Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Texas Snow]

Ugly!!!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019011618/gfs_z500a_namer_53.png

Still a rookie—is that temperature or pressure?

500 level thickness are the lines and colors are anomalies

[Brent]

Ugly!!!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019011618/gfs_z500a_namer_53.png

Still a rookie—is that temperature or pressure?

temperature anomalies, red is warmer blue is colder

shows the biggest cold east of us

but of course its the day 16 GFS if it showed a blizzard it'd be no more likely

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Ugly!!!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019011618/gfs_z500a_namer_53.png

Lol at posting 384 frames... it will change 20 times between now and then

[Lagreeneyes03]

As ive been reading all of the posts regarding this weekend I never really paid attention to the exactly how much the projected temps have risen until looking at the NWS forecast. Sunday was an eye opener. A high in the low 30s is now a high of 45.

I know the cold isn't even impressive anymore I really hope the second half of met winter is better than the first half was.

I knew it! Cold pushed out again...and again...and again. "Just a cold rain".

[Brent]

Oh but wait the 18z FV GFS has a winter storm next Wednesday

[bubba hotep]

Oh but wait the 18z FV GFS has a winter storm next Wednesday

http://i66.tinypic.com/eskztj.png

Actually, a step back from 12z

[Brent]

Oh but wait the 18z FV GFS has a winter storm next Wednesday

http://i66.tinypic.com/eskztj.png

Actually, a step back from 12z

of course... been so many model runs I can't keep up with them.

[TheProfessor]

Welp guys I might be getting ptsd from the 2013 Ice storm this weekend. the GFS, FV3, and Icon are all north of me with the snow axis and drop a quite a bit of ice on me. The Icon in particular drops 2 inches of liquid QPF while surface temps are in the low 20s. Crossing my fingers that doesn't happen lol.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Oh but wait the 18z FV GFS has a winter storm next Wednesday

http://i66.tinypic.com/eskztj.png

It’s had it a few times now but this is the first time it’s had it in consecutive runs.

Would be something if the FV3 scores a coup

[South Texas Storms]

Oh but wait the 18z FV GFS has a winter storm next Wednesday

http://i66.tinypic.com/eskztj.png

It’s had it a few times now but this is the first time it’s had it in consecutive runs.

Would be something if the FV3 scores a coup

It doesn't look that different from the Euro, so you can't really discount it. If we can get that system to dig a big more into Mexico, we could be looking at a decent winter storm for portions of the state. Some of the Euro Ensemble members were indicating that.

[Ralph's Weather]

Ugly!!!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019011618/gfs_z500a_namer_53.png

Still a rookie—is that temperature or pressure?

temperature anomalies, red is warmer blue is colder

shows the biggest cold east of us

but of course its the day 16 GFS if it showed a blizzard it'd be no more likely

That is anomalies in 500mb pressure not temperature. Just fyi. It is very likely that map is very wrong. I look for the PNA to trend negative over time not positive as that map indicates. Ensembles still show a trend toward -PNA.

[Cerlin]

Still a rookie—is that temperature or pressure?

temperature anomalies, red is warmer blue is colder

shows the biggest cold east of us

but of course its the day 16 GFS if it showed a blizzard it'd be no more likely

That is anomalies in 500mb pressure not temperature. Just fyi. It is very likely that map is very wrong. I look for the PNA to trend negative over time not positive as that map indicates. Ensembles still show a trend toward -PNA.

I was gonna say I didn’t expect a PNA shift like that to be a genuine solution.

[orangeblood]

Oh but wait the 18z FV GFS has a winter storm next Wednesday

http://i66.tinypic.com/eskztj.png

It’s had it a few times now but this is the first time it’s had it in consecutive runs.

Would be something if the FV3 scores a coup

It doesn't look that different from the Euro, so you can't really discount it. If we can get that system to dig a big more into Mexico, we could be looking at a decent winter storm for portions of the state. Some of the Euro Ensemble members were indicating that.

Unfortunately the latest GFS ensembles provide zero backing for next week, bone dry!!! They’ve been trending drier and drier

[starsfan65]

It’s had it a few times now but this is the first time it’s had it in consecutive runs.

Would be something if the FV3 scores a coup

It doesn't look that different from the Euro, so you can't really discount it. If we can get that system to dig a big more into Mexico, we could be looking at a decent winter storm for portions of the state. Some of the Euro Ensemble members were indicating that.

