"Winter is far from over" according to Bob Rose. Doesn't look like any worthwhile moisture to create much in the way of Wintry mischief over the next couple weeks.
A Series of Canadian Cold Fronts Expected this Week. Winter is Far from Over.
Tuesday, January 22, 2019 3:43 PM
An active weather pattern will be in place across Texas over the next several days as a series of cold fronts track through the region, bringing bouts of wind, colder temperatures and rainfall. Rain amounts are not expected to be very heavy.
Monday's weather maps showed a vigorous trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere located over the Four Corners region. This system was drawing moisture north from the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in the development of widespread clouds across the region. The trough is forecast to move to the east, allowing a Pacific and a Canadian front to sweep south through our region tonight into Wednesday morning. In advance of two cold fronts, some spotty light rain shows will be possible this afternoon. However, rain amounts, if any, will be very low. Cloudy, breezy and mild conditions will be in place this afternoon. The temperature will generally reach the upper 60s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions and the low to mid-70s across the coastal plains.
The Pacific cold front is forecast to track east into the Hill Country afternoon, reaching the Interstate 35 corridor early this evening. Meanwhile, a Canadian cold front currently located over the Texas Panhandle is forecast to sink southeast, reaching the northern Hill Country by late evening. The front should continue moving southeast overnight, pushing off the middle Texas coast before daybreak. Rain showers are forecast increase in areal coverage across the eastern Hill Country and Central Texas regions this evening as the two cold fronts move through the area. Showers should increase across the coastal plains region late this evening and continue overnight. The rain is forecast to end across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions around daybreak Wednesday. The rain should end about mid-morning Wednesday across the coastal plains region. The probability for rain overnight will be near 50-60 percent. Rain amounts are not predicted to be very high. Totals are forecast to average less than a quarter inch across the eastern Hill Country and the Interstate 35 corridor. Totals of 0.25 to 0.75 inches are forecast across the coastal plains.
I do want to point out there is a very outside chance a few sleet pellets could develop across the northern counties, including the Austin area, around daybreak as the main upper trough moves overhead. A couple of forecast solutions indicate there may be just enough atmospheric lift and cold air in place to produce a brief window for a small amount of sleet. Again, this is a very low probability forecast. The potential for sleet should quickly end.
Breezy and colder conditions will develop overnight behind the Canadian cold front. Low temperatures Wednesday morning will include the low 30s across the Hill Country, the mid and upper 30s across Central Texas and be around 40 degrees across the coastal plains. Expect a northwesterly wind at 10-20 mph with occasional gusts to 30 mph.
Sunny, dry and cool weather is forecast Wednesday through Friday. A large dome of Canadian high pressure is forecast to settle across Texas following Tuesday night's cold front. High temperatures Wednesday will be around 50-52 degrees, warming close to 60 degrees Thursday. Readings look to drop back to the middle 50s Friday following the passage of a weak cold front. Low temperatures Thursday morning will generally be in the low 30s while low temperatures Friday morning will generally be in the mid and upper 30s.
Rain showers are forecast to develop across the region Saturday into Saturday evening when another trough of low pressure swings southeast out of the southern Rockies. The probability for rain will be near 40 percent during the day, dropping to 20 percent Saturday evening. The chance for rain should end before midnight Saturday night. Rain amounts are forecast to generally be between 0.25 and 0.50 inches. Saturday's weather is shaping up to be cloudy and cool with high temperatures in the mid-50s. Clouds should clear Saturday night. Low temperatures Sunday morning will range from the low 30s across the Hill Country to around 40 degrees towards the coast.
The weather will be sunny next Sunday and Monday. High temperatures both days are forecast to be around 60 degrees. The low temperature Monday morning will be near 40 degrees.
Forecast solutions call for yet another trough of low pressure to swing southeast out of the Rockies next Monday night into Tuesday morning. As of now, little to no rain is expected with this system. However, this next trough is forecast to tap into an area of arctic air over western Canada that will be moving to the south. Much colder temperatures are predicted next Tuesday and Wednesday as the arctic air settles south across Texas. High temperatures Tuesday are forecast to be in the upper 40s, warming to the low 50s Wednesday. Low temperatures next Wednesday morning are forecast to be around 28-30 degrees. Lows next Thursday morning are predicted to be around 40 degrees.
