Texas Winter 2018-2019

[orangeblood]

Don't panic y'all there is plenty of cold for everybody. I like the ensembles look. Generally speaking everyone along and east of the Rockies should get cold and maybe storms. The ENS keeps the height rises off the west coast which is good for Texas as well as some -NAO.

My concern going forward is suppression more than not cold enough.

Agreed, this is Big League Cold that can overwhelm the continent....plenty of analogs proving that point (77/78 Jan/Feb keep on popping up)!! No reason to panic, the latest FV3 illustrates this...there's a 1060MB plus HP building behind this cold. In fact the 6Z would be record breaking for a lot of the country (including Texas) if it came to pass!!

[bubba hotep]

Don't panic y'all there is plenty of cold for everybody. I like the ensembles look. Generally speaking everyone along and east of the Rockies should get cold and maybe storms. The ENS keeps the height rises off the west coast which is good for Texas as well as some -NAO.

My concern going forward is suppression more than not cold enough.

Agreed, this is Big League Cold that can overwhelm the continent....plenty of analogs proving that point (77/78 Jan/Feb keep on popping up)!! No reason to panic, the latest FV3 illustrates this...there's a 1060MB plus HP building behind this cold. In fact the 6Z would be record breaking for a lot of the country (including Texas) if it came to pass!!



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2019011306/fv3p_T2ma_namer_56.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2019011306/fv3p_T2ma_namer_65.png

Looking at the records, the cold of the late 70's was very impressive with '76 - '79 accounting for 3 of the Top 10 coldest winters at DFW. However, we saw two of the warmest winters here from '15 - '17. Anyway, I like the GEFS in the long range and it has been scoring out a bit better than the EPS at times.

00z GEFS 5D avg for end of run, no end in sight. We just need to get a couple of systems with the right track and we could see snow on top of snow.

[bubba hotep]

Dr. V with an interesting tweet, esp. since free AAM forecast aren't easy to find at the moment (unless someone knows of one?). Positive shift in AAM is often a sign of the atmosphere taking on a classic +ENSO look combined with cold anomalies across the Central US with a southern shifted storm track.

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS is boring for next weekend, continues with nina like dry positive tilted longwave trough.

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS offers up the next system. I'm not ready to punt on next weekend but as long as the cold is around anyone of these systems could get it done, so why not the next one lol

[bubba hotep]

For our SE Texas friends

[Portastorm]

Gang (and this is especially for you relative newcomers), please, please, PLEASE don't get hung up on the specific, surface weather shown by longer range models beyond a few days. Some posts within the last 24 hours suggest some of you are ready to call it a winter! There is a massive pattern change underway. The expert long range forecasters have been talking for days about it. The longer range atmospheric indices show it. It is happening! So don't despair.

The GFS for example is way off even in the details for 10 days out. See examples below and how the placement of the lower pressures in the Southern Plains/Texas differ as compared to the placement of high pressure along the western CONUS. The differences in these details have HUGE impacts downstream. So, those GFS maps showing snow/rain/whatever 10 days out ... don't trust them. Focus on the upper level flow of air, the source regions of where that air is coming from, and as so many smart posters have said already in this thread ... the details will work themselves out. Old Man Winter is coming to Texas and there's no doubt about that.

12z GFS showing 500mb flow for 0z Wed 1/23/19


0z GFS showing 500mb flow for 0z Wed 1/23/19

[ThunderSleetDreams]

For our SE Texas friends

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019011312/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_41.png

Yes please!

[Ptarmigan]

Don't panic y'all there is plenty of cold for everybody. I like the ensembles look. Generally speaking everyone along and east of the Rockies should get cold and maybe storms. The ENS keeps the height rises off the west coast which is good for Texas as well as some -NAO.

My concern going forward is suppression more than not cold enough.

Agreed, this is Big League Cold that can overwhelm the continent....plenty of analogs proving that point (77/78 Jan/Feb keep on popping up)!! No reason to panic, the latest FV3 illustrates this...there's a 1060MB plus HP building behind this cold. In fact the 6Z would be record breaking for a lot of the country (including Texas) if it came to pass!!



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2019011306/fv3p_T2ma_namer_56.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2019011306/fv3p_T2ma_namer_65.png

Looking at the records, the cold of the late 70's was very impressive with '76 - '79 accounting for 3 of the Top 10 coldest winters at DFW. However, we saw two of the warmest winters here from '15 - '17. Anyway, I like the GEFS in the long range and it has been scoring out a bit better than the EPS at times.

