Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Shoshana]

I was really surprised when I took the pup out this morning and the grass (ok the many grassy weeds that need mowing) was completely frost covered. I popped inside to check the temp and it was right at 32f. I saw it was supposed to be 87f later this week. I have seen 87f the day before an ice storm, but somehow that’s not going to happen this year...

[northjaxpro]

If I put all of that together along with what I have seen with my own eyes the last few years in that trees and flowers now bloom earlier than ever ... I'm thinking this may be the new normal. I'll go one further ... I am speculating that the busted forecasts of so many national forecasters for this winter are a result of the changing climate messing with what used to be expected results from certain atmospheric indices (PNA, AO, NAO, etc.). #UneducatedOpinion

I am in agreement with your theory here Portastorm. I have my own theories as well, but I basically agree with your thoughts about this. Just look at the recent SSWE that bought us the Polar Vortex anomaly into the Great Lakes and Midwest region. We certainly did not get the -NAO that many , including yours truly, was anticipating to happen during that time from late January into the first week of February. It never materialized. The GEFS even forecasted a -NAO in mid January. The pattern and set-up was all there for that to happen too.. I am still amazed that the -NAO did not happen.

[rwfromkansas]

I think it's too easy to just jump to global warming/climate change. There are also natural cycles that play a role and have an impact. Even with a general pattern appearing to move in the right direction, sometimes things just don't work out, and I don't think that's necessarily climate change. The central plains had a decent winter so far....best in years. It just didn't quite get cold enough to bring that down south into OK/TX.

[Ralph's Weather]

I have thankfully seen about 2" of rain from the past couple storms. I barely missed some pretty heavy freezing rain/sleet showers on Friday that all tracked just barely to my south by just a few miles. That plus a few flizzards make this not a total bust season though I would love to see some accumulating snow. I also would like to see something below the 23-25f lows that I have had a number of mornings. I still cling to hope that 2014 and 2015 provide of late season storms, but as others have said this season has sure not played out as expected.

[Quixotic]

I have thankfully seen about 2" of rain from the past couple storms. I barely missed some pretty heavy freezing rain/sleet showers on Friday that all tracked just barely to my south by just a few miles. That plus a few flizzards make this not a total bust season though I would love to see some accumulating snow. I also would like to see something below the 23-25f lows that I have had a number of mornings. I still cling to hope that 2014 and 2015 provide of late season storms, but as others have said this season has sure not played out as expected.

I know I’ve gotten arguments on this on the synoptic pattern, but as far as sensible weather is concerned, 94-95 is my pick as the most similar winter.

The question is: what went wrong? Why didn’t the MJO propagate eastward into more favorable phases? Was it the IO? Was it the QBO which was trending positive at 30 mb? Was the enso too far west?

A SE ridge during a positive enso is unusual but it makes sense as the forcing seemed to reside in Nina phases 5 & 6.

[JDawg512]

I think it's too easy to just jump to global warming/climate change. There are also natural cycles that play a role and have an impact. Even with a general pattern appearing to move in the right direction, sometimes things just don't work out, and I don't think that's necessarily climate change. The central plains had a decent winter so far....best in years. It just didn't quite get cold enough to bring that down south into OK/TX.

I studied Environmental Sciences and climatology and still do as a hobby. There are a number of factors which scientists take into consideration including natural cycles that we know the Earth goes through. Everything from the wobble of the axis tilt to volcanic activity, to sun cycles. It's pretty clear that what is occurring now does not conform to natural cycles. I won't get into it anymore than that here since this thread focuses on general weather, however you are welcome to PM me and I'll explain in more detail if you are interested.

Regarding the upcoming heat, not looking forward to it. Wouldn't be so had if it rained for the next few days with temps in the 80s but I'm not going to want to do any yard work with all that sunshine. At least it got cloudy throughout the day today. Got a few things done this afternoon.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

As I sit in my corner cubicle in our operations center, I can hear Arctic Thunder telling South Texas Storms (who sits just across from us) that he's going "a lot warmer" with his forecasts". Arctic Thunder says he "threw in the towel" as far as Texas winter weather weeks ago. Meanwhile, South Texas Storms is talking about blowing up my wall for NEXT winter. it seems he has conceded, too. His bet that Houston's Bush Airport will reach 25F by February 15th was a bad gamble. I'll be reinforcing my wall during the summer months.

In other news, the 6Z FV3-GFS says "never mind", as far as that D-FW snow storm around the 27th-28th.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019021306&fh=336

When do we get these warm temps? Next week in DFW is looking pretty rough. Too chilly for my liking. I've thrown in the towel on snow and as a heat lover, I'm looking forward to hopefully a warmer and stormier spring

Someone after my own heart. Nice to see a fellow warm weather lover here. We probably have another 4 weeks or so before the real warm-up begins.

Can we have a summer cancel??? Well, maybe a spring cancel??? Let’s make Wxman 57 a deal and we will accept a winter cancel in exchange for a summer cancel.