Sunny and dry weather is forecast Thursday into Friday. High temperatures will be in the 50s, with lows in the 40s. There are indications yet another cold front will move through the area next Friday, bringing another shot of colder air for the following weekend.
No significant or heavy rain is forecast for our region over the next 2-week period.
https://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-we ... ather.aspx
Texas Winter 2018-2019
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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weatherdude1108
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- Location: Northwest Austin/Cedar Park, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
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The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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weatherdude1108
- Category 5
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- Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:04 pm
- Location: Northwest Austin/Cedar Park, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
A tease for some sleet down here in the northern reaches, and chilly/chili rain Saturday. Otherwise, chap stick/moisturizer sales/humidifier usage will increase with the same ole' dry, wasted cold.
000
FXUS64 KEWX 222042
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
242 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019
.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
Mostly cloudy skies persists across the region as mid and upper level
lift increases as a strong upper trough approaches the area from the
west. At the surface, temperatures currently range from the upper
50s in the Hill Country to lower 70s in the southeastern CWA. A pre-
frontal trough axis is moving through the Hill Country which has led
to slightly cooler temperatures this afternoon. The main cold front
is located along a line from near Midland to Wichita Falls. Current
radar imagery shows some elevated light returns as a result of the
mid-level lift across our eastern areas, but little to nothing of
this is reaching the ground as a dry layer remains below 700 mb. Some
of the high-res model guidance continues to develop some light
showers that would reach the ground later this afternoon for areas
east of the pre-frontal trough.
The cold front is expected to reach the northern areas around 8 PM
and will then move south through the entire CWA around 2 AM. There
could be a weak line of showers along the front as it makes it to the
eastern counties where better low-level moisture should be located.
Rain chances will actually be best for areas mainly along and east of
the I35 corridor post-frontal as the main trough axis brings upper
support to the area. This will help increase lift and develop
scattered showers for these areas mainly between 9 PM and 3 AM.
Rainfall will move out of the area by the mid morning hours
Wednesday.
There has been some talk around for possible sleet mixing
in with the rain, but at the present time, forecast soundings appear
much too warm for this to occur. Even if it were to happen, surface
temperatures will be near 38-40 after midnight and any frozen pellets
would immediately melt upon reaching the surface.
In addition to the rain chances, winds tonight behind the front will
be around 15-25 mph with higher gusts. There could be a site or two
that briefly flirt with wind advisory criteria, but this should not
be long enough to warrant any advisories behind this cold front. Lows
tonight will bottom out in the middle 30s to lower 40s. Clearing
skies can be expected tommorow with afternoon highs reaching the 50s.
Clear skies, light winds, and dry air should allow for lows tomorrow
night to reach the freezing mark for portions of the Hill Country
and I35 corridors with temperatures just a few degrees warmer for
the rest of the forecast area.
&&
.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Dry weather will continue for the beginning of the long-term forecast
with cool weather continuing through Friday. Yesterday, there was
some disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF on a front and subsequent
rain chances for the area on Saturday. The operational GFS yesterday
was the warmest and driest in the extended vs its ensemble members,
but today the operation run has come into agreement with the wetter
and cooler members and the ECMWF. A strong upper low should drop
southeast into the area on Saturday with a cold front and most likely
a good chance of rain for much of the area. Increased PoPs for the
area with 50 percent now forecasted for most locations except the
western areas. This front will keep temperatures cool through Monday,
but a stronger front is progged by both the GFS and ECMWF to come
through on Tuesday. At this time both models agree that this front
will be dry, but it could possibly bring a freeze to much of the area
Tuesday night.
000
FXUS64 KEWX 222042
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
242 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019
.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
Mostly cloudy skies persists across the region as mid and upper level
lift increases as a strong upper trough approaches the area from the
west. At the surface, temperatures currently range from the upper
50s in the Hill Country to lower 70s in the southeastern CWA. A pre-
frontal trough axis is moving through the Hill Country which has led
to slightly cooler temperatures this afternoon. The main cold front
is located along a line from near Midland to Wichita Falls. Current
radar imagery shows some elevated light returns as a result of the
mid-level lift across our eastern areas, but little to nothing of
this is reaching the ground as a dry layer remains below 700 mb. Some
of the high-res model guidance continues to develop some light
showers that would reach the ground later this afternoon for areas
east of the pre-frontal trough.
