Texas Winter 2018-2019

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weatherdude1108
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6001 Postby weatherdude1108 » Tue Feb 19, 2019 3:55 pm

Cpv17 wrote:I don’t recall seeing this from the CPC the whole winter.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif


I just saw that. Looks like it's still alluding to the same time period (late Feb/early March) people have mentioned on here. Does look rather chilly!

Less than two weeks out, this time! :cheesy: :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6002 Postby wxman57 » Tue Feb 19, 2019 3:58 pm

Oh, sure, the models are right this time...

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6003 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Feb 19, 2019 4:08 pm

Some of you guys should be able to help me out on this. I can’t quite remember the date, but I believe during the first week of March of 2002, we had teens all the way down here in southeast TX.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6004 Postby Tireman4 » Tue Feb 19, 2019 4:14 pm

wxman57 wrote:Oh, sure, the models are right this time...

http://wxman57.com/images/Lucy.jpg



Oh you must taunt sir. Must you? :) Does not the blind squirrel find an acorn sometimes?
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6005 Postby wxman57 » Tue Feb 19, 2019 4:42 pm

Tireman4 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Oh, sure, the models are right this time...

http://wxman57.com/images/Lucy.jpg



Oh you must taunt sir. Must you? :) Does not the blind squirrel find an acorn sometimes?


Not taunting, just urging caution when believing the forecast of early March cold. However, I'm waiting to plant my newly-purchased satsuma tree until I'm sure we won't get a frost in early March.

12Z FV3-GFS is in. Not even a freeze south of the Red River (in NE TX) the last week of February or first week of March.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6006 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Feb 19, 2019 5:19 pm

Cpv17 wrote:I don’t recall seeing this from the CPC the whole winter.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif


Fake News!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6007 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Feb 19, 2019 5:45 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Tireman4 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Oh, sure, the models are right this time...

http://wxman57.com/images/Lucy.jpg



Oh you must taunt sir. Must you? :) Does not the blind squirrel find an acorn sometimes?


Not taunting, just urging caution when believing the forecast of early March cold. However, I'm waiting to plant my newly-purchased satsuma tree until I'm sure we won't get a frost in early March.

12Z FV3-GFS is in. Not even a freeze south of the Red River (in NE TX) the last week of February or first week of March.


None of the forecasts that I’ve seen have any 30’s for our area. Channel 13 latest 10 day forecast has 46 as the lowest temperature over the next 10 days. So it seems like a lot of the pro mets aren’t buying any type of big cool down yet.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6008 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Feb 19, 2019 8:46 pm

Best CPC 8-14 day analogs in a while

Image
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6009 Postby Brent » Tue Feb 19, 2019 11:38 pm

bubba hotep wrote:Best CPC 8-14 day analogs in a while

https://i.ibb.co/HNgrf3x/814.png


Unless its bringing snow I'm not interested lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6010 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Feb 20, 2019 12:27 am

Brent wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:Best CPC 8-14 day analogs in a while

https://i.ibb.co/HNgrf3x/814.png


Unless its bringing snow I'm not interested lol


I’m only interested and rooting for the cooler temps cuz it keeps the electric bill down lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6011 Postby Brent » Wed Feb 20, 2019 12:49 am

Cpv17 wrote:
Brent wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:Best CPC 8-14 day analogs in a while

https://i.ibb.co/HNgrf3x/814.png


Unless its bringing snow I'm not interested lol


I’m only interested and rooting for the cooler temps cuz it keeps the electric bill down lol


Funny you mention that the heat is more expensive than the AC in this house lol

I was amazed too given how long and hot our summers are in comparison
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6012 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Feb 20, 2019 2:03 am

Brent wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Brent wrote:
Unless its bringing snow I'm not interested lol


I’m only interested and rooting for the cooler temps cuz it keeps the electric bill down lol


Funny you mention that the heat is more expensive than the AC in this house lol

I was amazed too given how long and hot our summers are in comparison


Haha dang man, that’s interesting
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6013 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Wed Feb 20, 2019 7:22 am

