Texas Winter 2018-2019

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Cerlin
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3361 Postby Cerlin » Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:07 pm

Quixotic wrote:
Cerlin wrote:
Quixotic wrote:If there are a lot of newbies around, perhaps a discussion about the 540 line and 850 mb temps is in order.

That would be beneficial to me. I’m an aspiring meteorologist but I have zero experience and I’m using this forum (and other resources) to gain exposure to meteorology.


Great honesty. You’re golden.

540 line and the 850 0 line are basically demarcations of snow. If the 540 line (upper level) is over or south of your area, Snow is possible. 850 0 line is indicative of wwx. If you have the combo, well, hip hiop hooray. As bubbahotep pointed out though, soundings ( which indicate temps, dewpoints and winds throughout the atmosphere) are a better indicator. If you get used to this basic concept: progress by calculating thicknesses. That’s when you really have a grasp on what will happen. I’ve seen rain at 20F. I’ve seen snow at 50F. Keep that layer in mind and you’ll be good. Smarter people than me can explain it. I’m just bad at jargon. Best of luck to you.

That makes sense. I’m sure as I see it happen as time goes on I’ll get even more used to it. I’m more of a “throw yourself out there and learn by doing” kinda guy so it’s good to get some genuine, directed-towards-me info sometimes. You explained it well, thank you!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3362 Postby Ralph's Weather » Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:47 pm

Lagreeneyes03 wrote:
Haris wrote:[url]https://i.ibb.co/k0ChrrV/Screenshot-at-Jan-16-20-40-57.png [/url]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/1Q4mfdv/Screenshot-at-Jan-16-20-40-22.png [/url]

Off the topic but I have seen so many TV mets for the sake of oversimplifying things call this upper low the snowmaker for the weekend across the midwest and NE.

If you look at vort, its the seed S of Alaska that undercuts it....

The low is moving N!


Do we want it to move N? I always thought if the L was south of the 'Plex, we got winter weather. If not, "Cold Rain".
He is referring to the low off of the NW US coast. Yes for snow this weekend we need the low to stay south.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3363 Postby Quixotic » Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:53 pm

dhweather wrote:
Quixotic wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:Both the 18z GEFS and 21z SREF throw up zeros for DFW snow totals with the weekend system.


This is a harbinger of things to come. The second and third systems are what I’m watching. These borderline systems mean we are on the front and eventually, we will win the battle.

Glancing blows are indicative of a +NAO. The NAO is scheduled to tank. A central trough is likely.

People romance about 13-14 but it was +NAO all the way. We got multiple quick hitting bouts of snow.

Watch the pacific. A negative EPO and/or WPO will giveus a NW component to work with. The STJ? Well that’s pure gravy.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3364 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:01 am

Quixotic wrote:
dhweather wrote:
Quixotic wrote:


This is a harbinger of things to come. The second and third systems are what I’m watching. These borderline systems mean we are on the front and eventually, we will win the battle.

Glancing blows are indicative of a +NAO. The NAO is scheduled to tank. A central trough is likely.

People romance about 13-14 but it was +NAO all the way. We got multiple quick hitting bouts of snow.

Watch the pacific. A negative EPO and/or WPO will giveus a NW component to work with. The STJ? Well that’s pure gravy.


About when do you think we could start seeing some really cold air here in Texas? I’m talking about teens and single digits for north Texas and mid 20’s where I’m at near Houston.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3365 Postby Brent » Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:09 am

Cpv17 wrote:
Quixotic wrote:
dhweather wrote:


This is a harbinger of things to come. The second and third systems are what I’m watching. These borderline systems mean we are on the front and eventually, we will win the battle.

Glancing blows are indicative of a +NAO. The NAO is scheduled to tank. A central trough is likely.

People romance about 13-14 but it was +NAO all the way. We got multiple quick hitting bouts of snow.

Watch the pacific. A negative EPO and/or WPO will giveus a NW component to work with. The STJ? Well that’s pure gravy.


About when do you think we could start seeing some really cold air here in Texas? I’m talking about teens and single digits for north Texas and mid 20’s where I’m at near Houston.


0z GFS is pretty close for January 29th lol

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3366 Postby Quixotic » Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:17 am

Cpv17 wrote:
Quixotic wrote:
dhweather wrote:


This is a harbinger of things to come. The second and third systems are what I’m watching. These borderline systems mean we are on the front and eventually, we will win the battle.

Glancing blows are indicative of a +NAO. The NAO is scheduled to tank. A central trough is likely.

People romance about 13-14 but it was +NAO all the way. We got multiple quick hitting bouts of snow.

Watch the pacific. A negative EPO and/or WPO will giveus a NW component to work with. The STJ? Well that’s pure gravy.


About when do you think we could start seeing some really cold air here in Texas? I’m talking about teens and single digits for north Texas and mid 20’s where I’m at near Houston.


