Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Haris]

I'm not sure what the NAM is smoking, but there won't likely be any snow on the ground in D-FW tomorrow. May be a chance of some cold rain with a slight chance of a sleet pellet. As I've been saying - this "winter weather event" is looking less significant than last week (a lot less significant, and last week's event wasn't very significant). May be time to pack it up, my oak tree is budding out and my azaleas will be flowering in a week or two. Nature is telling us that winter is over for NE and SE TX.

I always love the NE TX part

[TheProfessor]

Ahh tomorrow night will be another battle of WAA vs cold air in place. History tells me the Nam and Euro are both wrong and I won't see 5 inches of snow even though the're a pretty good tandem together. I wish I lived east of the Apps sometimes where CAD occurs lol.

[losf1981]

just got a winter weather advisory notice on my phone......

[bubba hotep]

Temps are running 4-5F cooler at DFW than what models had for this afternoon. The 19z HRRR had DFW at 47F right now and it is actually 42F.

[DFWLady]

Hey everyone, quick question! I've been watching the models because of all the rain tomorrow (yay for cold rain again) Why does the NAM and FV3/GFS have DFW with snow? I know its nothing to get excited over unless we have a temp bust, but just curious if anyone could explain it to me! Thank you in advance!

[weatherdude1108]

The Post Oaks in the greenspace on the other side of my backyard fence have green buds on them. Don't usually see those out that early. The Cedar Elm in my backyard hasn't put out buds yet. The Cedar Elm is usually one of the last species to leaf out, at least in my yard and adjoining yards/properties. The very last things to leaf out on my property are the Crepe Myrtles. Those are nowhere near showing green yet. Once the CM's green up, Winter is over.

[gpsnowman]

Well I am back from Caddo Lake in east Texas and this may come as a shock, but the 12 inch swath of snow depicted last week...…….did not happen!!!! Not even a rain drop there, just cloudy and cold. What I did see were miles and miles of trees budding flowers and showing green leaves as far as the eye could see travelling down I-20. My allergies were out of control. I have been to Caddo many times over the Presidents Day holiday and have never seen so much early growth. Yellow pollen powder was starting to accumulate on cars and other objects. Way too early!!!! Winter started early with early freezes and early leaf loss. Payback from mother nature.

[Ralph's Weather]

Took a look at the model soundings for midday tomorrow for Tyler and Sleet is def on the table for tomorrow. I have not paid this event any attention but the WRF models show surface temps around 34/35 with a sharper cold nose at 950mb, GFS is fully above freezing with temps near 40 and NAM of course is in between with sleet rain mix with temps around 36/37.

[wxman57]

I'm not sure what the NAM is smoking, but there won't likely be any snow on the ground in D-FW tomorrow. May be a chance of some cold rain with a slight chance of a sleet pellet. As I've been saying - this "winter weather event" is looking less significant than last week (a lot less significant, and last week's event wasn't very significant). May be time to pack it up, my oak tree is budding out and my azaleas will be flowering in a week or two. Nature is telling us that winter is over for NE and SE TX.

I always love the NE TX part

Not sure what you mean about NE TX. By NE TX, I mean the NE quarter of the state, which includes the D-FW metroplex.

[bubba hotep]

Took a look at the model soundings for midday tomorrow for Tyler and Sleet is def on the table for tomorrow. I have not paid this event any attention but the WRF models show surface temps around 34/35 with a sharper cold nose at 950mb, GFS is fully above freezing with temps near 40 and NAM of course is in between with sleet rain mix with temps around 36/37.

The WRFs are all in lol

NMM



ARW



ARW2

[Cerlin]

Took a look at the model soundings for midday tomorrow for Tyler and Sleet is def on the table for tomorrow. I have not paid this event any attention but the WRF models show surface temps around 34/35 with a sharper cold nose at 950mb, GFS is fully above freezing with temps near 40 and NAM of course is in between with sleet rain mix with temps around 36/37.

The WRFs are all in lol

NMM

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-nmm/2019021812/wrf-nmm_asnow_scus_48.png

ARW

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw/2019021812/wrf-arw_asnow_scus_48.png

ARW2

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw2/2019021812/wrf-arw2_asnow_scus_48.png

It’ll be a close event. I don’t know how those snowmaps work because there isn’t any frozen precipitation in the actual precip runs of those WRF models, but just 2 degrees could change that.

[bubba hotep]

Took a look at the model soundings for midday tomorrow for Tyler and Sleet is def on the table for tomorrow. I have not paid this event any attention but the WRF models show surface temps around 34/35 with a sharper cold nose at 950mb, GFS is fully above freezing with temps near 40 and NAM of course is in between with sleet rain mix with temps around 36/37.