00z GEFS 5D avg for end of run, no end in sight. We just need to get a couple of systems with the right track and we could see snow on top of snow.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2019011300/gfs-ens_T850aMean_namer_12.png

The 1970s had cold winters. 1880s, 1890s, 1900s, and 1910s also had cold winters. 1886, 1895, 1899, 1904-1905, and 1911-1912 had cold winters.

[Ntxw]

Gang (and this is especially for you relative newcomers), please, please, PLEASE don't get hung up on the specific, surface weather shown by longer range models beyond a few days. Some posts within the last 24 hours suggest some of you are ready to call it a winter! There is a massive pattern change underway. The expert long range forecasters have been talking for days about it. The longer range atmospheric indices show it. It is happening! So don't despair.

The GFS for example is way off even in the details for 10 days out. See examples below and how the placement of the lower pressures in the Southern Plains/Texas differ as compared to the placement of high pressure along the western CONUS. The differences in these details have HUGE impacts downstream. So, those GFS maps showing snow/rain/whatever 10 days out ... don't trust them. Focus on the upper level flow of air, the source regions of where that air is coming from, and as so many smart posters have said already in this thread ... the details will work themselves out. Old Man Winter is coming to Texas and there's no doubt about that.

12z GFS showing 500mb flow for 0z Wed 1/23/19
http://i64.tinypic.com/34qwk9i.png

0z GFS showing 500mb flow for 0z Wed 1/23/19
http://i67.tinypic.com/676yz7.png

I couldn't agree more. We are entering a period where drastic changes are happening on the Pacific side. The past 2 days of ensemble runs are getting better placement for Texas and the plains. I've seen posts worrying about cold sliding east, folks should look at the ensembles and see where the OP models may move. Pacific blocking is shifting off the west coast and this is ideal for whole conus cold dump. This is the mechanism we've waited for to deliver it. Be patient with the OP models as they try and adjust to the big Ocean.

[orangeblood]

Gang (and this is especially for you relative newcomers), please, please, PLEASE don't get hung up on the specific, surface weather shown by longer range models beyond a few days. Some posts within the last 24 hours suggest some of you are ready to call it a winter! There is a massive pattern change underway. The expert long range forecasters have been talking for days about it. The longer range atmospheric indices show it. It is happening! So don't despair.

The GFS for example is way off even in the details for 10 days out. See examples below and how the placement of the lower pressures in the Southern Plains/Texas differ as compared to the placement of high pressure along the western CONUS. The differences in these details have HUGE impacts downstream. So, those GFS maps showing snow/rain/whatever 10 days out ... don't trust them. Focus on the upper level flow of air, the source regions of where that air is coming from, and as so many smart posters have said already in this thread ... the details will work themselves out. Old Man Winter is coming to Texas and there's no doubt about that.

12z GFS showing 500mb flow for 0z Wed 1/23/19
http://i64.tinypic.com/34qwk9i.png

0z GFS showing 500mb flow for 0z Wed 1/23/19
http://i67.tinypic.com/676yz7.png

I couldn't agree more. We are entering a period where drastic changes are happening on the Pacific side. The past 2 days of ensemble runs are getting better placement for Texas and the plains. I've seen posts worrying about cold sliding east, folks should look at the ensembles and see where the OP models may move. Pacific blocking is shifting off the west coast and this is ideal for whole conus cold dump. This is the mechanism we've waited for to deliver it. Be patient with the OP models as they try and adjust to the big Ocean.

Yep, Patience is key...even if we miss out on this weekends system. It could actually be a blessing in disguise as that system will continue building the snowpack to the north that will help us in the long run!!!

[northjaxpro]

Gang (and this is especially for you relative newcomers), please, please, PLEASE don't get hung up on the specific, surface weather shown by longer range models beyond a few days. Some posts within the last 24 hours suggest some of you are ready to call it a winter! There is a massive pattern change underway. The expert long range forecasters have been talking for days about it. The longer range atmospheric indices show it. It is happening! So don't despair.

The GFS for example is way off even in the details for 10 days out. See examples below and how the placement of the lower pressures in the Southern Plains/Texas differ as compared to the placement of high pressure along the western CONUS. The differences in these details have HUGE impacts downstream. So, those GFS maps showing snow/rain/whatever 10 days out ... don't trust them. Focus on the upper level flow of air, the source regions of where that air is coming from, and as so many smart posters have said already in this thread ... the details will work themselves out. Old Man Winter is coming to Texas and there's no doubt about that.

