed far more times than you will be happy. And that’s true even where I live, just a few miles from the Red River.

I’ve lived here since 1979 and I’m now 53. There have been memorable winter events, sure. But there’s also been plenty of missed opportunities and snowless stretches too.

One day, it will snow again. One day it will snow big again. And one winter, it will snow a lot all season long. But until then, remember that all of this is kind of like droughts and floods here in Texas: in 2011 I thought it would never rain again but in 2015, I thought it would never stop.

So until your region of the Lone Star State gets the winter weather and cold you’re dreaming of, enjoy the weather. Because like Joe Bastardi says, it’s the only weather you’ve got!

[Cpv17]

The cold is trying to break through the STJ so hard on the Euro by days 7-10. It’s like it just runs into a brick wall of warm air and slowly chips away at it day by day getting further and further south.

[missygirl810]

The cold is trying to break through the STJ so hard on the Euro by days 7-10. It’s like it just runs into a brick wall of warm air and slowly chips away at it day by day getting further and further south.

Bet I can guess who's wall that is...

[Ralph's Weather]

The cold is trying to break through the STJ so hard on the Euro by days 7-10. It’s like it just runs into a brick wall of warm air and slowly chips away at it day by day getting further and further south.

Often times that cold can actually slide under the STJ.

[rwfromkansas]

I’m just trying to keep in mind it takes one model run to start a domino. Maybe they aren’t seeing the overall change yet. Who knows. Not giving up hope, though in two weeks I probably will. At least something is happening now, even if a cold rain.