Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Brent]

Check out hour 180 on the 18Z FV3 GFS. The clipper doesn't dry up like it does on the regular GFS. This scenario was there a few days ago and went away. Now, it's back.

Don't look at the snowfall total map if you are from DFW, I beg you, for your own sanity

Although it’s almost a perfect snowfall illustration of the past 1450 days!!!

Pretty soon Houston gonna be averaging more snow than Dallas

[bubba hotep]

18z GFS with an Epic...

https://i.ibb.co/FVQz1QC/gfs-T850a-namer-fh264-384.gif

Head fake. Cold bomb loaded up but let's bleed it all off to the East lol

Why’s it doing that?

The NPAC pattern retrogrades (images are from 18z GEFS, it is easier to see with the smoothing in the ensembles)



Pacific jet extends under the retrograde



Mild Pacific air floods most of the US.

[Cerlin]

Pretty soon Houston gonna be averaging more snow than Dallas

It’s just really begging the question now—is this just luck or climo? Has our climo really changed that much or are we just super unlucky? How much of this is attributed to the effects of the super El Niño? Just hard to tell...

[Cpv17]

18z GFS with an Epic...

https://i.ibb.co/FVQz1QC/gfs-T850a-namer-fh264-384.gif

Head fake. Cold bomb loaded up but let's bleed it all off to the East lol

Why’s it doing that?

The NPAC pattern retrogrades (images are from 18z GEFS, it is easier to see with the smoothing in the ensembles)

https://i.ibb.co/smpSpF6/gfs-ens-z500a-Mean-npac-fh216-384.gif

Pacific jet extends under the retrograde

https://i.ibb.co/FqjN4R1/gfs-ens-uv250-npac-fh240-384.gif

Mild Pacific air floods most of the US.

Makes a lot more sense after looking at that. Weird though.

[gpsnowman]

Check out hour 180 on the 18Z FV3 GFS. The clipper doesn't dry up like it does on the regular GFS. This scenario was there a few days ago and went away. Now, it's back.

Don't look at the snowfall total map if you are from DFW, I beg you, for your own sanity

Sorry, had to laugh at that one. Dallas heat island no doubt. Just needs a big smiley face on it.

Or a middle finger.

[Brent]

Pretty soon Houston gonna be averaging more snow than Dallas

It’s just really begging the question now—is this just luck or climo? Has our climo really changed that much or are we just super unlucky? How much of this is attributed to the effects of the super El Niño? Just hard to tell...

I was thinking we were unlucky but how long can this go on for

[bubba hotep]

Why’s it doing that?

That's not good....

I think its reading the MJO phase its moving into. I believe it will be in a warm phase by then. Need to look at it again.

I don't know about the MJO. We are currently in P5 and will rapidly move into P6, based on the RMM.



Those are the "warm" phases using the traditional composites.



This is what the ensembles are doing during that "warm" phase propagation.



This is what you get when you run the composite for P6 during +ENSO.



With all that said, Ntxw made a very good point yesterday regarding what we are seeing, when one looks beyond the RMM plots.



Ultimately, I think we have a warm Pacific Ocean that never truly coupled with the atmosphere during the run up to this weak +ENSO event. Then throw in a record breaking SSW event and we are basically just throwing our hands up at this point.

[bubba hotep]

Can anyone ground truth the returns out NW of DFW? Also, watch how the front undercuts some storms as it pushes into the strong WAA regime.

[hriverajr]

Pretty soon Houston gonna be averaging more snow than Dallas

It’s just really begging the question now—is this just luck or climo? Has our climo really changed that much or are we just super unlucky? How much of this is attributed to the effects of the super El Niño? Just hard to tell...

I was thinking we were unlucky but how long can this go on for

I'm going to say one thing.. first off I don't know why the possibility of human made climate change is political. So... Energy was needed to create all the plant material that led to the oil deposits correct? The energy is there. So when we burn the oil.. we are releasing that energy that was originally used to grow said plants. Would energy being released result in higher temps, I'm not sure of that, but it is energy that came from a previous time. That's all.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Winter Cancel?

[hriverajr]

Winter Cancel?