The WRFs are all in lol

NMM

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-nmm/2019021812/wrf-nmm_asnow_scus_48.png

ARW

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw/2019021812/wrf-arw_asnow_scus_48.png

ARW2

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw2/2019021812/wrf-arw2_asnow_scus_48.png

It’ll be a close event. I don’t know how those snowmaps work because there isn’t any frozen precipitation in the actual precip runs of those WRF models, but just 2 degrees could change that.

I don't see any surprises but who really knows at this point. Soundings show a large warm layer and then a subfreezing layer just above the surface but I'm not sure if it is thick enough to get us to sleet?

[Yukon Cornelius]

just got a winter weather advisory notice on my phone......

Possibly 0.10” of ice.

[wxman57]

Took a look at the model soundings for midday tomorrow for Tyler and Sleet is def on the table for tomorrow. I have not paid this event any attention but the WRF models show surface temps around 34/35 with a sharper cold nose at 950mb, GFS is fully above freezing with temps near 40 and NAM of course is in between with sleet rain mix with temps around 36/37.

Agree, based on projected soundings, you can't rule out a few sleet pellets from D-FW east to Tyler tomorrow morning. They would quickly melt with above-freezing surface temps.

[Texas Snowman]

I'm not sure what the NAM is smoking, but there won't likely be any snow on the ground in D-FW tomorrow. May be a chance of some cold rain with a slight chance of a sleet pellet. As I've been saying - this "winter weather event" is looking less significant than last week (a lot less significant, and last week's event wasn't very significant). May be time to pack it up, my oak tree is budding out and my azaleas will be flowering in a week or two. Nature is telling us that winter is over for NE and SE TX.

I always love the NE TX part

Not sure what you mean about NE TX. By NE TX, I mean the NE quarter of the state, which includes the D-FW metroplex.

I’m violating the unwritten rule around here of not poking the Heat Miser. But my guess is that Haris might be poking fun at your continued insistence of putting DFW in NE Texas.

You may think that is true. But as we discussed a year or two ago, you’ll find few if any up here that agree with you.

Not the TV mets, the TV news anchors, the newspapers, etc. that describe DFW as North Central Texas.

Or the five campuses of North Central Texas Community College (including two in the heart of the DFW Metroplex). And neither do the 16 counties that comprise the North Central Texas Council of Governments (all of those counties in and around Dallas/Fort Worth).

And for that matter, neither does the Fort Worth office of the NWS. Here’s their description of SKYWARN classes they teach: “Every year, NWS Fort Worth conducts over 40 SKYWARN classes within our coverage area of 46 counties in North and Central Texas.”

But feel free to disagree.

[Ralph's Weather]

I'm not sure what the NAM is smoking, but there won't likely be any snow on the ground in D-FW tomorrow. May be a chance of some cold rain with a slight chance of a sleet pellet. As I've been saying - this "winter weather event" is looking less significant than last week (a lot less significant, and last week's event wasn't very significant). May be time to pack it up, my oak tree is budding out and my azaleas will be flowering in a week or two. Nature is telling us that winter is over for NE and SE TX.

I always love the NE TX part

Not sure what you mean about NE TX. By NE TX, I mean the NE quarter of the state, which includes the D-FW metroplex.

Haha. We all know your definition as wrong as it is in a regional geography sense.

[wxman57]

I always love the NE TX part

Not sure what you mean about NE TX. By NE TX, I mean the NE quarter of the state, which includes the D-FW metroplex.

Haha. We all know you're definition as wrong as it is in a regional geography sense.

I divide Texas into 4 quadrants, which puts DFW in NE TX. I just can't call it "north Texas", as that's the Panhandle. But if Houston to Beaumont and, say, up through Lufkin is SE TX, then what's north of SE TX? Right! NE TX, which includes D-FW.

[Texas Snowman]

Not sure what you mean about NE TX. By NE TX, I mean the NE quarter of the state, which includes the D-FW metroplex.

Haha. We all know you're definition as wrong as it is in a regional geography sense.

I divide Texas into 4 quadrants, which puts DFW in NE TX. I just can't call it "north Texas", as that's the Panhandle. But if Houston to Beaumont and, say, up through Lufkin is SE TX, then what's north of SE TX? Right! NE TX, which includes D-FW.

You may not be able to call it North Texas. But millions of others can.

[weatherdude1108]

Haha. We all know you're definition as wrong as it is in a regional geography sense.

I divide Texas into 4 quadrants, which puts DFW in NE TX. I just can't call it "north Texas", as that's the Panhandle. But if Houston to Beaumont and, say, up through Lufkin is SE TX, then what's north of SE TX? Right! NE TX, which includes D-FW.

You may not be able to call it North Texas. But millions of others can.

He's just simplifying the state into four regions. Cut the man some slack!

[Brent]

I'm not sure what these models are smoking lol