Brent wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Brent wrote:
Unless its bringing snow I'm not interested lol


I’m only interested and rooting for the cooler temps cuz it keeps the electric bill down lol


Funny you mention that the heat is more expensive than the AC in this house lol

I was amazed too given how long and hot our summers are in comparison

Same here. My heat is twice as expensive as A/C
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6014 Postby Ntxw » Wed Feb 20, 2019 8:01 am

Yukon Cornelius wrote:
Brent wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
I’m only interested and rooting for the cooler temps cuz it keeps the electric bill down lol


Funny you mention that the heat is more expensive than the AC in this house lol

I was amazed too given how long and hot our summers are in comparison

Same here. My heat is twice as expensive as A/C


Do you central heat with electricity? Gas in Texas is relatively cheap given our short winters. For most of us the aggregate of 6+ months of AC generally is a higher cost than 3 or so for heating.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6015 Postby wxman57 » Wed Feb 20, 2019 8:21 am

Ah, now the conversation has come around to talking about AC use - my time of the year! Looks like that 1-2" of snow in the D-FW area as predicted by the NAM didn't materialize. Cheer up, though, the next ice event for Texas is coming March 4th (FV3-GFS):

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2019022006/fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_49.png
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6016 Postby Ntxw » Wed Feb 20, 2019 8:22 am

bubba hotep wrote:Best CPC 8-14 day analogs in a while

https://i.ibb.co/HNgrf3x/814.png


Relative to averages (they rise in late Feb and early March) the -EPO block probably yields the chilliest so far compared to what should be normal...

That says nothing about snow though. Doesn't look warm anywhere for most of the US so no faux Spring.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6017 Postby Cerlin » Wed Feb 20, 2019 8:24 am

I know that the March 4th ice storm is somewhat of a joke but I have been seeing a pattern with the first few days of March being the target area for some potential winter weather. The GFS and FV3 have repeatedly been showing some winter weather bouts for parts of TX. Of course, it won’t verify like always, but at least it’s not hopeless.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6018 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Wed Feb 20, 2019 8:36 am

Ntxw wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:
Brent wrote:
Funny you mention that the heat is more expensive than the AC in this house lol

I was amazed too given how long and hot our summers are in comparison

Same here. My heat is twice as expensive as A/C


Do you central heat with electricity? Gas in Texas is relatively cheap given our short winters. For most of us the aggregate of 6+ months of AC generally is a higher cost than 3 or so for heating.

I can’t get gas out where I live, it’s too far out away from everything else. I’m total electric except for my stove which is propane. My buddy uses propane for heat but pays more in heating costs than I do with electric.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6019 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Wed Feb 20, 2019 8:38 am

Made it down to 29 this morning with a heavy frost and what appeared to be a little freezing fog.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#6020 Postby wxman57 » Wed Feb 20, 2019 9:23 am

Cerlin wrote:I know that the March 4th ice storm is somewhat of a joke but I have been seeing a pattern with the first few days of March being the target area for some potential winter weather. The GFS and FV3 have repeatedly been showing some winter weather bouts for parts of TX. Of course, it won’t verify like always, but at least it’s not hopeless.


The models are picking up on "something" happening in early March. That "something" may turn out to be just another moderately cold front like this week's or last week's, or it could turn out to be a little colder with the potential for some winter precipitation. The place to keep an eye on over the coming weeks is western Canada (British Columbia and Alberta). Currently, temps are well above zero there. Last week, the temps there hit -45F. Can that area "recharge" with cold air between now and early March? GFS suggests at least SOME cross-polar flow in late February, bring colder Arctic air into NW Canada. However, the current GFS run indicates a pattern similar to past events - some cold air coming down but not enough for much winter precip.

There's certainly a chance for some significant winter precip in the D-FW area around early March. However, I'm not running to "kick that football" just yet. I don't like the look on Lucy's face.
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