Texas Winter 2018-2019

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Yukon Cornelius
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3841 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Sat Jan 19, 2019 10:51 am

Light dusting out this way.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3842 Postby hriverajr » Sat Jan 19, 2019 10:51 am

At this point none of the models indicate any major winter weather events for Texas. Yes its' going to be fairly cold. Models have not deviated much from these solutions over the past 24 hours. Things can of course change. And btw I wish it was different.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3843 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Jan 19, 2019 10:54 am

Picture from Tom Bradshaw, the MIC at NWS FWD. Just a reminder, the fine folks over at FWD are still working without getting paid and doing a great job. If you can, be sure to let them know how much the public appreciates the work the are doing.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3844 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 19, 2019 10:57 am

hriverajr wrote:At this point none of the models indicate any major winter weather events for Texas. Yes its' going to be fairly cold. Models have not deviated much from these solutions over the past 24 hours. Things can of course change. And btw I wish it was different.


If there is any solace, so far this winter including the storm now, the models in particular the GFS/FV3 have a clear bias of too much positive tilt ejection that eventually corrects 100 hours in. Nearly every storm has tried to come out neutral-neg tilt.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3845 Postby hriverajr » Sat Jan 19, 2019 11:02 am

Ntxw wrote:
hriverajr wrote:At this point none of the models indicate any major winter weather events for Texas. Yes its' going to be fairly cold. Models have not deviated much from these solutions over the past 24 hours. Things can of course change. And btw I wish it was different.


If there is any solace, so far this winter including the storm now, the models in particular the GFS/FV3 have a clear bias of too much positive tilt ejection that eventually corrects 100 hours in. Nearly every storm has tried to come out neutral-neg tilt.


If anyone has a better chance in this pattern it would be north central Texas I would think.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3846 Postby WeatherP1 » Sat Jan 19, 2019 11:02 am

Ntxw wrote:
CaptinCrunch wrote:I dont think anything fell south of north 121, 635 area. Didn't even get drop of rain here in southern Tarrant.

This was a bust precip wise and models and most forecast had 60-70% chance across most of north Texas.


There were many posters who did a good job of giving us ground truth. Far northeast Tarrant county, northern third of Dallas county, and all of Denton, Collin county experienced about 20-30 mins of moderate snowfall with wet flakes that transitioned to a flizzard. South of that area got little to nothing.
All in all was a novelty for those who saw.

The FW NWS forecast was spot on for this event. I went back 3 days and never found precip chances higher than 50-60% for the 35 corridor. Their forecast update at 7:30pm yesterday was spot on for last nights events. Scattered showers with higher chance of storms east. Wrap around flurries for the north burbs and points north 2am-7am.
I am just not seeing a forecast bust. Good job NWS.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3847 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 19, 2019 11:08 am

hriverajr wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
hriverajr wrote:At this point none of the models indicate any major winter weather events for Texas. Yes its' going to be fairly cold. Models have not deviated much from these solutions over the past 24 hours. Things can of course change. And btw I wish it was different.


If there is any solace, so far this winter including the storm now, the models in particular the GFS/FV3 have a clear bias of too much positive tilt ejection that eventually corrects 100 hours in. Nearly every storm has tried to come out neutral-neg tilt.


If anyone has a better chance in this pattern it would be north central Texas I would think.


North and particularly northeast and East Texas would be sitting well for snow showers in NW flow disturbances if there truly is a cold dome centered over the lakes. It would be hard for an amped up system, but maybe nickel and dime away? Haven't had those in awhile.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3848 Postby TheProfessor » Sat Jan 19, 2019 11:27 am

Warm air advection has won out here today. Even our potential deform band might have mixing issues. :x
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3849 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Jan 19, 2019 11:33 am

TheProfessor wrote:Warm air advection has won out here today. Even our potential deform band might have mixing issues. :x


Too bad you couldn’t get it from the frontside and the backside if you know what I mean :wink:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3850 Postby Quixotic » Sat Jan 19, 2019 11:42 am