The cold front is expected to reach the northern areas around 8 PM
and will then move south through the entire CWA around 2 AM. There
could be a weak line of showers along the front as it makes it to the
eastern counties where better low-level moisture should be located.
Rain chances will actually be best for areas mainly along and east of
the I35 corridor post-frontal as the main trough axis brings upper
support to the area. This will help increase lift and develop
scattered showers for these areas mainly between 9 PM and 3 AM.
Rainfall will move out of the area by the mid morning hours
Wednesday.
There has been some talk around for possible sleet mixing
in with the rain, but at the present time, forecast soundings appear
much too warm for this to occur. Even if it were to happen, surface
temperatures will be near 38-40 after midnight and any frozen pellets
would immediately melt upon reaching the surface.
In addition to the rain chances, winds tonight behind the front will
be around 15-25 mph with higher gusts. There could be a site or two
that briefly flirt with wind advisory criteria, but this should not
be long enough to warrant any advisories behind this cold front. Lows
tonight will bottom out in the middle 30s to lower 40s. Clearing
skies can be expected tommorow with afternoon highs reaching the 50s.
Clear skies, light winds, and dry air should allow for lows tomorrow
night to reach the freezing mark for portions of the Hill Country
and I35 corridors with temperatures just a few degrees warmer for
the rest of the forecast area.
&&
.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Dry weather will continue for the beginning of the long-term forecast
with cool weather continuing through Friday. Yesterday, there was
some disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF on a front and subsequent
rain chances for the area on Saturday. The operational GFS yesterday
was the warmest and driest in the extended vs its ensemble members,
but today the operation run has come into agreement with the wetter
and cooler members and the ECMWF. A strong upper low should drop
southeast into the area on Saturday with a cold front and most likely
a good chance of rain for much of the area. Increased PoPs for the
area with 50 percent now forecasted for most locations except the
western areas. This front will keep temperatures cool through Monday,
but a stronger front is progged by both the GFS and ECMWF to come
through on Tuesday. At this time both models agree that this front
will be dry, but it could possibly bring a freeze to much of the area
Tuesday night.
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The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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TheProfessor
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 3505
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- Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2013 10:56 am
- Location: Wichita, Kansas
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Every time we build a good snowpack here a cutter comes and melts everything. 
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An alumnus of The Ohio State University.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
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wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22480
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Here's a snipping from Houston NWS' latest AFD. Note that he is talking about snow potential north of Houston (Huntsville area).
So...here`s the deal with the snow. If we`re going to trust model
algorithms, it looks pretty solid for a mix, or even full
changeover to snow right at the back end of the precip in the
morning. And given that guidance seems relatively unanimous in
generating an Fgen band behind the front in the morning hours over
our northern reaches, my confidence in seeing some flakes up there
is higher today. Even one wild member of the GEFS drops an inch
of snow on Huntsville. Of course, we know not to trust model
algorithms, right? Right? Taking a look at some hi-res model
soundings indicates things are going to be a bit more complicated.
3km NAM soundings linger rain a little bit longer into the
morning (good for snow!) but is also slower to cool the column,
probably because low level dry air doesn`t come in terribly
quickly. At the same time, things still dry out effectively aloft,
robbing us of moisture in the dendritic growth zone (bad for snow
- can you say, DZ/FZDZ?) As a result, we don`t even have snow as
an initial phase but for a few short hours in the morning, and we
may not be cold enough to prevent melting.
