Texas Winter 2018-2019

[bubba hotep]

Both the 18z GEFS and 21z SREF throw up zeros for DFW snow totals with the weekend system.

[starsfan65]

Both the 18z GEFS and 21z SREF throw up zeros for DFW snow totals with the weekend system.

zeros?

[Quixotic]

If there are a lot of newbies around, perhaps a discussion about the 540 line and 850 mb temps is in order.

[Cerlin]

If there are a lot of newbies around, perhaps a discussion about the 540 line and 850 mb temps is in order.

That would be beneficial to me. I’m an aspiring meteorologist but I have zero experience and I’m using this forum (and other resources) to gain exposure to meteorology.

[bubba hotep]

Both the 18z GEFS and 21z SREF throw up zeros for DFW snow totals with the weekend system.

zeros?

As in, zero inches of snow.

[Brent]

Both the 18z GEFS and 21z SREF throw up zeros for DFW snow totals with the weekend system.

zeros?

As in, zero inches of snow.

basically the last almost 4 years in DFW

[bubba hotep]

If there are a lot of newbies around, perhaps a discussion about the 540 line and 850 mb temps is in order.

Its funny, before model soundings were widely available the 540 and 850 lines were gospel on wx forums and blogs (circa my DC days).

[Quixotic]

Both the 18z GEFS and 21z SREF throw up zeros for DFW snow totals with the weekend system.

This is a harbinger of things to come. The second and third systems are what I’m watching. These borderline systems mean we are on the front and eventually, we will win the battle.

[bubba hotep]

Delkus with an update.

[dhweather]

Both the 18z GEFS and 21z SREF throw up zeros for DFW snow totals with the weekend system.

This is a harbinger of things to come. The second and third systems are what I’m watching. These borderline systems mean we are on the front and eventually, we will win the battle.

I was encouraged about the system next Wednesday, but I'm worried about "glancing blows".

[dhweather]

Delkus with an update.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DxFF9AtXcAAOCxu.jpg

The image isn't showing up ??

[Brent]

Both the 18z GEFS and 21z SREF throw up zeros for DFW snow totals with the weekend system.

or
This is a harbinger of things to come. The second and third systems are what I’m watching. These borderline systems mean we are on the front and eventually, we will win the battle.

I was encouraged about the system next Wednesday, but I'm worried about "glancing blows".

yeah to me the Wednesday storm has far more potential but its in that stupid range zero has worked in our favor so far

The NAM is ugly for the weekend no snow(and its too warm during the day Saturday anyway to matter) and DFW is only at 30 Sunday morning zzzz

[OKMet83]

For those wanting to throw in the towel let me use a quote from the great ESPN Game Day Lee Corso "Not so fast my friends" We still have plenty of things on our side! Today's 12z Euro is one of them which still shows a Potential Winter Storm be it Snow and or Ice for early next week.. GFS FV3 has been sending ON AND OFF weak signals as well! Just because the runs are all of the place doesn't mean we need to go into all out panic mode! that's what models do I understand it's confusing as heck for the general public and frustrating for us forecasters but trust me the pattern we are getting into is much more favorable for a Winter Storm or two... So let's all calm down and sit back and enjoy the ride!

[Haris]

Off the topic but I have seen so many TV mets for the sake of oversimplifying things call this upper low the snowmaker for the weekend across the midwest and NE.

If you look at vort, its the seed S of Alaska that undercuts it....

The low is moving N!

[gpsnowman]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/k0ChrrV/Screenshot-at-Jan-16-20-40-57.png [/url]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/1Q4mfdv/Screenshot-at-Jan-16-20-40-22.png [/url]

Off the topic but I have seen so many TV mets for the sake of oversimplifying things call this upper low the snowmaker for the weekend across the midwest and NE.

If you look at vort, its the seed S of Alaska that undercuts it....

The low is moving N!

Steve McCauley mentions this exactly on his recent FB post. A southern portion of the main storm slamming the Pacific Coast is what will bring us our little storm Friday into Saturday. Weird, weather is truly fascinating.

[Texas Snow]

For those wanting to throw in the towel let me use a quote from the great ESPN Game Day Lee Corso "Not so fast my friends" We still have plenty of things on our side! Today's 12z Euro is one of them which still shows a Potential Winter Storm be it Snow and or Ice for early next week.. GFS FV3 has been sending ON AND OFF weak signals as well! Just because the runs are all of the place doesn't mean we need to go into all out panic mode! that's what models do I understand it's confusing as heck for the general public and frustrating for us forecasters but trust me the pattern we are getting into is much more favorable for a Winter Storm or two... So let's all calm down and sit back and enjoy the ride!

Preach Brother Okie!

[bubba hotep]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/k0ChrrV/Screenshot-at-Jan-16-20-40-57.png [/url]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/1Q4mfdv/Screenshot-at-Jan-16-20-40-22.png [/url]

Off the topic but I have seen so many TV mets for the sake of oversimplifying things call this upper low the snowmaker for the weekend across the midwest and NE.

If you look at vort, its the seed S of Alaska that undercuts it....

The low is moving N!

It is occluded and dissipates into the shortwave as it moves on shore, not so much moving north.

[Quixotic]

If there are a lot of newbies around, perhaps a discussion about the 540 line and 850 mb temps is in order.

That would be beneficial to me. I’m an aspiring meteorologist but I have zero experience and I’m using this forum (and other resources) to gain exposure to meteorology.

Great honesty. You’re golden.

540 line and the 850 0 line are basically demarcations of snow. If the 540 line (upper level) is over or south of your area, Snow is possible. 850 0 line is indicative of wwx. If you have the combo, well, hip hiop hooray. As bubbahotep pointed out though, soundings ( which indicate temps, dewpoints and winds throughout the atmosphere) are a better indicator. If you get used to this basic concept: progress by calculating thicknesses. That’s when you really have a grasp on what will happen. I’ve seen rain at 20F. I’ve seen snow at 50F. Keep that layer in mind and you’ll be good. Smarter people than me can explain it. I’m just bad at jargon. Best of luck to you.

[rwfromkansas]

One nice thing about West Texas was that you didn't really need the 540 line for snow. 546 often did it. There's still a lot I don't know. I have the Tim Vasquez forecasting book, but I need to read it when I can really focus. lol

[Lagreeneyes03]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/k0ChrrV/Screenshot-at-Jan-16-20-40-57.png [/url]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/1Q4mfdv/Screenshot-at-Jan-16-20-40-22.png [/url]

Off the topic but I have seen so many TV mets for the sake of oversimplifying things call this upper low the snowmaker for the weekend across the midwest and NE.

If you look at vort, its the seed S of Alaska that undercuts it....

The low is moving N!

Do we want it to move N? I always thought if the L was south of the 'Plex, we got winter weather. If not, "Cold Rain".