I was pleased to see the light dusting and still snowing here in Frisco this morning. My son whos six doesn’t remember snow. He was barely two in 2015 when we had that dumping in early March. He was so excited to see it snow.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3851 Postby hriverajr » Sat Jan 19, 2019 11:42 am

Hey at least I will get good solar production in this pattern. Portastorm, and those of us further south and west.. well not looking good at moment.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3852 Postby TheProfessor » Sat Jan 19, 2019 11:52 am

The Canadian completely nailed this storm up here. Everybody laughed at it...
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3853 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Jan 19, 2019 11:56 am

Nothing of interest on the 12z GFS. The 00z Euro EPS does have a cluster of members that get snow into DFW with the system middle of next week.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3854 Postby harp » Sat Jan 19, 2019 12:00 pm

TheProfessor wrote:The Canadian completely nailed this storm up here. Everybody laughed at it...

I never really laugh at the CMC. The two events we had last year here in south Louisiana were nailed by the CMC.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3855 Postby Portastorm » Sat Jan 19, 2019 12:03 pm

hriverajr wrote:Hey at least I will get good solar production in this pattern. Portastorm, and those of us further south and west.. well not looking good at moment.


Indeed, sir. All the moisture will be east of us. Plenty of ol’ Sol. Not too much deep cold.

At this point I’m trying to fuel my hopes under the “The experts are saying the models are struggling beyond a few days with this pattern ... so if they’re not showing winter promise for me, maybe it’s because they’re wrong.” LOL. Pathetic, I realize. :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3856 Postby hriverajr » Sat Jan 19, 2019 12:07 pm

Portastorm wrote:
hriverajr wrote:Hey at least I will get good solar production in this pattern. Portastorm, and those of us further south and west.. well not looking good at moment.


Indeed, sir. All the moisture will be east of us. Plenty of ol’ Sol. Not too much deep cold.

At this point I’m trying to fuel my hopes under the “The experts are saying the models are struggling beyond a few days with this pattern ... so if they’re not showing winter promise for me, maybe it’s because they’re wrong.” LOL. Pathetic, I realize. :lol:


LOL..... I am back to teaching on Tuesday so I won't have to be disappointed .. .or at least think about such. Woe is us.. as the models don't seem to be struggling too much now. If it still shows the same tomorrow morning.. well hope is lost for the next two weeks.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3857 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Jan 19, 2019 12:17 pm

Models are already backing off the major cold blast :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3858 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sat Jan 19, 2019 12:20 pm

Ntxw wrote:
hriverajr wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
If there is any solace, so far this winter including the storm now, the models in particular the GFS/FV3 have a clear bias of too much positive tilt ejection that eventually corrects 100 hours in. Nearly every storm has tried to come out neutral-neg tilt.


If anyone has a better chance in this pattern it would be north central Texas I would think.


North and particularly northeast and East Texas would be sitting well for snow showers in NW flow disturbances if there truly is a cold dome centered over the lakes. It would be hard for an amped up system, but maybe nickel and dime away? Haven't had those in awhile.

Agreed, I have always thought this would be a pattern that would drop semi regular snow a half inch to vouple inch snows. Maybe a big storm as the pattern retrogrades towards mid Feb. Right now the West Coast ridge is strong enough to not allow much of anuthing underneath it. Kinks will flow up and over the ridge though so when they find moisture we will be in luck with solid cold in place. Look for storms coming out of the north vs southwest where most of our winter storms come from.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3859 Postby Cerlin » Sat Jan 19, 2019 12:52 pm

I’m still not gonna rule out snow for Wednesday yet. Gotta get into the higher res model’s wheelhouse to really know.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3860 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Jan 19, 2019 12:58 pm

I wish there would be a blizzard to come out of the Rockies and pound eastern Wyoming, eastern Colorado, Nebraska, & Kansas with 1-2 feet of snow. That would really help our situation. One reason why the models are so big on the cold in the east is because there’s less modification cuz of the solid snowpack.
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