Texas Winter 2018-2019

[gboudx]

From Jeff Lindner for you SETX folks:

Heavy rainfall event for SE TX today into early Saturday

Flash Flood Watch will be in effect from noon today until noon Saturday.

Rises on area creeks, bayous, and rivers likely.

Powerful upper level storm system moving into TX today will result in impactful weather across much of the state with ice and snow across the NW portions of the state to heavy rainfall and flooding over the central and eastern parts of the state and some risk of severe thunderstorms near the coast and Galveston Bay later this afternoon. Moisture has significantly increased over the region as expected and will continue to increase as a strong 45-55kt low level jet brings a tropical air mass into the region from the deep southern Gulf. PWS will continue to climb today peaking around 2.0 inches this evening and overnight which is near maximum record levels for this time of year. Record PW max for CRP in early December is 2.07 inches so we are certainly in that ballpark and will be running 2-3 SD above normal…in other words we will be seeing summertime moisture interacting with the stronger dynamics of a wintertime storm system.

Surface cold front is slowly making progress into SE TX this morning and is along a line from near Lake Livingston to near Navasota to south of San Antonio and moving southeast slowly. This front is acting as a surface lifting feature and helping to develop scattered showers and a few thunderstorms over the northern half of the region this morning. Short wave ejects out of the trough to the west will increase lift over the top of this slow moving surface front today and will result in an increase of rainfall coverage. Surface front may make it down toward the US 59 corridor by this evening, but 925mb and 850mb front will remain stalled out over the central and northern sections of SE TX. Combination of these features, and significant incoming lift from the main storm system will result in widespread development of corridors of thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. Favorable Gulf inflow into these features support a period for sustained training rainfall from mid to late afternoon into the overnight hours.

Rainfall Amounts:

There has been no significant change in the forecasted rainfall amounts with a widespread 3-6 inches likely for much of the region with isolated totals of 8-10 inches possible. Shorter term guidance is favoring areas along a line from about Columbus to Conroe to Lake Livingston for some of those higher isolated totals, but much of this will depend on where the surface, 925,850mb fronts slow or stall and where any sustained training develops. Overall there has not been much change in the rainfall reasoning for the last few days. This will be a widespread event with much of SE, E and C TX seeing 3-5 inches of rainfall. Latest WPC update has expanded the moderate risk of excessive rainfall and flooding to include all of SE TX and much of eastern TX.

Hydro:

Forecasted rainfall amounts will certainly lead to rapid rises on area watersheds including creeks, bayous, and rivers. Most concern is for the Trinity, San Jacinto, Brazos, Navasota, San Bernard, and Colorado basins and the Harris County bayous and creeks across the northern, northwestern, and northeastern parts of the county (Cypress, Willow, Little Cypress, Cedar, West and East Forks of the San Jacinto, South Mayde, Langham, Bear). It is likely that heavy rainfall will impact all of the Harris County system and cannot rule out flooding on any of the watersheds especially if those isolated higher totals are realized. Think Brays, White Oak, and Buffalo can likely handle at least 6 inches of rainfall before any concerns…but some of their tributaries (Brickhouse Gully, Willow Waterhole, Keegans Bayou) could have problems with lesser amounts. Think most creeks and bayous can handle about 4.5-5.0 inches in 6 hours…with any higher totals likely resulting in more serious concerns for overbank flooding potential. If higher hourly rainfall rates materialize over the urban areas…2-3 inches per hour…significant street flooding and ponding would be likely.

Lake Conroe:

Lake Conroe is currently near normal pool elevation and currently not releasing any water.

Addicks/Barker:

Both reservoirs and currently empty with normal gate settings in place. Floodgates will be closed today. Forecasted rainfall amounts of both reservoirs bring pools to levels that may impact minor recreational roads and facilities. Should rainfall of near 10 inches fall across the reservoirs impacts to the major roads (HWY 6, Eldridge Pkwy, Westheimer Pkwy) would be possible

[weatherdude1108]

This is greatness!!! Sums up winter in the south in one meme!!!

Weather models -
http://i68.tinypic.com/r6wxe9.jpg

Love it!!!

