Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Haris]

FV3 was supposed to launch tom but not anymore because of the shutdown.

It doesn’t matter though. The model is utter garbage IMO . Worse than the regular one which is a hard thing to do. It’s done so manh fantasy storms this season for the U.S . Not just TX

[stormlover2013]

yeah it showed snow the last 20 runs for today for southeast texas lol

[Cpv17]

yeah it showed snow the last 20 runs for today for southeast texas lol

We had some here in Wharton today along with sleet.

[stormlover2013]

it actually showed good snow lol, accumlation of snow.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

yeah it showed snow the last 20 runs for today for southeast texas lol

While it wasn’t measurable in SE Texas, there were white rooftops in Montgomery County and far NW Harris this morning.

[wxman57]

yeah it showed snow the last 20 runs for today for southeast texas lol

We had some here in Wharton today along with sleet.

Snow pellets (graupel) all across SE TX this morning.

[Haris]

On a bigger scale and I’ve noticed it’s done miserable across the E and NE too.

[Cpv17]

On a bigger scale and I’ve noticed it’s done miserable across the E and NE too.

All the models are garbage. They aren’t even accurate half the time within 24 hours.

[Brent]

yeah they all suck, the GFS is trash, the FV is fake news, the CMC Is the CMC, the Euro isnt what it used to be

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro EPS now has the pattern change at D10. How long does the warm up last?

[bubba hotep]

I wouldn't give the FV3 too much grief at this point. The FV3 snow maps on TT have not been making any sense, as the raw model output from the FV3 has never
really supported the totals shown on TT.

[harp]

If the models truly are such garbage, we really don't know what is going to happen then, do we?

[wxman57]

Based on projected 500mb flow in the operational models and ensembles, it's looking like the coldest of winter will occur over the next 6-9 days. Beyond then, we should see warming temps across the eastern half of the country as ridging builds over the Rockies into the Plains. The warming starts in early February. This may also shut down the snow chances for Texas this winter. Well, at least through mid February. It's possible the pattern could chance back later in February, but it's also possible that the warming trend will continue into March.

[Haris]

I’m fine with the warmer trend as long as there is heavy rain associated with it and storms (!)

[Brent]

I wouldn't give the FV3 too much grief at this point. The FV3 snow maps on TT have not been making any sense, as the raw model output from the FV3 has never
really supported the totals shown on TT.

yeah the NAM snow maps on there were always ridiculous too to be fair

[TheProfessor]

Mmm I remember the February warm up last year. I might need that this year if I'm going to be facing -10 to -20 temps next week. Hopefully I don't get 1 week of spring like I did last year though.

[dhweather]

Based on projected 500mb flow in the operational models and ensembles, it's looking like the coldest of winter will occur over the next 6-9 days. Beyond then, we should see warming temps across the eastern half of the country as ridging builds over the Rockies into the Plains. The warming starts in early February. This may also shut down the snow chances for Texas this winter. Well, at least through mid February. It's possible the pattern could chance back later in February, but it's also possible that the warming trend will continue into March.

You're probably spot on with this. It's just not in the cards for us this year, the pattern has remained progressive, so when we do get a cold shot, it's gone in a couple of days. Southerly winds return in a couple of and pow, we're back into the 50's and 60's. It's looking like a LaNada Winter.

[bubba hotep]

Based on projected 500mb flow in the operational models and ensembles, it's looking like the coldest of winter will be over the next 6-9 days. Beyond then, we should see warming temps across the eastern half of the country as ridging builds over the Rockies into the Plains. The warming starts in early February. This may also shut down the snow chances for Texas this winter. Well, at least through mid February. It's possible the pattern could chance back later in February, but it's also possible that the warming trend will continue into March.

D15 Euro EPS has almost full on N. American torch...

[Yukon Cornelius]

If the models truly are such garbage, we really don't know what is going to happen then, do we?

Nowcasting

[TeamPlayersBlue]

12z Euro EPS now has the pattern change at D10. How long does the warm up last?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-en%20s/2019012312/ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png

Sliding into Phase 6. For this time of year, the RMM shows massive ridging over the US. So, the GFS is leaning towards that. I feel like its being a bit binary with this assumption though. I know the MJO is extremely important in weather, despite so many variables, but we shall see.