Texas Winter 2018-2019

[rwfromkansas]

I have started to finally have my temp drop in north FW from 66 now to 59.2. But, looks to stay west still.

It was so mild all morning in Weatherford . . . seemed like spring. So I thought there would be no chance of seeing any snow tonight. Starting to have hope again. The temperature has dropped from 59 to 48 in the past hour. And that is without any precip.

[Snowflake7]

Wow this rain is some serious business. Surprised no flood watches have been put up.

Yeah I was eating in Dallas off 75 and Henderson Knox and it started hailing while we were there. Now it's sunny but thundering. How odd lol

How big was the hail?

[Brent]

this is one of the best thunderstorms in months here...

At least the rain verified there was doubts last night

[foulbeast]

From FWD AFD this afternoon.

One thing of concern is that none of the models, including the high resolution solutions have a good handle on the current position of the upper circulation (all are about 50 to 75 miles too far south). Therefore, there is still some uncertainty as to just far north winter precipitation will occur (thus the reason for leaving the rain/snow mix in the forecast north of I-20 overnight/Friday morning).

[rwfromkansas]

I am down to 50 but the rate of decline is rapidly slowing.

[Texas Snow]

With the temperature in the mid 60s in the D-FW area now, I think snow chances are low.

I just threw a handful of ice cubes out in my front yard so I think we may be back in business temperature-wise. TexDot get the snow plows ready!

[SouthernMet]

Rain has changed over to Snow in Abilene & San Angelo.

[Cerlin]

Man, it got chilly quickly...have we officially written off snow for DFW?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

So this system brought us snow in SE TX. The current system is much stronger. Before i get too excited, mets, how is this system different? Colder air at the surface?

[weatherdude1108]

We'll see if we get any frozen stuff or not. Not looking likely in Austin proper. Maybe in some of the northern and western burbs. Winds haven't been extraordinary so far. Nothing I'm not used to.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
331 PM CST Thu Dec 13 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Windy conditions occurring this afternoon across South Central Texas.
Brief High Wind Warning criteria was met this afternoon along the
Rio Grande. Winds should settle along the Rio Grande in Wind Advisory
criteria through the evening hours and the High Wind Warning should
be allowed to expire at 6 PM. The windy conditions will continue
overnight as the potent low moving out of Central and into East Texas
deepens. We extended the Wind Advisory through 6 AM Friday as some
areas may still see frequent gusts into criteria, especially northern
areas where precip could help to mix higher momentum down.

Main cold surge wrapping into the Hill Country this afternoon and
temperatures have been steadily falling through the 50s into the 40s.
This surge will arrive into the central and eastern areas through the
late afternoon and evening hours.

Rain wrapping around back side of the dynamic low will spread into
the northern Hill Country this evening and into Central Texas
overnight. A rain/snow mix is still possible late tonight across the
northern Kerr, Gillespie, northern Blanco, Llano, Burnet and
possibly western Travis and western Williamson counties. Given the
warm near surface conditions no accumulation is currently expected
with possibly the exception of portions of northern Gillespie, Llano
and Burnet counties. Light accumulations of snow could briefly occur
across these counties on grassy and elevated surfaces overnight into
Friday morning where potential for lowering of the freezing level is
greatest and some more moderate precip rates occur. Impacts are
expected to be minimal at this time so we have elected to hold off on
a Winter Weather Advisory and will continue to address the potential
with a Special Weather Statement. Trends will be watched closely
through the late evening hours.

The precipitation should exit to the northeast of the area Friday
morning. A breezy to windy day is forecast Friday on the back side
of the departing system. Some locations could flirt with Wind
Advisory Criteria. We have also issued a Fire Weather Watch for
western areas on Friday afternoon where RH values will be lowest
combined with the gusty winds.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Weak shortwave ridging builds into the area Friday night into
Saturday with dry conditions over the weekend and into early next
week. Cool mornings over the weekend with seasonal afternoons. Low
temperatures moderate mid week as low level moisture returns into the
region. The next upper level system looks to impact the region
Wednesday into Thursday with a chance for showers.

