Texas Winter 2018-2019
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1736
- Age: 40
- Joined: Thu Dec 20, 2012 9:23 pm
- Location: Dean, TX/Westcliffe, CO
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
At this point none of the models indicate any major winter weather events for Texas. Yes its' going to be fairly cold. Models have not deviated much from these solutions over the past 24 hours. Things can of course change. And btw I wish it was different.
0 likes
Anything I post is my personal opinion and should not used for any type of planning or lifesaving reasons. Please refer to National Weather Service forecasts.
- bubba hotep
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5416
- Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
- Location: Collin County Texas
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Picture from Tom Bradshaw, the MIC at NWS FWD. Just a reminder, the fine folks over at FWD are still working without getting paid and doing a great job. If you can, be sure to let them know how much the public appreciates the work the are doing.
7 likes
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
hriverajr wrote:At this point none of the models indicate any major winter weather events for Texas. Yes its' going to be fairly cold. Models have not deviated much from these solutions over the past 24 hours. Things can of course change. And btw I wish it was different.
If there is any solace, so far this winter including the storm now, the models in particular the GFS/FV3 have a clear bias of too much positive tilt ejection that eventually corrects 100 hours in. Nearly every storm has tried to come out neutral-neg tilt.
3 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Ntxw wrote:hriverajr wrote:At this point none of the models indicate any major winter weather events for Texas. Yes its' going to be fairly cold. Models have not deviated much from these solutions over the past 24 hours. Things can of course change. And btw I wish it was different.
If there is any solace, so far this winter including the storm now, the models in particular the GFS/FV3 have a clear bias of too much positive tilt ejection that eventually corrects 100 hours in. Nearly every storm has tried to come out neutral-neg tilt.
If anyone has a better chance in this pattern it would be north central Texas I would think.
0 likes
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Ntxw wrote:CaptinCrunch wrote:I dont think anything fell south of north 121, 635 area. Didn't even get drop of rain here in southern Tarrant.
This was a bust precip wise and models and most forecast had 60-70% chance across most of north Texas.
There were many posters who did a good job of giving us ground truth. Far northeast Tarrant county, northern third of Dallas county, and all of Denton, Collin county experienced about 20-30 mins of moderate snowfall with wet flakes that transitioned to a flizzard. South of that area got little to nothing.
All in all was a novelty for those who saw.
The FW NWS forecast was spot on for this event. I went back 3 days and never found precip chances higher than 50-60% for the 35 corridor. Their forecast update at 7:30pm yesterday was spot on for last nights events. Scattered showers with higher chance of storms east. Wrap around flurries for the north burbs and points north 2am-7am.
I am just not seeing a forecast bust. Good job NWS.
4 likes
The views and opinions expressed in this post are solely those of an amateur. For an official forecast I recommend your local branch of the NWS.
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
hriverajr wrote:Ntxw wrote:hriverajr wrote:At this point none of the models indicate any major winter weather events for Texas. Yes its' going to be fairly cold. Models have not deviated much from these solutions over the past 24 hours. Things can of course change. And btw I wish it was different.
If there is any solace, so far this winter including the storm now, the models in particular the GFS/FV3 have a clear bias of too much positive tilt ejection that eventually corrects 100 hours in. Nearly every storm has tried to come out neutral-neg tilt.
If anyone has a better chance in this pattern it would be north central Texas I would think.
North and particularly northeast and East Texas would be sitting well for snow showers in NW flow disturbances if there truly is a cold dome centered over the lakes. It would be hard for an amped up system, but maybe nickel and dime away? Haven't had those in awhile.
2 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- TheProfessor
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 3505
- Age: 27
- Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2013 10:56 am
- Location: Wichita, Kansas
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Warm air advection has won out here today. Even our potential deform band might have mixing issues.
1 likes
An alumnus of The Ohio State University.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
TheProfessor wrote:Warm air advection has won out here today. Even our potential deform band might have mixing issues.
