Texas Winter 2018-2019

[weatherdude1108]

My former college professor in Lubbock got pics from his yard today.

[Brent]

the FV GFS is close to a wintry threat for DFW on Thursday, certainly something to watch

One thing I am noticing, the models are trending colder for sure, still too warm, but a lot cooler than yesterday

remember a few days ago the Euro had one run showing a foot of snow in E OK in the same timeframe

also thought it was interesting FWD seemed intrigued:

At this point, it is far too early to speculate about the
prospects for winter weather, but people are advised to monitor
the latest forecast information as we head into next week.

[TexasSam]

I know it's 45 deg. here, but I swear I see a few tiny flakes of snow.

[bubba hotep]

00z Euro and FV3 are much more interesting for N. Texas than this last system, IMO. The last system delivered for parts of W. Texas and it would've probably been a blockbuster system for all of Texas in late January or February but there just wasn't enough cold air, which is typical for early Dec. There still isn't much cold air this go round but this next system looks much more dynamic and we could see some heavy wet snow in the backside favored areas.

By next Tuesday afternoon there are three pieces of energy to watch, with each playing a role in the final solution.



With this system, we see a more favorable setup across the GL & NE but still could use some help from the Pacific by the Western ridge building into WCAN.



This is what we get when we look at Dec snow in N. Texas when MEI is positive.



At least we have another system to watch

[wxman57]

I know it's 45 deg. here, but I swear I see a few tiny flakes of snow.

That would be difficult as the entire cloud deck was in above-freezing air. We saw very light drizzle across Houston around that time. The drops would swirl around like snowflakes.

[Lagreeneyes03]

00z Euro and FV3 are much more interesting for N. Texas than this last system, IMO. The last system delivered for parts of W. Texas and it would've probably been a blockbuster system for all of Texas in late January or February but there just wasn't enough cold air, which is typical for early Dec. There still isn't much cold air this go round but this next system looks much more dynamic and we could see some heavy wet snow in the backside favored areas.

By next Tuesday afternoon there are three pieces of energy to watch, with each playing a role in the final solution.



At least we have another system to watch

Is anyone picking up on it? It seems the week will just get warmer and warmer, ending up mid 60's next weekend.

[Brent]

00z Euro and FV3 are much more interesting for N. Texas than this last system, IMO. The last system delivered for parts of W. Texas and it would've probably been a blockbuster system for all of Texas in late January or February but there just wasn't enough cold air, which is typical for early Dec. There still isn't much cold air this go round but this next system looks much more dynamic and we could see some heavy wet snow in the backside favored areas.

By next Tuesday afternoon there are three pieces of energy to watch, with each playing a role in the final solution.



At least we have another system to watch

Is anyone picking up on it? It seems the week will just get warmer and warmer, ending up mid 60's next weekend.

FWD thinks theres a chance if its slower moving. It won't be that cold but cold cores have their own cold air like Lubbock yesterday

[bubba hotep]

00z Euro and FV3 are much more interesting for N. Texas than this last system, IMO. The last system delivered for parts of W. Texas and it would've probably been a blockbuster system for all of Texas in late January or February but there just wasn't enough cold air, which is typical for early Dec. There still isn't much cold air this go round but this next system looks much more dynamic and we could see some heavy wet snow in the backside favored areas.

By next Tuesday afternoon there are three pieces of energy to watch, with each playing a role in the final solution.



At least we have another system to watch

Is anyone picking up on it? It seems the week will just get warmer and warmer, ending up mid 60's next weekend.

FWD thinks theres a chance if its slower moving. It won't be that cold but cold cores have their own cold air like Lubbock yesterday

12z Euro came in a bit more progressive and we need things to slow down for us to have any chance with this system. And to clarify, we are starting off with really really low chances as it is lol

The 12z FV3 still gives us a fighting chance






vs Euro

[Ntxw]

This is probably going to be one of the deeper storms we have seen since quite some time, for the time of year. It will probably find cold air above, can we get some surface cold please?

[bubba hotep]

Euro also has another one at D10. I really like seeing these cutoffs in the models b/c the N. Pacific pattern will start to transition in about a week or so to one that favors colder air in WCAN. Keep the cutoffs rolling and we are bound to score eventually.

[bubba hotep]

We need to pick it up a bit, if we want to hit 100 pages in December! 300 Page Winter or Bust

[Ntxw]

Euro also has another one at D10. I really like seeing these cutoffs in the models b/c the N. Pacific pattern will start to transition in about a week or so to one that favors colder air in WCAN. Keep the cutoffs rolling and we are bound to score eventually.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018120912/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_11.png

The Greenland high latitude blocking has really helped to allow storms be strong.

[Ralph's Weather]

12z Euro came in a bit more progressive and we need things to slow down for us to have any chance with this system. And to clarify, we are starting off with really really low chances as it is lol

The 12z FV3 still gives us a fighting chance

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018120912/fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_19.png


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018120912/fv3p_z500aNorm_eus_20.png

vs Euro

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018120912/ecmwf_z500aNorm_eus_6.png

That is an insanely deep upper low. You would think it could find stools cold to bring down on its western side. Not gonna bet on it being deep enough su this point though.

[Captmorg70]

We need to pick it up a bit, if we want to hit 100 pages in December! 300 Page Winter or Bust

If we get one of these potential storms near Christmas this place will blow up

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Christmas and beyond look very interesting on the FV3 and GFS... FV3 has a 1055 High barreling south on Christmas Day. GFS shows highs in the 40s.

[Brent]

12z Euro came in a bit more progressive and we need things to slow down for us to have any chance with this system. And to clarify, we are starting off with really really low chances as it is lol

The 12z FV3 still gives us a fighting chance

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018120912/fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_19.png


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018120912/fv3p_z500aNorm_eus_20.png

vs Euro

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018120912/ecmwf_z500aNorm_eus_6.png

That is an insanely deep upper low. You would think it could find stools cold to bring down on its western side. Not gonna bet on it being deep enough su this point though.

yeah kind of surprised it hasn't really shown any snow on the backside but I guess its a bit too warm

If we're getting those in a colder pattern this thread will be on fire

[bubba hotep]

00z GFS, just need to find some colder air

[Haris]

I'll help out getting this place to 100pages this month by posting this

[Ntxw]

March 21st 2010. We can work a slush if cold air can be found. Maybe 540dm or lower?

[Brent]

hmmmm the 0z Euro has some snow west of DFW and just west of the 35 corridor down to NW of Austin early Friday morning, there's a bullseye around 8 inches near Abilene

very localized band surrounded by rain

It looks like the storm is slower this run which works in our favor. The snow is all overnight Thursday into sunrise Friday then goes away