The HRRR, on the other hand, is much more aggressive with low
level dry air. So much so, that precip may be turned off entirely
in the coldest air by 7am, effectively shutting out snow potential
through evaporation/sublimation. But...that also opens up a lot
of potential for wet bulbing...and indeed, a profile following
the wet bulb temperature is entirely below freezing, with
saturation in the DGZ. So...if any flakes can actually survive the
trip to the ground without sublimating...we might see a brief,
albeit light, change fully to snow. These seem to generally
describe the two extremes of the situation, and so I shoot for a
forecast somewhat in the middle. This would result in a brief,
partial changeover to snow around and north of Huntsville in a
window from 4am into the mid-morning. Accumulation would be nil,
and with temperatures right now in the 60s and lower 70s, the
ground will almost certainly be too warm for anything other than
wet ground.
So...here`s the deal with the snow. If we`re going to trust model
algorithms, it looks pretty solid for a mix, or even full
changeover to snow right at the back end of the precip in the
morning. And given that guidance seems relatively unanimous in
generating an Fgen band behind the front in the morning hours over
our northern reaches, my confidence in seeing some flakes up there
is higher today. Even one wild member of the GEFS drops an inch
of snow on Huntsville. Of course, we know not to trust model
algorithms, right? Right? Taking a look at some hi-res model
soundings indicates things are going to be a bit more complicated.
3km NAM soundings linger rain a little bit longer into the
morning (good for snow!) but is also slower to cool the column,
probably because low level dry air doesn`t come in terribly
quickly. At the same time, things still dry out effectively aloft,
robbing us of moisture in the dendritic growth zone (bad for snow
- can you say, DZ/FZDZ?) As a result, we don`t even have snow as
an initial phase but for a few short hours in the morning, and we
may not be cold enough to prevent melting.
The HRRR, on the other hand, is much more aggressive with low
level dry air. So much so, that precip may be turned off entirely
in the coldest air by 7am, effectively shutting out snow potential
through evaporation/sublimation. But...that also opens up a lot
of potential for wet bulbing...and indeed, a profile following
the wet bulb temperature is entirely below freezing, with
saturation in the DGZ. So...if any flakes can actually survive the
trip to the ground without sublimating...we might see a brief,
albeit light, change fully to snow. These seem to generally
describe the two extremes of the situation, and so I shoot for a
forecast somewhat in the middle. This would result in a brief,
partial changeover to snow around and north of Huntsville in a
window from 4am into the mid-morning. Accumulation would be nil,
and with temperatures right now in the 60s and lower 70s, the
ground will almost certainly be too warm for anything other than
wet ground.
1 likes
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Ralph's Weather
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2968
- Age: 36
- Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2013 11:55 am
- Location: Lindale, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
wxman57 wrote:Here's a snipping from Houston NWS' latest AFD. Note that he is talking about snow potential north of Houston (Huntsville area).
It is an interesting set up at least for us snow starved Texans. A changeover to mix and eventually maybe all snow is possible anywhere N of I-10 and E of I-35 generally. The most likely area seems to be along a line from College Station to Texarkana and points 50 miles E and W of that line including Palestine, Tyler, Longview, Sulphur Springs and maybe down to Huntsville, Lufkin and Shreveport and maybe as far west as eastern DFW. Even areas close to Austin could see some sleet. Amounts of snow/sleet will most likely stay below an inch generally.
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bubba hotep
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5454
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- Location: Collin County Texas
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
18z GFS with an Epic...
Head fake. Cold bomb loaded up but let's bleed it all off to the East lol
Head fake. Cold bomb loaded up but let's bleed it all off to the East lol
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
I was just outside for about ten minutes and you could see the front approaching us—it just hit Frisco and temperatures felt like they dropped 10 degrees in 5 minutes. The wind went from a subtle breeze to tremendous gusts in a matter of minutes. So cool.
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Undergraduate Meteorology Student at the University of Oklahoma and Operator at the Oklahoma Mesonet.
All opinions independent of employers and the university.
All opinions independent of employers and the university.
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
bubba hotep wrote:18z GFS with an Epic...
https://i.ibb.co/FVQz1QC/gfs-T850a-namer-fh264-384.gif
Head fake. Cold bomb loaded up but let's bleed it all off to the East lol
Why’s it doing that?
1 likes
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Cpv17 wrote:bubba hotep wrote:18z GFS with an Epic...
https://i.ibb.co/FVQz1QC/gfs-T850a-namer-fh264-384.gif
Head fake. Cold bomb loaded up but let's bleed it all off to the East lol
Why’s it doing that?