12z GFS showing 500mb flow for 0z Wed 1/23/19
http://i64.tinypic.com/34qwk9i.png

0z GFS showing 500mb flow for 0z Wed 1/23/19
http://i67.tinypic.com/676yz7.png

Excellent post!! I have been harping on this similar subject as well in the Florida Weather thread earlier today. This indeed is a massive pattern change and this one will not take into effect quickly. It will be a gradual, but definite change and a for a rather prolonged period when it is finally set in place..

[sphelps8681]

Gang (and this is especially for you relative newcomers), please, please, PLEASE don't get hung up on the specific, surface weather shown by longer range models beyond a few days. Some posts within the last 24 hours suggest some of you are ready to call it a winter! There is a massive pattern change underway. The expert long range forecasters have been talking for days about it. The longer range atmospheric indices show it. It is happening! So don't despair.

The GFS for example is way off even in the details for 10 days out. See examples below and how the placement of the lower pressures in the Southern Plains/Texas differ as compared to the placement of high pressure along the western CONUS. The differences in these details have HUGE impacts downstream. So, those GFS maps showing snow/rain/whatever 10 days out ... don't trust them. Focus on the upper level flow of air, the source regions of where that air is coming from, and as so many smart posters have said already in this thread ... the details will work themselves out. Old Man Winter is coming to Texas and there's no doubt about that.

12z GFS showing 500mb flow for 0z Wed 1/23/19
http://i64.tinypic.com/34qwk9i.png

0z GFS showing 500mb flow for 0z Wed 1/23/19
http://i67.tinypic.com/676yz7.png

Excellent post!! I have been harping on this similar subject as well in the Florida Weather thread earlier today. This indeed is a massive pattern change and this one will not take into effect quickly. It will be a gradual, but definite change and a for a rather prolonged period when it is finally set in place..

Are you thinking more like February for this to finally take place?

[Cpv17]

The cold snap we had back in November, I remember the GFS was saying the coldest anomalies would miss Texas to the east for a while, but once we got inside a few days from the event, it started to shift back more in our favor.

[Rgv20]

12zGEFS does not get any better than this at the 500mb level if you like cold....fun weeks ahead!

[northjaxpro]

Gang (and this is especially for you relative newcomers), please, please, PLEASE don't get hung up on the specific, surface weather shown by longer range models beyond a few days. Some posts within the last 24 hours suggest some of you are ready to call it a winter! There is a massive pattern change underway. The expert long range forecasters have been talking for days about it. The longer range atmospheric indices show it. It is happening! So don't despair.

The GFS for example is way off even in the details for 10 days out. See examples below and how the placement of the lower pressures in the Southern Plains/Texas differ as compared to the placement of high pressure along the western CONUS. The differences in these details have HUGE impacts downstream. So, those GFS maps showing snow/rain/whatever 10 days out ... don't trust them. Focus on the upper level flow of air, the source regions of where that air is coming from, and as so many smart posters have said already in this thread ... the details will work themselves out. Old Man Winter is coming to Texas and there's no doubt about that.

12z GFS showing 500mb flow for 0z Wed 1/23/19
http://i64.tinypic.com/34qwk9i.png

0z GFS showing 500mb flow for 0z Wed 1/23/19
http://i67.tinypic.com/676yz7.png

Excellent post!! I have been harping on this similar subject as well in the Florida Weather thread earlier today. This indeed is a massive pattern change and this one will not take into effect quickly. It will be a gradual, but definite change and a for a rather prolonged period when it is finally set in place..

Are you thinking more like February for this to finally take place?

I am thinking the PV and overall large scale pattern will all be established firmly by the end of January, very beginning of February at the latest.

[Haris]

I am getting sooo excited. Please let this happen! I feel confident about it too!

[Cpv17]

12z Euro has lows in the mid to upper 20’s across southeast TX for next Sunday and Monday mornings!

[South Texas Storms]

Confidence continues to increase that we will see a period of cold weather and accompanying risks for frozen precipitation over the next several weeks. Long-range operational and ensemble models are in general agreement on this, with several rounds of arctic air pushing southward out of Canada.

[OKMet83]

IMO A Blockbuster type pattern is in the making for portions of the Southern Plains including TX starting next weekend... As was said above in previous postings you must not get caught up in each run as models are going to be all over the place and are trying to catch onto the changes that are coming. Bottom line as of RIGHT NOW the GFS/EURO show a COLD RAIN just ahead of the actual freezing temps but I expect that cold air to rush in quicker than the models are expecting. Areas to watch would be just north of the DFW Metroplex late Fri into Sat for a frz rain event.... Wed the 23rd + or - a day or two needs to be watched also for a winter storm!

I fully expect a winter storm within the next 7-10 days so expect us to add to the pages and quickly