Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Brent]

Feels amazing here in Euless today without all the rain. Looks like its not going to last long with whats brewing up down south. Maybe I should invest in a kayak

Good news is it looks like it'll be a progressive system so should be another nice weekend coming. I have really been enjoying the break that's for sure

With the way everything is setting up, we might actually have a real winter. ( by that I mean snow LOL) 03-04 and 10-11 had a great outcome for snow and it looks as though this might actually end up the same. Who knows though, warm air could come out of the blue and ruin it LOL (I hope not!)

if we can't get a good winter(real snow not just dry cold) with what everyone is saying I'm going to seriously wonder about the future of snow here

[CaptinCrunch]

I've been watching the North Pacific warmth anomaly. It's definitely an intriguing player we have not seen since 2013-2014 and 2014-2015.

If this weak-mod Nino gets a -AO to go with it boy will it be a noteworthy winter. The pre-dating signals for this winter is the best it has been in years. If it turns out to be a dud then you know there has been a serious climate shift to really through it off.

I'll take 2013-2014, 2014-2015 as those 2 Winters were the coldest since 2009-2010, and you would have to go futher back to the back to back Winters of 2000-2001, 2001-2002. So 5 of the last 17 have been somewhat colder than normal.

[Cpv17]

So far with everything I’ve seen it looks like the eastern half of Texas will have a better chance at seeing below average temps this winter.

[OKMet83]

So far with everything I’ve seen it looks like the eastern half of Texas will have a better chance at seeing below average temps this winter.

Too early to make an accurate call on that so any detailed maps you see take them with a grain of salt. Just know below normal temps, above normal precip will be *nearby* December and February will likely be the two most active months of the winter season. Stay tuned as I said previously it's going to be a fun one

[Portastorm]

If you all subscribe to Larry Cosgrove, you have read that he believes that winter will start in earnest for us in the Southern Plains and Texas in late December. Mild to some above normal temps though between now and then per his thoughts. We shall see.

[Cpv17]

So far with everything I’ve seen it looks like the eastern half of Texas will have a better chance at seeing below average temps this winter.

Too early to make an accurate call on that so any detailed maps you see take them with a grain of salt. Just know below normal temps, above normal precip will be *nearby* December and February will likely be the two most active months of the winter season. Stay tuned as I said previously it's going to be a fun one

I’ve seen several different winter forecasts on YouTube and just about every single one of them drill the southeast with the worst of the weather for this winter. The general average I’ve seen with all these forecasts combined is that Texas and Oklahoma will see slightly below normal temps (especially for the eastern halves of those states) and above average precipitation while the southeast sees way below average temps and above average precipitation and a lot of these forecasts are phasing the jets right over the southeast so they end up seeing a lot of winter storms.

[Ntxw]

So far with everything I’ve seen it looks like the eastern half of Texas will have a better chance at seeing below average temps this winter.

Too early to make an accurate call on that so any detailed maps you see take them with a grain of salt. Just know below normal temps, above normal precip will be *nearby* December and February will likely be the two most active months of the winter season. Stay tuned as I said previously it's going to be a fun one

I’ve seen several different winter forecasts on YouTube and just about every single one of them drill the southeast with the worst of the weather for this winter. The general average I’ve seen with all these forecasts combined is that Texas and Oklahoma will see slightly below normal temps (especially for the eastern halves of those states) and above average precipitation while the southeast sees way below average temps and above average precipitation and a lot of these forecasts are phasing the jets right over the southeast so they end up seeing a lot of winter storms.

Looks like they all followed Joe Bastardi and the east coast sensationalism . I don't take much value into these forecasts as I used to. Much of it is to garner viewership and aimed towards the East Coast, including the southeast. I digress though. You can easily put together in a few minutes the natural climo of weak ENSO events and come up with the same map. The stronger the ENSO Nino the more west it shifts. In a Strong El Nino the anomalies are to the southwest, and moderate El Nino is broader including the south-central plains.

This says nothing of winter storms, just pivoting of a more active subtropical jet and a lot of rain for the northern gulf coast.

[South Texas Storms]

My long range forecasting partner and I are both thinking that much of TX will see cooler and wetter than normal conditions this winter. We could certainly see another few snow events across the state, even as far south as south TX.

[Cpv17]

Too early to make an accurate call on that so any detailed maps you see take them with a grain of salt. Just know below normal temps, above normal precip will be *nearby* December and February will likely be the two most active months of the winter season. Stay tuned as I said previously it's going to be a fun one

I’ve seen several different winter forecasts on YouTube and just about every single one of them drill the southeast with the worst of the weather for this winter. The general average I’ve seen with all these forecasts combined is that Texas and Oklahoma will see slightly below normal temps (especially for the eastern halves of those states) and above average precipitation while the southeast sees way below average temps and above average precipitation and a lot of these forecasts are phasing the jets right over the southeast so they end up seeing a lot of winter storms.

Looks like they all followed Joe Bastardi and the east coast sensationalism . I don't take much value into these forecasts as I used to. Much of it is to garner viewership and aimed towards the East Coast, including the southeast. I digress though. You can easily put together in a few minutes the natural climo of weak ENSO events and come up with the same map. The stronger the ENSO Nino the more west it shifts. In a Strong El Nino the anomalies are to the southwest, and moderate El Nino is broader including the south-central plains.

This says nothing of winter storms, just pivoting of a more active subtropical jet and a lot of rain for the northern gulf coast.

All these forecasts are biased towards the east coast year in year out. They act like it’s impossible for the worst of the winter to be in the southern plains.

