Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Brent]

The 12z Euro wasn't even that cold looking back 1 day is sort of cold(Tuesday) then average temps

[orangeblood]

Based on projected 500mb flow in the operational models and ensembles, it's looking like the coldest of winter will be over the next 6-9 days. Beyond then, we should see warming temps across the eastern half of the country as ridging builds over the Rockies into the Plains. The warming starts in early February. This may also shut down the snow chances for Texas this winter. Well, at least through mid February. It's possible the pattern could chance back later in February, but it's also possible that the warming trend will continue into March.

D15 Euro EPS has almost full on N. American torch...

Big caution in the 10-15....the EPS is hinting at tanking EPO again by day 12-13. There will be a sh*t load of cold around the conus and if the ridge pops in the eastern Pacific, any warm up will be extremely short-lived. Plus MJO forecast appear to finally be swinging around to the cold phases (8-1-2) from 2nd week in Feb on! Winter ain't over yet IMHO!!

[dhweather]

FV3 was supposed to launch tom but not anymore because of the shutdown.

It doesn’t matter though. The model is utter garbage IMO . Worse than the regular one which is a hard thing to do. It’s done so manh fantasy storms this season for the U.S . Not just TX

The code they are using for modeling is changing significantly. The new code was developed by the GFDL a few years ago, finite volume on a cubed sphere (thus FV3) and will run much more efficiently and scale as technology continues to develop faster and larger supercomputers. Current GFS code does not scale well.

I just found this - it's a great read, a 93 page powerpoint from NCEP model Evaluation Group (MEG) comparing GFS vs FV3 -

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/Alic ... MMARY.pptx


and here's 93 more pages of fun, with feedback on FV3 from NWS regions, CPC, NHC, WPC, etc. Again, a great read: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/Alic ... _EVAL.pptx

[weatherdude1108]

If the models truly are such garbage, we really don't know what is going to happen then, do we?

Nowcasting

Or wishcasting

[wxman57]

FV3 was supposed to launch tom but not anymore because of the shutdown.

It doesn’t matter though. The model is utter garbage IMO . Worse than the regular one which is a hard thing to do. It’s done so manh fantasy storms this season for the U.S . Not just TX

The code they are using for modeling is changing significantly. The new code was developed by the GFDL a few years ago, finite volume on a cubed sphere (thus FV3) and will run much more efficiently and scale as technology continues to develop faster and larger supercomputers. Current GFS code does not scale well.

I just found this - it's a great read, a 93 page powerpoint from NCEP model Evaluation Group (MEG) comparing GFS vs FV3 -

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/Alic ... MMARY.pptx


and here's 93 more pages of fun, with feedback on FV3 from NWS regions, CPC, NHC, WPC, etc. Again, a great read: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/Alic ... _EVAL.pptx

From the PowerPoint: Significant degradation of Day 6-7 Atlantic hurricane track forecasts

[dhweather]

From the PowerPoint: Significant degradation of Day 6-7 Atlantic hurricane track forecasts

Other tropics notes:

INTENSE TROPICAL DEEPENING NOT SEEN IN FV3GFS

DOUBLE-LOW CENTERS NOT SEEN IN FV3GFS FORECASTS OR ANALYSES

Intensity is improved over all basins

Tracks in AL and WP are improved for the first 5 days except at FH00, and degraded in day 6 and day 7. Track in EP is neutral

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro EPS now has the pattern change at D10. How long does the warm up last?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-en%20s/2019012312/ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png

Sliding into Phase 6. For this time of year, the RMM shows massive ridging over the US. So, the GFS is leaning towards that. I feel like its being a bit binary with this assumption though. I know the MJO is extremely important in weather, despite so many variables, but we shall see.

I posted yesterday that we are in P5 and will race into P6 over the next few days, so we are already in "warm" phases using traditional non filtered RMM composites. Even the +ENSO composites aren't a great match as the TPV is overwhelming the N. American pattern. Then beyond that, when looking at other representations of the MJO and tropical influences things are not as clear cut right now as the RMM makes them seem.

[Cerlin]

I’m fine with a warmup if it can reset our pattern to something more favorable afterwards.

[bubba hotep]

I’m fine with a warmup if it can reset our pattern to something more favorable afterwards.

That is what the Weeklies showed last night with a warm up and then a return of a some what more traditional looking weak +ENSO pattern. That would possibly leave us with 4 or 5 weeks of winter.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Based on projected 500mb flow in the operational models and ensembles, it's looking like the coldest of winter will be over the next 6-9 days. Beyond then, we should see warming temps across the eastern half of the country as ridging builds over the Rockies into the Plains. The warming starts in early February. This may also shut down the snow chances for Texas this winter. Well, at least through mid February. It's possible the pattern could chance back later in February, but it's also possible that the warming trend will continue into March.

D15 Euro EPS has almost full on N. American torch...

How does that put Florida Mid Feb?

[Brent]

I’m fine with a warmup if it can reset our pattern to something more favorable afterwards.

That is what the Weeklies showed last night with a warm up and then a return of a some what more traditional looking weak +ENSO pattern. That would possibly leave us with 4 or 5 weeks of winter.

I just hope its more than a bunch of teases

[hriverajr]

I have almost given up here in Del Rio. Give me sun for my solar panels so that I can bank some power. We have not gotten nearly as much rain here this winter like the rest of you. If this continues gonna be a hot hot summer. Next week's system probably our best shot at winter precip...and it's not good.

[spencer817]

I laugh every time someone says "in the long range" or "10-15 days" because this winter keeps getting pushed back. Give me my severe weather, I'm done!

[Brent]

I laugh every time someone says "in the long range" or "10-15 days" because this winter keeps getting pushed back. Give me my severe weather, I'm done!

Part of me does feel this way but the other part of me can't believe that such a promising winter is just over like that. I'm not giving up on February but I'm quickly starting to realize that unless something changes soon this winter may go down as the biggest cruel joke

[bubba hotep]

I laugh every time someone says "in the long range" or "10-15 days" because this winter keeps getting pushed back. Give me my severe weather, I'm done!

Part of me does feel this way but the other part of me can't believe that such a promising winter is just over like that. I'm not giving up on February but I'm quickly starting to realize that unless something changes soon this winter may go down as the biggest cruel joke

It's already snowed/sleeted several times here in Collin County! Just not enough to matter to anyone lol

[sphelps8681]

Surely Winter is not over for everyone. Texas is a big state. Would love all the winter weather peeps to focus in on the others in Texas who might get some snow if your saying ya'll won't. Would love if you could get it but in my area we would love it too!! Not that it would happen but would be pretty awesome. Winter ain't over yet.

[Brent]

I laugh every time someone says "in the long range" or "10-15 days" because this winter keeps getting pushed back. Give me my severe weather, I'm done!

Part of me does feel this way but the other part of me can't believe that such a promising winter is just over like that. I'm not giving up on February but I'm quickly starting to realize that unless something changes soon this winter may go down as the biggest cruel joke

It's already snowed/sleeted several times here in Collin County! Just not enough to matter to anyone lol

lol does it really count if it doesn't cancel work/school?

[Haris]

5 years ago today !

[TheProfessor]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/6Zxdrnf/Screen-Shot-2019-01-23-at-8-22-56-PM.png [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/nL8ZrQm/Screen-Shot-2019-01-23-at-8-22-23-PM.png [/url]


5 years ago today !

Heh, I remember this. It's when I first realized there was different criteria for winter storm warnings.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Are gonna temp bust again tonight? The forecasted low is 30 and it’s already 33...