Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Portastorm]

Based on what I am reading online from the so-called experts, it appears that we (Texas) are in for a mild period from the middle of December until New Years. But then it's looking like the Arctic hammer may drop and January could be a wild one. We shall see.

[gboudx]

Gosh I hope that doesn't mean another warm Christmas. As of now, I'm simply dreaming of a cool Christmas, forget it being white.

[Brent]

Based on what I am reading online from the so-called experts, it appears that we (Texas) are in for a mild period from the middle of December until New Years. But then it's looking like the Arctic hammer may drop and January could be a wild one. We shall see.

boo

[Portastorm]

Based on what I am reading online from the so-called experts, it appears that we (Texas) are in for a mild period from the middle of December until New Years. But then it's looking like the Arctic hammer may drop and January could be a wild one. We shall see.

boo

But Brent, wouldn't you trade a mild two weeks in December for a rocking-and-rolling January and February?

[gpsnowman]

Based on what I am reading online from the so-called experts, it appears that we (Texas) are in for a mild period from the middle of December until New Years. But then it's looking like the Arctic hammer may drop and January could be a wild one. We shall see.

boo

But Brent, wouldn't you trade a mild two weeks in December for a rocking-and-rolling January and February?

I get what Brent is saying. I am so ready for a big snowstorm also and patience is wearing thin. Maybe two mild weeks in February and a rocking-and-rolling December and January. Get the ball rollin early!!!!!

[Brent]

boo

But Brent, wouldn't you trade a mild two weeks in December for a rocking-and-rolling January and February?

I get what Brent is saying. I am so ready for a big snowstorm also and patience is wearing thin. Maybe two mild weeks in February and a rocking-and-rolling December and January. Get the ball rollin early!!!!!

if early December would deliver like people have been saying I wouldn't mind a moderation

but I have doubts and I don't wanna be waiting around til winter is half over for a snowstorm that given our luck lately may not even happen

[DFWLady]

But Brent, wouldn't you trade a mild two weeks in December for a rocking-and-rolling January and February?

I get what Brent is saying. I am so ready for a big snowstorm also and patience is wearing thin. Maybe two mild weeks in February and a rocking-and-rolling December and January. Get the ball rollin early!!!!!

if early December would deliver like people have been saying I wouldn't mind a moderation

but I have doubts and I don't wanna be waiting around til winter is half over for a snowstorm that given our luck lately may not even happen

I'll be selfish! I'd like early December to deliver and a rocking and rolling January and February lol! I really hope this winter is much better than last winter! I've been watching the models but this far not alot that I'm seeing! Then again I really just look at the Euro, Canadian, and US models lol. But fingers crossed!

[Brent]

I get what Brent is saying. I am so ready for a big snowstorm also and patience is wearing thin. Maybe two mild weeks in February and a rocking-and-rolling December and January. Get the ball rollin early!!!!!

if early December would deliver like people have been saying I wouldn't mind a moderation

but I have doubts and I don't wanna be waiting around til winter is half over for a snowstorm that given our luck lately may not even happen

I'll be selfish! I'd like early December to deliver and a rocking and rolling January and February lol! I really hope this winter is much better than last winter! I've been watching the models but this far not alot that I'm seeing! Then again I really just look at the Euro, Canadian, and US models lol. But fingers crossed!

it can't really be any worse, watching snow miss to the south repeatedly is the worst lol

I do like the signs for the winter for sure, but I want some setups to start appearing...

[Ralph's Weather]

The models are still wildly different for next week, heck even the early week system has huge differences between models. I still think that the late week system has a lot of promise. Whether it turns out to be 30 or 50 we do look to be in for a good rain with models continuing to trend wetter for next week, yay -PNA.

[JDawg512]

The models are still wildly different for next week, heck even the early week system has huge differences between models. I still think that the late week system has a lot of promise. Whether it turns out to be 30 or 50 we do look to be in for a good rain with models continuing to trend wetter for next week, yay -PNA.

I sure hope so, been seeing more fire weather concerns in the EWX discussions. I have been pretty busy the last few months so I don't get a chance to follow up on the forum the way I would like. Its expected even during Modoki El Niños that there are periods of dry weather in between the long stretches of cool and wet, but this is more than a period of dryness. Starting to feel more like a La Niña pattern with dry fronts, moisture never has the time to return enough for anything significant, storm systems too far to the north. Let's hope the rest of the winter doesn't continue like this...

[Ralph's Weather]

The models are still wildly different for next week, heck even the early week system has huge differences between models. I still think that the late week system has a lot of promise. Whether it turns out to be 30 or 50 we do look to be in for a good rain with models continuing to trend wetter for next week, yay -PNA.

I sure hope so, been seeing more fire weather concerns in the EWX discussions. I have been pretty busy the last few months so I don't get a chance to follow up on the forum the way I would like. Its expected even during Modoki El Niños that there are periods of dry weather in between the long stretches of cool and wet, but this is more than a period of dryness. Starting to feel more like a La Niña pattern with dry fronts, moisture never has the time to return enough for anything significant, storm systems too far to the north. Let's hope the rest of the winter doesn't continue like this...

The weekend storm looks to cross along the US/MX border so I do not think we are talking about a dry storm at all. The question with it is how far south it can stay. The is the best case scenario with a possible closed low staying south of the border until it reaches TX. If this is an I-40 storm then some storms and that's about it.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Going to be negative nancy here, but something i've noticed and do not like is ho much the 1+2 region has warmed. I think for us in Texas, its vital this region be cool. I could be off some, but a warm 1+2 region promotes a 500 MB high near Mexico which can keep ULL's from digging down deep into Texas.

Open to criticism on this analysis, but looking at SST map and the current runs of the GFS, you can see how the ULL's are digging deep enough.

[Cpv17]

I think they have this too far east..

[Ralph's Weather]

Storms tonight then a nice weekend then a trailing shortwave on Monday. It would not take much amplification for this trailing shortwave to spit some flurries over N and N TX on Monday. Then most of next week looks cool with multiple morning freezes. Rain return Friday into Saturday and maybe Sunday. Much of the state looks to see 1-3" of rain from this. Up in OK and KS this could begin as a decent ice storm. In TX there could be a changeover to snow late Saturday. The 8th is going to be a very interesting day to watch on the models, but the 3rd is also sneaky.

[Ralph's Weather]

As the Fall thread is buzzing about, the Euro ensembles show some hefty snow totals for northern TX next Saturday.

I did some quick calcs on the latest Euro ensembles next weekend.

For western N TX, 68% show snow with 20% showing over 3 inches.
For DFW, 40% show snow with 20% showing over an inch.
For the Tyler area, 24% show snow.
For northern NE TX, 48% show snow with 2 members showing over a foot.

I am not sure how weather.us accounts for sleet and or ice so some of these totals especially out west could be overdone if this is not just snow.

[Brent]

really hoping we can start this thread off officially with a bang for the storm next weekend. Definitely gonna be a chilly leadup.

[Ntxw]

We are now good to go for DJF! May it be a long, cold, and snowy winter! Discuss away. Thread will remain open till at least February 28th. This is the bread and butter of the year for us after waiting 9 agonizing months.

[Brent]

Well we made it! Its the best time of the year!

[Haris]

Rest in peace to an honorable true American leader, George HW Bush.

And back to weather, some GEFS members show ice in CTX

[weatherdude1108]

Woohoo! We're here!

Let it SNOW!