[Ntxw]

Concerning the tread splitting idea for general chatter vs. analytical posts, I think that if there is really anything winter weather-wise to analyze in this thread that the posts will change accordingly. I don't like the idea of having to monitor posts on an analytical thread for signs of "chatter" that needs to be moved to another thread.

It has worked over the years between a model thread and discussion when there is a tropical threat. A lot to work out though it won't be easy.

Yeah, but you've got a whole lot more people posting on the tropics threads, and those go off the rails quickly. The only threads I've seen nearly maintain it's intent 100% of the time are the Recon threads.

That we have less posters is probably easier to moderate and move things as needed compared to the tropics if there are two. But as noted only been discussion among us and no intention yet of moving forward with it.

Side note:
The problem has been no other thread on the forum has become what the Texas Winter Thread has done. There has been problem posts here and there in other threads but it's not been taking up pages and pages among pages, the other threads have kept the maturity, of course we are the busiest winter thread so naturally there will be more but just ask for a little bit more consideration when posting something. We absolutely 100% agree that winter for most of us has sucked, it's been hype, it's been model letdowns but many of us have made it too personal and dragged the thread down with it. Look at the Florida thread, or ENSO thread, or any other Texas seasonal thread. There are grievances and most note it but it doesn't reflect many, many of pages in the topic. Try putting yourself in a moderator's shoes to keep stability and well reasoned posts.

[cheezyWXguy]

Concerning the tread splitting idea for general chatter vs. analytical posts, I think that if there is really anything winter weather-wise to analyze in this thread that the posts will change accordingly. I don't like the idea of having to monitor posts on an analytical thread for signs of "chatter" that needs to be moved to another thread.

It has worked over the years between a model thread and discussion when there is a tropical threat. A lot to work out though it won't be easy.

Initially I agreed with you, but the more I thought about it, the more "when there is a tropical threat" became the operative phrase. In the Active Storms forum, when there are threats, there are so many people and so much dialogue that chatter really can overwhelm analyses, and I fully support the separation of content. Until we have an active storm, models, speculation, and general chatter are still part of the thread, in the Talking Tropics forum.

I tend to see the Winter Weather board as more similar to the Talking Tropics board than the Active Storms one. Much of our time in this particular forum is spent on speculation and watching model runs for storms that have come nowhere close to establishing themselves yet, and when real threats do arise, the topic gets back on track quickly. Although I'm not the biggest fan of posts full of complaints of boredom, I don't think there's much consequence in real analysis being overshadowed when there are no imminent threats. Those who care to go in-depth will see it, and outsiders who only come to this site when something is happening won't miss anything.

[Ntxw]

Initially I agreed with you, but the more I thought about it, the more "when there is a tropical threat" became the operative phrase. In the Active Storms forum, when there are threats, there are so many people and so much dialogue that chatter really can overwhelm analyses, and I fully support the separation of content. Until we have an active storm, models, speculation, and general chatter are still part of the thread, in the Talking Tropics forum.

I tend to see the Winter Weather board as more similar to the Talking Tropics board than the Active Storms one. Much of our time in this particular forum is spent on speculation and watching model runs for storms that have come nowhere close to establishing themselves yet, and when real threats do arise, the topic gets back on track quickly. Although I'm not the biggest fan of posts full of complaints of boredom, I don't think there's much consequence in real analysis being overshadowed when there are no imminent threats. Those who care to go in-depth will see it, and outsiders who only come to this site when something is happening won't miss anything.

Do we consider spanning out specific threads for specific threats? For instance "December 1-3rd Winter Storm Discussion." There will not be many in a given season most years it might not be too difficult to do.

[cheezyWXguy]

Initially I agreed with you, but the more I thought about it, the more "when there is a tropical threat" became the operative phrase. In the Active Storms forum, when there are threats, there are so many people and so much dialogue that chatter really can overwhelm analyses, and I fully support the separation of content. Until we have an active storm, models, speculation, and general chatter are still part of the thread, in the Talking Tropics forum.

I tend to see the Winter Weather board as more similar to the Talking Tropics board than the Active Storms one. Much of our time in this particular forum is spent on speculation and watching model runs for storms that have come nowhere close to establishing themselves yet, and when real threats do arise, the topic gets back on track quickly. Although I'm not the biggest fan of posts full of complaints of boredom, I don't think there's much consequence in real analysis being overshadowed when there are no imminent threats. Those who care to go in-depth will see it, and outsiders who only come to this site when something is happening won't miss anything.

Do we consider spanning out specific threads for specific threats? For instance "December 1-3rd Winter Storm Discussion." There will not be many in a given season most years it might not be too difficult to do.

I think that would be good. If the separate thread is threat-specific, it could be the analysis thread, while the main winter thread remains under the purpose of general discussion. That would probably make it a lot easier for archive purposes too, so those who might want to look at analyses of previous winter storms dont have to sift through 400 pages in order to find it.

[TheProfessor]

Initially I agreed with you, but the more I thought about it, the more "when there is a tropical threat" became the operative phrase. In the Active Storms forum, when there are threats, there are so many people and so much dialogue that chatter really can overwhelm analyses, and I fully support the separation of content. Until we have an active storm, models, speculation, and general chatter are still part of the thread, in the Talking Tropics forum.