[SnowintheFalls]

Too early to make an accurate call on that so any detailed maps you see take them with a grain of salt. Just know below normal temps, above normal precip will be *nearby* December and February will likely be the two most active months of the winter season. Stay tuned as I said previously it's going to be a fun one

I’ve seen several different winter forecasts on YouTube and just about every single one of them drill the southeast with the worst of the weather for this winter. The general average I’ve seen with all these forecasts combined is that Texas and Oklahoma will see slightly below normal temps (especially for the eastern halves of those states) and above average precipitation while the southeast sees way below average temps and above average precipitation and a lot of these forecasts are phasing the jets right over the southeast so they end up seeing a lot of winter storms.

Looks like they all followed Joe Bastardi and the east coast sensationalism . I don't take much value into these forecasts as I used to. Much of it is to garner viewership and aimed towards the East Coast, including the southeast. I digress though. You can easily put together in a few minutes the natural climo of weak ENSO events and come up with the same map. The stronger the ENSO Nino the more west it shifts. In a Strong El Nino the anomalies are to the southwest, and moderate El Nino is broader including the south-central plains.

This says nothing of winter storms, just pivoting of a more active subtropical jet and a lot of rain for the northern gulf coast.

It is fun to see all the different long term forecasts but I have definitely learned to take them all with tempered enthusiasm. I do agree with the east coast bias in many of them. The main thing that I have learned from this board is that Mother Nature can definitely be defiant to our wishes!

[Yukon Cornelius]

http://firsthandweather.com/3993/2018-2 ... r-outlook/

[Portastorm]

http://firsthandweather.com/3993/2018-2019-winter-outlook/

Hey now ... THAT is a winter forecast! LOL. Don't know anything about the dude but I sure hope he's right.

[ATCcane]

http://firsthandweather.com/3993/2018-2019-winter-outlook/

Lock it in.....

[Yukon Cornelius]

http://firsthandweather.com/3993/2018-2019-winter-outlook/

Hey now ... THAT is a winter forecast! LOL. Don't know anything about the dude but I sure hope he's right.

He’s usually pretty accurate. I’m pretty skeptical of most winter forecasts but I always pay close attention to what firsthand weather puts out each year.

[Snowflake7]

http://firsthandweather.com/3993/2018-2019-winter-outlook/

Hey now ... THAT is a winter forecast! LOL. Don't know anything about the dude but I sure hope he's right.

He’s usually pretty accurate. I’m pretty skeptical of most winter forecasts but I always pay close attention to what firsthand weather puts out each year.

When do you predict this forecast to start taking shape?

[Lagreeneyes03]

This sounds a lot like 2009-2010

[South Texas Storms]

http://firsthandweather.com/3993/2018-2019-winter-outlook/

Hey now ... THAT is a winter forecast! LOL. Don't know anything about the dude but I sure hope he's right.

He’s usually pretty accurate. I’m pretty skeptical of most winter forecasts but I always pay close attention to what firsthand weather puts out each year.

Yeah the Firsthand Weather team is pretty accurate. I've been following them for several years and they usually do a pretty good job. I have no problems with their winter forecast this year.

[Brent]

This sounds a lot like 2009-2010

one can hope. 2009 no freeze at DFW til December

[Brent]

hmmm the 12z EPS must have some members with a wintry threat in DFW around November 12-14 because "snow" does appear on the precip chart

[CaptinCrunch]

CaptainCrunch’s 2018 Halloween Analogy

Over the last 16 years I have been doing a very non-scientific analogy where I look at October 31st and gauge how the following winter season of that year will turn out. It has been quite interesting on the accuracy of this 1 day with a 12-4 (75%) record. So how does this all work? Well I’m glad you asked, because it’s a very simple formula. I take that days H/L temp, and precip total to see if it’s above, or below that day’s average. Last year’s Halloween temps were 60/48 (-9) below the daily average, and recorded .04” of rain. My Winter outlook for 2017/18 then called for Cooler than average temps with average precip, but as it turned out that winter ended slightly above average with temps, and above average precip (thanks February).

2018 Halloween H69 L52 A61 (-2) P1.14”

So on to Winter 2018/19
Looking at analogs I'm going with a blend of 09-10, and 76-77, as these two El Nino's blend a solar minimal with an active southern jet. They both follow back/back La Nina’s, they both had an active wet Sept and Oct, and they both continued to be average or above precip wise thru March the following year, both were also colder than average.

09-10 first and last freeze dates (Dec 3rd March 21st) (45)
76-77 first and last freeze dates (Nov 13th Feb 27th) (51)

2018-19 first and last freeze dates purposed (Nov 18th March 9th) (46)
So my winter outlook has NCTX seeing slightly below average temps and above average precip. The average first freeze for DFW is Nov 23rd. Average # of freezes for DFW is 32.
Snow/ice events this winter? YES

This is the best 2018-19 Winter outlook I’ve read so far.
http://firsthandweather.com/3993/2018-2 ... r-outlook/

So I was asked why the slightly cooler temps rather than much cooler or just colder than average as some of the other maps show. The reason is here in NTX we often have wide swings in temperatures. The typical near 80 one day then not getting out of the 40s the next. We often have more small stretches of warmer than average temps, followed by periods of below average temperatures versus the opposite. These swings usually translate to a monthly mean that's only 1-2 degrees below average.

It has been a while since we had a significant stretch of really cold weather, something like 1983 record 295 hrs straight of 32 or below temperatures.