Texas Winter 2018-2019

[bubba hotep]

Looks like a bit of a South shift of the qpf footprint on the early 12z runs. Looks better for higher totals in DFW.

[bubba hotep]

From FWD:


Most winter weather events in North Texas involve an arctic air
mass, but this event will be entirely driven by dynamic cooling
within the core of this powerful cyclone. Despite the intensity of
the system, the snowfall forecast is by no means a slam dunk; it
may be more akin to a blindfolded slam dunk that could go terribly
wrong. Guidance is in remarkably good agreement with the large
scale features, including the track of the 850mb low. But with a
potentially unprecedented scenario within the working history of
numerical guidance, this consensus can`t preclude a deviation in
the eventual path. Regardless, confidence continues to improve in
accumulating snow in our western zones late this afternoon and
into tonight.

[orangeblood]

From FWD:


Most winter weather events in North Texas involve an arctic air
mass, but this event will be entirely driven by dynamic cooling
within the core of this powerful cyclone. Despite the intensity of
the system, the snowfall forecast is by no means a slam dunk; it
may be more akin to a blindfolded slam dunk that could go terribly
wrong. Guidance is in remarkably good agreement with the large
scale features, including the track of the 850mb low. But with a
potentially unprecedented scenario within the working history of
numerical guidance, this consensus can`t preclude a deviation in
the eventual path. Regardless, confidence continues to improve in
accumulating snow in our western zones late this afternoon and
into tonight.

hahaha, yep, they nailed it! The negative anomalies with this system are incredible and like they said, an almost unprecedented setup. Good test case for the models!

[Ralph's Weather]

From FWD:


Most winter weather events in North Texas involve an arctic air
mass, but this event will be entirely driven by dynamic cooling
within the core of this powerful cyclone. Despite the intensity of
the system, the snowfall forecast is by no means a slam dunk; it
may be more akin to a blindfolded slam dunk that could go terribly
wrong. Guidance is in remarkably good agreement with the large
scale features, including the track of the 850mb low. But with a
potentially unprecedented scenario within the working history of
numerical guidance, this consensus can`t preclude a deviation in
the eventual path. Regardless, confidence continues to improve in
accumulating snow in our western zones late this afternoon and
into tonight.

Love this and so accurate.

[losf1981]

It went from sunny and clear sky to foggy and overcast in the blink of an eye here in WF.

[lukem]

Heavy snow in Midland. HUGE flakes. After watching the NAM 3km models yesterday, I warned everyone at our Christmas party last night that we were going to get a major snowstorm today. They all laughed at me. Feeling vindicated this morning!

[Portastorm]

Heavy snow in Midland. HUGE flakes. After watching the NAM 3km models yesterday, I warned everyone at our Christmas party last night that we were going to get a major snowstorm today. They all laughed at me. Feeling vindicated this morning!

That'll teach 'em! Storm2Kers for the win.

Enjoy the snow, luke.

[Yukon Cornelius]

The forecast calls for the temp to drop to 40 by 4 PM. My station is already saying 42. It’ll be interesting to see what the actual temp is later this afternoon and if there’s more cold air than models suggested.

[rwfromkansas]

What's everyone's favorite radar site for winter precip that seems accurate? I usually use Radarscope, but looking for a more "pretty" map I can look at on the computer.

[jaguars_22]

The FV3 GFS shows snow coming close to austin!!! Who know maybe PortaStorm will see some surprises... Just send it further south to Victoria after you get all you want!

[dhweather]

What's everyone's favorite radar site for winter precip that seems accurate? I usually use Radarscope, but looking for a more "pretty" map I can look at on the computer.

I just use radarscope.

[Portastorm]

The FV3 GFS shows snow coming close to austin!!! Who know maybe PortaStorm will see some surprises... Just send it further south to Victoria after you get all you want!

I've got Champ the Charger ... the official chase vehicle for the Portastorm Weather Center, gassed up and ready to go just in case!

[dhweather]

The 12Z GFS indicates above normal temps for the rest of the month. Well above normal around the end of the month. La Nada.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Looking at the HRRR, its showing rain, when if you look at the soundings, it will be snowing. I think the area of snowfall will be more widespread than models are showing.

[Haris]

Hrrr has the big snow fairly close to Travis Co.

Might head out on a small chase 15-30 miles W .

[rwfromkansas]

The ONLY time I miss my five years living in Midland is days like this. It's so much easier to get snow and cold there than DFW. But, the rest of the year....I will take the 30 inches of rain over 13 every day.

It's interesting looking at the models to see the surface low and the 500 low positions and how it impacts things. I am hoping for a further east surface low and 500 low going a bit further north. Definitely learning some things on this board. Much more activity here than the one I used to frequent...

Edit to add that videos from Odessa/Midland show pure snow, no rain mixed in.

[orangeblood]

Looking at the HRRR, its showing rain, when if you look at the soundings, it will be snowing. I think the area of snowfall will be more widespread than models are showing.

Yep, the ULL really won't start deepening until this afternoon, at that point will have a much better gauge on accuracy comparing to surface observations. The snow area depiction on the short range models look to be entirely elevation based....anything over about 1200 ft appears as snow for majority of the event!

[nathanc1969]

San Angelo now in a winter weather advisory for up to 3", Still only 43 degrees with rain.....so will be interesting to see if the temp drops enough before the precip moves east.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

The 12Z GFS indicates above normal temps for the rest of the month. Well above normal around the end of the month. La Nada.

And the FV3 is the exact opposite. It’s a good 25-40 degrees colder each run.

[TheProfessor]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanal ... sector=15# By far the best site to track where the low is and how it has been tracking.