I tend to see the Winter Weather board as more similar to the Talking Tropics board than the Active Storms one. Much of our time in this particular forum is spent on speculation and watching model runs for storms that have come nowhere close to establishing themselves yet, and when real threats do arise, the topic gets back on track quickly. Although I'm not the biggest fan of posts full of complaints of boredom, I don't think there's much consequence in real analysis being overshadowed when there are no imminent threats. Those who care to go in-depth will see it, and outsiders who only come to this site when something is happening won't miss anything.

Do we consider spanning out specific threads for specific threats? For instance "December 1-3rd Winter Storm Discussion." There will not be many in a given season most years it might not be too difficult to do.

I think that would be good. If the separate thread is threat-specific, it could be the analysis thread, while the main winter thread remains under the purpose of general discussion. That would probably make it a lot easier for archive purposes too, so those who might want to look at analyses of previous winter storms dont have to sift through 400 pages in order to find it.

The historian in me would love this lol.

[Cerlin]

Do we consider spanning out specific threads for specific threats? For instance "December 1-3rd Winter Storm Discussion." There will not be many in a given season most years it might not be too difficult to do.

I think that would be good. If the separate thread is threat-specific, it could be the analysis thread, while the main winter thread remains under the purpose of general discussion. That would probably make it a lot easier for archive purposes too, so those who might want to look at analyses of previous winter storms dont have to sift through 400 pages in order to find it.

The historian in me would love this lol.

I support this motion as well. I’ve gone back countless times to previous winter threats to study some of the early outlooks on how major storms have looked and it would’ve been super beneficial if it didn’t mean sifting through hundred of pages.

[Haris]

Initially I agreed with you, but the more I thought about it, the more "when there is a tropical threat" became the operative phrase. In the Active Storms forum, when there are threats, there are so many people and so much dialogue that chatter really can overwhelm analyses, and I fully support the separation of content. Until we have an active storm, models, speculation, and general chatter are still part of the thread, in the Talking Tropics forum.

I tend to see the Winter Weather board as more similar to the Talking Tropics board than the Active Storms one. Much of our time in this particular forum is spent on speculation and watching model runs for storms that have come nowhere close to establishing themselves yet, and when real threats do arise, the topic gets back on track quickly. Although I'm not the biggest fan of posts full of complaints of boredom, I don't think there's much consequence in real analysis being overshadowed when there are no imminent threats. Those who care to go in-depth will see it, and outsiders who only come to this site when something is happening won't miss anything.

Do we consider spanning out specific threads for specific threats? For instance "December 1-3rd Winter Storm Discussion." There will not be many in a given season most years it might not be too difficult to do.

I think that would be good. If the separate thread is threat-specific, it could be the analysis thread, while the main winter thread remains under the purpose of general discussion. That would probably make it a lot easier for archive purposes too, so those who might want to look at analyses of previous winter storms dont have to sift through 400 pages in order to find it.

I ENDORSE this idea! Yes!

[Cpv17]

I have a question. If there’s a ridge in the SE, then why’s there so much precipitation there? The models are hammering that region with crazy rain totals.

[Brent]

I have a question. If there’s a ridge in the SE, then why’s there so much precipitation there? The models are hammering that region with crazy rain totals.

Seriously now just a couple days ago the GFS had snow totals this high in some areas over there

[Cerlin]

Did the weather just decide to throw out all of its special tricks for this year just to screw with meteorologists or something?

[weatherdude1108]

Do we consider spanning out specific threads for specific threats? For instance "December 1-3rd Winter Storm Discussion." There will not be many in a given season most years it might not be too difficult to do.

I think that would be good. If the separate thread is threat-specific, it could be the analysis thread, while the main winter thread remains under the purpose of general discussion. That would probably make it a lot easier for archive purposes too, so those who might want to look at analyses of previous winter storms dont have to sift through 400 pages in order to find it.

I ENDORSE this idea! Yes!

I am in favor of this as well.

[orangeblood]

GFS and its ensembles are beginning to trend back towards what it was showing several days ago...a deeper/further south system into Texas, this also allows for a stronger frontal passage and more precip under the right front quadrant of the digging trough! GEFS has several members showing an intense band of frozen precip breaking out Tuesday into Wednesday from Abilene to Wichita Falls, still way too early to know where/if this band will materialize but a good trend nonetheless!

Also, both GFS and Euro showing a 1040 HP crossing the Canadian border late Sunday night!

[Cerlin]

GFS and its ensembles are beginning to trend back towards what it was showing several days ago...a deeper/further south system into Texas, this also allows for a stronger frontal passage and more precip under the right front quadrant of the digging trough! GEFS has several members showing an intense band of frozen precip breaking out Tuesday into Wednesday from Abilene to Wichita Falls, still way too early to know where/if this band will materialize but a good trend nonetheless!

Also, both GFS and Euro showing a 1040 HP crossing the Canadian border late Sunday night!

http://i64.tinypic.com/2hodb9j.jpg

Hm...models show it in long range, drop it in mid range, and then start to show it again...where have I seen this before?