Too bad you couldn’t get it from the frontside and the backside if you know what I mean
1 likes
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
I was pleased to see the light dusting and still snowing here in Frisco this morning. My son whos six doesn’t remember snow. He was barely two in 2015 when we had that dumping in early March. He was so excited to see it snow.
4 likes
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Hey at least I will get good solar production in this pattern. Portastorm, and those of us further south and west.. well not looking good at moment.
1 likes
- TheProfessor
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 3505
- Age: 27
- Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2013 10:56 am
- Location: Wichita, Kansas
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
The Canadian completely nailed this storm up here. Everybody laughed at it...
1 likes
An alumnus of The Ohio State University.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
- bubba hotep
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5416
- Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
- Location: Collin County Texas
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Nothing of interest on the 12z GFS. The 00z Euro EPS does have a cluster of members that get snow into DFW with the system middle of next week.
1 likes
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
TheProfessor wrote:The Canadian completely nailed this storm up here. Everybody laughed at it...
I never really laugh at the CMC. The two events we had last year here in south Louisiana were nailed by the CMC.
3 likes
- Portastorm
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 9787
- Age: 61
- Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
- Location: South Austin, TX
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
hriverajr wrote:Hey at least I will get good solar production in this pattern. Portastorm, and those of us further south and west.. well not looking good at moment.
Indeed, sir. All the moisture will be east of us. Plenty of ol’ Sol. Not too much deep cold.
At this point I’m trying to fuel my hopes under the “The experts are saying the models are struggling beyond a few days with this pattern ... so if they’re not showing winter promise for me, maybe it’s because they’re wrong.” LOL. Pathetic, I realize.
1 likes
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Portastorm wrote:hriverajr wrote:Hey at least I will get good solar production in this pattern. Portastorm, and those of us further south and west.. well not looking good at moment.
Indeed, sir. All the moisture will be east of us. Plenty of ol’ Sol. Not too much deep cold.
At this point I’m trying to fuel my hopes under the “The experts are saying the models are struggling beyond a few days with this pattern ... so if they’re not showing winter promise for me, maybe it’s because they’re wrong.” LOL. Pathetic, I realize.
LOL..... I am back to teaching on Tuesday so I won't have to be disappointed .. .or at least think about such. Woe is us.. as the models don't seem to be struggling too much now. If it still shows the same tomorrow morning.. well hope is lost for the next two weeks.
1 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2968
- Age: 36
- Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2013 11:55 am
- Location: Lindale, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Ntxw wrote:hriverajr wrote:Ntxw wrote:
If there is any solace, so far this winter including the storm now, the models in particular the GFS/FV3 have a clear bias of too much positive tilt ejection that eventually corrects 100 hours in. Nearly every storm has tried to come out neutral-neg tilt.
If anyone has a better chance in this pattern it would be north central Texas I would think.
North and particularly northeast and East Texas would be sitting well for snow showers in NW flow disturbances if there truly is a cold dome centered over the lakes. It would be hard for an amped up system, but maybe nickel and dime away? Haven't had those in awhile.
Agreed, I have always thought this would be a pattern that would drop semi regular snow a half inch to vouple inch snows. Maybe a big storm as the pattern retrogrades towards mid Feb. Right now the West Coast ridge is strong enough to not allow much of anuthing underneath it. Kinks will flow up and over the ridge though so when they find moisture we will be in luck with solid cold in place. Look for storms coming out of the north vs southwest where most of our winter storms come from.
2 likes
Follow on Facebook at Ralph's Weather.
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
I’m still not gonna rule out snow for Wednesday yet. Gotta get into the higher res model’s wheelhouse to really know.
1 likes
Undergraduate Meteorology Student at the University of Oklahoma and Operator at the Oklahoma Mesonet.
All opinions independent of employers and the university.
All opinions independent of employers and the university.
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
I wish there would be a blizzard to come out of the Rockies and pound eastern Wyoming, eastern Colorado, Nebraska, & Kansas with 1-2 feet of snow. That would really help our situation. One reason why the models are so big on the cold in the east is because there’s less modification cuz of the solid snowpack.
3 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 60 guests