Honestly, you don’t need either. I’ve got four years where it was that cold ugh a positive enso: 63-63, 76-77, 77-78 and 09-10. We haven’t come close to those years yet. IF we flip in Feb or late January, well, that would be pretty different for a +ENSO. Let’s not forget the averages have been ramped up over time. The models are grasping. They may have the pattern down but not the record cold.

I’d go recent: 09-10, 14-15 and 10-11. Despite their enso differences, 10-11 didn’t get cold till Christmas Eve. 14-15 had bouts of cold but didn’t deliver until the end of February. I’ll drop 02-03 in there too.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3367 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:20 am

Brent wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Quixotic wrote:
This is a harbinger of things to come. The second and third systems are what I’m watching. These borderline systems mean we are on the front and eventually, we will win the battle.

Glancing blows are indicative of a +NAO. The NAO is scheduled to tank. A central trough is likely.

People romance about 13-14 but it was +NAO all the way. We got multiple quick hitting bouts of snow.

Watch the pacific. A negative EPO and/or WPO will giveus a NW component to work with. The STJ? Well that’s pure gravy.


About when do you think we could start seeing some really cold air here in Texas? I’m talking about teens and single digits for north Texas and mid 20’s where I’m at near Houston.


0z GFS is pretty close for January 29th lol

http://i68.tinypic.com/2dad3ef.png


The blocking is nuts the last few frames of that run lol I’m not sure if I’ve seen such blocking like that before.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3368 Postby Quixotic » Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:25 am

I’ve been shooting from the hip tonight. If I had to pick an analogue I’m going 14-15 with a less impressive front end.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3369 Postby Brent » Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:31 am

FV dropped the winter storm on Wednesday :lol: east of us

But yeah the GFS is ridiculous cold in the LR, it never ends
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3370 Postby Cerlin » Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:35 am

Brent wrote:FV dropped the winter storm on Wednesday :lol: east of us

But yeah the GFS is ridiculous cold in the LR, it never ends

The GFS is surprising me because I’m used to it always being about 20° warmer long run than all the other models, so... :double:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3371 Postby Brent » Thu Jan 17, 2019 1:13 am

Euro caves to the other models with zero snow in DFW Saturday

does still have a little snow outside the metro though unlike the NAM
Last edited by Brent on Thu Jan 17, 2019 1:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3372 Postby spencer817 » Thu Jan 17, 2019 1:13 am

EURO was all just another model trolling DFW, 35 with little to no precip. Typical and comical at this point.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3373 Postby Brent » Thu Jan 17, 2019 1:17 am

spencer817 wrote:EURO was all just another model trolling DFW, 35 with little to no precip. Typical and comical at this point.


I don't know why we even bother tbh
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3374 Postby Lagreeneyes03 » Thu Jan 17, 2019 1:18 am

Cpv17 wrote:
Quixotic wrote:
dhweather wrote:


This is a harbinger of things to come. The second and third systems are what I’m watching. These borderline systems mean we are on the front and eventually, we will win the battle.

Glancing blows are indicative of a +NAO. The NAO is scheduled to tank. A central trough is likely.

People romance about 13-14 but it was +NAO all the way. We got multiple quick hitting bouts of snow.

Watch the pacific. A negative EPO and/or WPO will giveus a NW component to work with. The STJ? Well that’s pure gravy.


About when do you think we could start seeing some really cold air here in Texas? I’m talking about teens and single digits for north Texas and mid 20’s where I’m at near Houston.


We don't want that, it will be too dry and it won't snow at all. It will be clear skies all the way. Wasted cold.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3375 Postby Cerlin » Thu Jan 17, 2019 1:18 am

:x :x :x
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3376 Postby Brent » Thu Jan 17, 2019 1:31 am

and the mid week storm is too progressive to be a winter storm

great start for the Euro tonight :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3377 Postby spencer817 » Thu Jan 17, 2019 1:32 am

No good news from the EURO op on next week's storm either, more progressive and warmer
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3378 Postby Cerlin » Thu Jan 17, 2019 1:34 am

The snow looks like it just barely misses DFW and scrapes the northern burbs via the weather.us ECMWF Significant Weather parameters...I wouldn’t rule anything out yet based on that and the fact that we’re still a few days out. Hoping for a surprise. If that low tracks just slightly more south, there could be a jackpot in store for DFW. And yes, we’ve been saying that about the last 50 storms it feels like but...it’s gotta happen sometime!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3379 Postby Brent » Thu Jan 17, 2019 1:41 am

mid week storm snowing to the coast in Louisiana on the Euro after it passes us :lol: is there like a hex around here?
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3380 Postby harp » Thu Jan 17, 2019 1:44 am

Brent wrote:mid week storm snowing to the coast in Louisiana on the Euro after it passes us :lol: is there like a hex around here?


Where in Louisiana? Thanks in advance.
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