[SnowintheFalls]

The NWS has backed off a little bit with the snow and winter precip for WF and surrounding areas, along with raising the temps slightly. As of this morning they still seem to think that we will see something but confidence in what and how much is lower right now. It will be interesting to see what else changes throughout the day.

They backed off considerably. This has been one heck of a roller coaster ride to this point! Still enjoying the seasonably cool weather though.

[snowballzzz]

Man.... Just took a walk and it feels like it's going to snow out there. Fingers crossed for a surprise.

[wxman57]

Man.... Just took a walk and it feels like it's going to snow out there. Fingers crossed for a surprise.

Models still indicate too much above-freezing air in the lower 4000-5000 ft level over your area. Really cold rain is most likely.

[SoupBone]

Man.... Just took a walk and it feels like it's going to snow out there. Fingers crossed for a surprise.

Models still indicate too much above-freezing air in the lower 4000-5000 ft level over your area. Really cold rain is most likely.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Currently 37 with a windchill of 29 with drizzle.

[Cerlin]

Currently 37 with a windchill of 29 with drizzle.

I haven’t been keeping up with the projected temperature for your area—is that about where it was forecasted or...?

[Cpv17]

The models have shifted the heaviest qpf much farther east in the last 24 hours. Central and north Texas went from seeing a potential of 4-6” to 1-2”.

[Ntxw]

The models have shifted the heaviest qpf much farther east in the last 24 hours. Central and north Texas went from seeing a potential of 4-6” to 1-2”.

Models have really converged qpf to the gulf low. This was always a risk and happens all the time in winter. Hard to get moisture return far inland when it is cut off with MCS in SE Texas.

[Haris]

Not much rain so far at all and no snow happening obviously. Pretty unimpressed

Now wait another few weeks

[Yukon Cornelius]

Currently 37 with a windchill of 29 with drizzle.

I haven’t been keeping up with the projected temperature for your area—is that about where it was forecasted or...?

It’s a little bit lower than forecasted.

[Ralph's Weather]

The models have shifted the heaviest qpf much farther east in the last 24 hours. Central and north Texas went from seeing a potential of 4-6” to 1-2”.

Models have really converged qpf to the gulf low. This was always a risk and happens all the time in winter. Hard to get moisture return far inland when it is cut off with MCS in SE Texas.

I should have caught that. Guess I'm rusty on winter weather at this time of year.

[weatherdude1108]

Not much rain so far at all and no snow happening obviously. Pretty unimpressed

Now wait another few weeks

Have had a steady drizzle to occasionally moderate rain all day here at work. Not sure how much. Silver lining is at least the lakes are full and this will help to maintain the levels, without incurring more property damage. But I could use another inch or two, just to keep it in check. This dry November with the dry cold fronts really dried out the surface soil in my yard. Still moist to wet just underneath, and the vegetation is dormant along with the cool temps, which keeps the soils hydrated longer.

What's gunna be bad is the Ashe Juniper (Mountain Cedar). I noticed the trees already growing out their orange pods (that produce the pollen), way back in October. They'll "pop" they're white powder pollen any time now once we get a few good dry cold fronts. The Fall rains I'm sure helped them out.

[Haris]

Not much rain so far at all and no snow happening obviously. Pretty unimpressed

Now wait another few weeks

Well, I’d delete this comment if I could.

Flood advisory and gauge reporting 1.13” . More coming from the SW. oh well

[Haris]

1 year ago today

[weatherdude1108]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/Z6Md9T9/A2121-D6-D-B80-C-472-A-BD61-24-EA641115-BA.jpg [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/nbB8YVm/1-FB56377-5-BA1-406-B-BE3-D-62-A2-EF5-A5-E6-A.jpg [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/16RscSJ/438402-BC-60-E0-4-B1-D-8-B90-B37-A948-ED775.jpg [/url]

1 year ago today

Amazing! I forgot about that. I looked through my photos. I had measured it.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1071204093610348545

[Brent]

So ready for something other than cold rain

But at least we're not Oklahoma City

[BrokenGlass]

Man this place went quiet fast!


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