[gboudx]

Winter will come for DFW and so will the winter weather, just don't look for it before New Years, so far December has remained below normal temp wise with a current -1.9 and above average precip.

I just don't want another Christmas in shorts in SELA.

[Brent]

Man, it got chilly quickly...have we officially written off snow for DFW?

Other than maybe a flake mixed with rain i dont expect anything

[SoupBone]

Winter will come for DFW and so will the winter weather, just don't look for it before New Years, so far December has remained below normal temp wise with a current -1.9 and above average precip.

I just don't want another Christmas in shorts in SELA.

The extended forecast for SE Texas shows a high of 59.

I need it at least 10 degrees colder!

[cheezyWXguy]

Winter will come for DFW and so will the winter weather, just don't look for it before New Years, so far December has remained below normal temp wise with a current -1.9 and above average precip.

I just don't want another Christmas in shorts in SELA.

The extended forecast for SE Texas shows a high of 59.

I need it at least 10 degrees colder!

Just remember, the period we're in was supposed to be above normal temperatures with no chance of winter weather. Even if this doesn't deliver snow for NTX, this is a lot more tolerable than projections from a week or two ago seemed to suggest. A lot could change between now and Christmas, or New Years or whatever timeframe you want to use. But as wxman57 said earlier, its not even winter yet. We have a looong way to go to see real winter weather.

[orangeblood]

I just don't want another Christmas in shorts in SELA.

The extended forecast for SE Texas shows a high of 59.

I need it at least 10 degrees colder!

Just remember, the period we're in was supposed to be above normal temperatures with no chance of winter weather. Even if this doesn't deliver snow for NTX, this is a lot more tolerable than projections from a week or two ago seemed to suggest. A lot could change between now and Christmas, or New Years or whatever timeframe you want to use. But as wxman57 said earlier, its not even winter yet. We have a looong way to go to see real winter weather.

100% agreed, really foolish to look beyond 7-10 days and have any clue

[Ralph's Weather]

I just don't want another Christmas in shorts in SELA.

The extended forecast for SE Texas shows a high of 59.

I need it at least 10 degrees colder!

Just remember, the period we're in was supposed to be above normal temperatures with no chance of winter weather. Even if this doesn't deliver snow for NTX, this is a lot more tolerable than projections from a week or two ago seemed to suggest. A lot could change between now and Christmas, or New Years or whatever timeframe you want to use. But as wxman57 said earlier, its not even winter yet. We have a looong way to go to see real winter weather.

Yep, a week ago this storm was modeled to be over Missouri so tons can change.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Looking at the HRRR, its showing rain, when if you look at the soundings, it will be snowing. I think the area of snowfall will be more widespread than models are showing.

How much above normal? 70's? Gulf Coast and NOLA (I'll be there for NYE)

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Looking at the HRRR, its showing rain, when if you look at the soundings, it will be snowing. I think the area of snowfall will be more widespread than models are showing.

How much above normal? 70's? Gulf Coast and NOLA (I'll be there for NYE)

I don’t see any above normal temps for SE TX or Gulf Coast through Christmas Week. Just seasonal to slightly below... 50s and 60s for highs.

[Brent]

The extended forecast for SE Texas shows a high of 59.

I need it at least 10 degrees colder!

Just remember, the period we're in was supposed to be above normal temperatures with no chance of winter weather. Even if this doesn't deliver snow for NTX, this is a lot more tolerable than projections from a week or two ago seemed to suggest. A lot could change between now and Christmas, or New Years or whatever timeframe you want to use. But as wxman57 said earlier, its not even winter yet. We have a looong way to go to see real winter weather.

Yep, a week ago this storm was modeled to be over Missouri so tons can change.

yup I remember how we were gonna have a break this week too

[Lptx]

Just had a heavy downpour & while looking out the window had sleet pellets mixing in & sticking to the window briefly! Slight glimmer of hope.. Poolville Area.