That's not good....
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Check out hour 180 on the 18Z FV3 GFS. The clipper doesn't dry up like it does on the regular GFS. This scenario was there a few days ago and went away. Now, it's back.
3 likes
-
orangeblood
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 3334
- Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
- Location: Fort Worth, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
harp wrote:Check out hour 180 on the 18Z FV3 GFS. The clipper doesn't dry up like it does on the regular GFS. This scenario was there a few days ago and went away. Now, it's back.
Have some sort of support from around 5 of the 20 GFS members, it’s not much but at least it’s something
2 likes
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
bubba hotep wrote:18z GFS with an Epic...
https://i.ibb.co/FVQz1QC/gfs-T850a-namer-fh264-384.gif
Head fake. Cold bomb loaded up but let's bleed it all off to the East lol
The evolution of the pattern in that run (not that I would remotely trust it) makes absolutely no sense to my eyes
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Yukon Cornelius
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TeamPlayersBlue
- Category 5
- Posts: 3307
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 1:44 am
- Location: Denver/Applewood, CO
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
harp wrote:Cpv17 wrote:bubba hotep wrote:18z GFS with an Epic...
https://i.ibb.co/FVQz1QC/gfs-T850a-namer-fh264-384.gif
Head fake. Cold bomb loaded up but let's bleed it all off to the East lol
Why’s it doing that?
That's not good....
I think its reading the MJO phase its moving into. I believe it will be in a warm phase by then. Need to look at it again.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
orangeblood wrote:harp wrote:Check out hour 180 on the 18Z FV3 GFS. The clipper doesn't dry up like it does on the regular GFS. This scenario was there a few days ago and went away. Now, it's back.
Have some sort of support from around 5 of the 20 GFS members, it’s not much but at least it’s something
Well at least it’s something, I suppose.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
hriverajr wrote:bubba hotep wrote:18z GFS with an Epic...
https://i.ibb.co/FVQz1QC/gfs-T850a-namer-fh264-384.gif
Head fake. Cold bomb loaded up but let's bleed it all off to the East lol
The evolution of the pattern in that run (not that I would remotely trust it) makes absolutely no sense to my eyes
A lot of things in the weather don’t make sense lol like this winter, for one
2 likes
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Texas Snow
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 730
- Joined: Mon Oct 19, 2015 12:06 pm
- Location: N. Dallas & Cedar Creek Lake
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
harp wrote:Check out hour 180 on the 18Z FV3 GFS. The clipper doesn't dry up like it does on the regular GFS. This scenario was there a few days ago and went away. Now, it's back.
Don't look at the snowfall total map if you are from DFW, I beg you, for your own sanity
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"Don't let wishcastin get in the way of your forecastin"
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Texas Snow wrote:harp wrote:Check out hour 180 on the 18Z FV3 GFS. The clipper doesn't dry up like it does on the regular GFS. This scenario was there a few days ago and went away. Now, it's back.
Don't look at the snowfall total map if you are from DFW, I beg you, for your own sanity
Thank goodness it’s too far out.
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Undergraduate Meteorology Student at the University of Oklahoma and Operator at the Oklahoma Mesonet.
All opinions independent of employers and the university.
All opinions independent of employers and the university.
-
orangeblood
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 3334
- Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
- Location: Fort Worth, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Texas Snow wrote:harp wrote:Check out hour 180 on the 18Z FV3 GFS. The clipper doesn't dry up like it does on the regular GFS. This scenario was there a few days ago and went away. Now, it's back.
Don't look at the snowfall total map if you are from DFW, I beg you, for your own sanity
Although it’s almost a perfect snowfall illustration of the past 1450 days!!!
Last edited by orangeblood on Tue Jan 22, 2019 8:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Texas Snow wrote:harp wrote:Check out hour 180 on the 18Z FV3 GFS. The clipper doesn't dry up like it does on the regular GFS. This scenario was there a few days ago and went away. Now, it's back.
Don't look at the snowfall total map if you are from DFW, I beg you, for your own sanity
Sorry, had to laugh at that one. Dallas heat island no doubt. Just needs a big smiley face on it.
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