Unfortunately the latest GFS ensembles provide zero backing for next week, bone dry!!! They’ve been trending drier and drier

How?

[bubba hotep]

Euro, EPS, Control, FV3 and Icon all have winter wx in around DFW. Can for once can one of these models be right? The Euro appears to have a D4-7 snow bias across N. Texas, it has shown it a number of times only to pull it back over the last couple of years lol It appears to hang back too much moisture in the cold air, it doesn't seem to recognize the drying of the column.

Anyway, 18z Icon

[Cerlin]

Euro, EPS, Control, FV3 and Icon all have winter wx in around DFW. Can for once can one of these models be right? The Euro appears to have a D4-7 snow bias across N. Texas, it has shown it a number of times only to pull it back over the last couple of years lol It appears to hang back too much moisture in the cold air, it doesn't seem to recognize the drying of the column.

Anyway, 18z Icon

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2019011618/icon_asnow_scus_29.png

I have a feeling our day is coming soon. Snow miser’s gonna tear down that wall by pelting it with snowballs...let’s see if one of those can get thrown right on DFW and give an inch or two.

[SGJ]

Welp guys I might be getting ptsd from the 2013 Ice storm this weekend. the GFS, FV3, and Icon are all north of me with the snow axis and drop a quite a bit of ice on me. The Icon in particular drops 2 inches of liquid QPF while surface temps are in the low 20s. Crossing my fingers that doesn't happen lol.

I lived in Columbus for years. My parents live 3 counties (North and East) from Franklin County. I'm wondering how hard they might get hit there and I've told them to prepare. Sure hoping no one gets an ice storm!

[TheProfessor]

Welp guys I might be getting ptsd from the 2013 Ice storm this weekend. the GFS, FV3, and Icon are all north of me with the snow axis and drop a quite a bit of ice on me. The Icon in particular drops 2 inches of liquid QPF while surface temps are in the low 20s. Crossing my fingers that doesn't happen lol.

I lived in Columbus for years. My parents live 3 counties (North and East) from Franklin County. I'm wondering how hard they might get hit there and I've told them to prepare. Sure hoping no one gets an ice storm!

Areas north and east of Franklin are more likely to get snow than ice(though the GFS and ICON do try to get ice up there lol) but I'd say as beginning gauge they should expect 6-12" of snow in that area. I'd direct your parents to their local weather forecast office, which I believe should be Cleveland. https://www.weather.gov/cle/

[Brent]

Euro, EPS, Control, FV3 and Icon all have winter wx in around DFW. Can for once can one of these models be right? The Euro appears to have a D4-7 snow bias across N. Texas, it has shown it a number of times only to pull it back over the last couple of years lol It appears to hang back too much moisture in the cold air, it doesn't seem to recognize the drying of the column.

Anyway, 18z Icon

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2019011618/icon_asnow_scus_29.png

I have a feeling our day is coming soon. Snow miser’s gonna tear down that wall by pelting it with snowballs...let’s see if one of those can get thrown right on DFW and give an inch or two.

I find it hard to believe we won't get ours soon... this streak just cannot keep going...

[SGJ]

Welp guys I might be getting ptsd from the 2013 Ice storm this weekend. the GFS, FV3, and Icon are all north of me with the snow axis and drop a quite a bit of ice on me. The Icon in particular drops 2 inches of liquid QPF while surface temps are in the low 20s. Crossing my fingers that doesn't happen lol.

I lived in Columbus for years. My parents live 3 counties (North and East) from Franklin County. I'm wondering how hard they might get hit there and I've told them to prepare. Sure hoping no one gets an ice storm!

Areas north and east of Franklin are more likely to get snow than ice(though the GFS and ICON do try to get ice up there lol) but I'd say as beginning gauge they should expect 6-12" of snow in that area. I'd direct your parents to their local weather forecast office, which I believe should be Cleveland. https://www.weather.gov/cle/

Thanks for the link. If they get 6" to 12" of snow...that is going to be overwhelming. They had ice overnight, out of the blue. No warning. Schools that never ever close did so today. Makes me hope forecasters don't also underestimate or miss the potential of the ice / snow poised to strike there this weekend. Guess we will see! Good luck and enjoy Columbus. It is the BEST city in Ohio!