It just means.. we don't know lol

[orangeblood]

Pretty soon Houston gonna be averaging more snow than Dallas

It’s just really begging the question now—is this just luck or climo? Has our climo really changed that much or are we just super unlucky? How much of this is attributed to the effects of the super El Niño? Just hard to tell...

IMHO, mostly terrible luck with a minor influence from the super nino

[Cerlin]

It’s just really begging the question now—is this just luck or climo? Has our climo really changed that much or are we just super unlucky? How much of this is attributed to the effects of the super El Niño? Just hard to tell...

I was thinking we were unlucky but how long can this go on for

I'm going to say one thing.. first off I don't know why the possibility of human made climate change is political. So... Energy was needed to create all the plant material that led to the oil deposits correct? The energy is there. So when we burn the oil.. we are releasing that energy that was originally used to grow said plants. Would energy being released result in higher temps, I'm not sure of that, but it is energy that came from a previous time. That's all.

I think the effects more come from the speed of the release (millions of years of energy from plants and animals in the past being released over a century)...but it’s best not to get into that.

[gpsnowman]

Can anyone ground truth the returns out NW of DFW? Also, watch how the front undercuts some storms as it pushes into the strong WAA regime.

https://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/animations/codnexlab.NEXRAD.FWS.N0Q.20190123.141.024ani.gif

Just took a quick glance
Abilene 39 degrees
Childress cloudy and 30
Wichita Falls cloudy 35
Mineral Wells cloudy 39
I do see snow returns on WFAA though.

[spencer817]

I know I keep stating this, but these past 4 years were EXACTLY like during/after the last super nino of 96-97, very little snow in DFW from 97-2000. It didnt really ever surprise me and won't surprise me if we dont get anything this season. Its probably the result of the atmosphere recovering.Theres always next year, and severe weather is fun too!

[Cerlin]

Checked on mPing and no reports of snow around there but as of 2 hours ago some reports in Abeline. I have no clue on how accurate that really is.

[Captmorg70]

Can anyone ground truth the returns out NW of DFW? Also, watch how the front undercuts some storms as it pushes into the strong WAA regime.

https://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/animations/codnexlab.NEXRAD.FWS.N0Q.20190123.141.024ani.gif

Not sure about the snow, but we’re getting light rain/sprinkle here in Denton county

[bubba hotep]

Can anyone ground truth the returns out NW of DFW? Also, watch how the front undercuts some storms as it pushes into the strong WAA regime.

https://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/animations/codnexlab.NEXRAD.FWS.N0Q.20190123.141.024ani.gif

Not sure about the snow, but we’re getting light rain/sprinkle here in Denton county

I wasn't thinking any snow at this point, but maybe later as the cold air crashes in. There have been returns all afternoon and evening with that trailing area of 850mb frontogenesis. If that can maintain, maybe some flurries or snow showers very early tomorrow morning as it pushes out of DFW.

[Captmorg70]

Can anyone ground truth the returns out NW of DFW? Also, watch how the front undercuts some storms as it pushes into the strong WAA regime.

https://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/animations/codnexlab.NEXRAD.FWS.N0Q.20190123.141.024ani.gif

Not sure about the snow, but we’re getting light rain/sprinkle here in Denton county

I wasn't thinking any snow at this point, but maybe later as the cold air crashes in. There have been returns all afternoon and evening with that trailing area of 850mb frontogenesis. If that can maintain, maybe some flurries or snow showers very early tomorrow morning as it pushes out of DFW.

Oh I meant the snow returns out west of Bowie. Got an idea why none of these returns are showing up on short range models or Hrrr?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

18z GFS with an Epic...

https://i.ibb.co/FVQz1QC/gfs-T850a-namer-fh264-384.gif

Head fake. Cold bomb loaded up but let's bleed it all off to the East lol

Why’s it doing that?

The NPAC pattern retrogrades (images are from 18z GEFS, it is easier to see with the smoothing in the ensembles)

https://i.ibb.co/smpSpF6/gfs-ens-z500a-Mean-npac-fh216-384.gif

Pacific jet extends under the retrograde

https://i.ibb.co/FqjN4R1/gfs-ens-uv250%20-npac-fh240-384.gif

Mild Pacific air floods most of the US.

Tropical forcing in bottom left hand corner of the gif is decreasing too.