Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Texas Snow]

Don't forget to check out the eclipse. Almost total right now.

We’ve been out in the hot tub for the last hour drinking and watching. I love winter lunar eclipses. So great.

Only thing better would be a layer of white on the ground.

[weatherdude1108]

Best I could do with my phone camera before and just at the peak of the lunar eclipse in Cedar Park, TX. Camera doesn't compare at all to seeing it live. Pretty awesome!

[Haris]

Here is the best one I got. Loved it!

[Brent]

the 0z Euro has zero snow for Dallas and 5 inches on the beach in Florida

er huge winter storm on the day 10 Euro... always 10 days out, ice in DFW

[Ralph's Weather]

Euro and GFS and their ensembles are very consistent with rain changing to snow Wed morning from the Hill Counrry up through NE TX. Euro maxes NW of that line and GFS SE of that line. Other models are notnl showing this.

[orangeblood]

For the Southern Plains (particularly the E/2 from OKC down to Austin eastward), you don't see many better setups for winter weather over the next 10 days....Operationals and Ensembles all show winter weather potential every 2-3 days starting Wednesday and a "Big One" potential for next week. Polar HP after Polar HP heads down in NW flow and each one brings up moisture ahead of the next one as they slide east. ENS members are the most aggressive I've seen them in a few years!! Watch the Ridge on the west NA coast, just need a little westward retrogression and things are looking even better!!

And even after this period, blocking over the top with the continued Polar HP train

[Ntxw]

A bit of jet retraction coming up will pop the EPO very negative, that's agreed upon by most of the models. Pretty impressive wavetrain in the North Pacific to send that index into the tank.

[Ralph's Weather]

Its a beautiful pattern. Exactly what we have been eagerly awaiting for months. Hopefully we get a good appetizer Wed morning.

[rwfromkansas]

Its a beautiful pattern. Exactly what we have been eagerly awaiting for months. Hopefully we get a good appetizer Wed morning.

Is it under 10 days yet?

[Portastorm]

I realize everyone is frustrated because it always seems like the "goods" get delivered in the models 10 days out. We'd all feel a lot better if the models were in agreement 72 hours out. But in reviewing this morning the ensembles for all three medium range models, you have to admit it's impressive to see such agreement in a pattern which would, theoretically, deliver the "goods" for us in the Southern Plains and Texas.

Let's hope it holds and verifies. This time.

[Ralph's Weather]

Its a beautiful pattern. Exactly what we have been eagerly awaiting for months. Hopefully we get a good appetizer Wed morning.

Is it under 10 days yet?

We are in the midst of it and it will only improve over the next couple weeks. Decent chance for some snow for a large portion of the state in under 48 hours.

[Ntxw]

I realize everyone is frustrated because it always seems like the "goods" get delivered in the models 10 days out. We'd all feel a lot better if the models were in agreement 72 hours out. But in reviewing this morning the ensembles for all three medium range models, you have to admit it's impressive to see such agreement in a pattern which would, theoretically, deliver the "goods" for us in the Southern Plains and Texas.

Let's hope it holds and verifies. This time.

It's actually playing out well. We emphasized after the the 20th the broad scale pattern would change and that Canada would get cold, reverse of the first half the month. That step happened and is happening. Then we noted we will need a mechanism to drive it, still taking time. Sure the individual events haven't panned out for us (if you took surface maps on models as gospel) but that's small when looking at the bigger picture.

[bubba hotep]

Another pull back in the 00z Euro EPS, that now makes 3 runs in a row that it has shifted away from higher heights in the SW. Also, notice the adjustments across the Pacific.

1/20 00z for 00z 1/30



1/21 00z for 00z 1/30

[Ralph's Weather]

Another pull back in the 00z Euro EPS, that now makes 3 runs in a row that it has shifted away from higher heights in the SW. Also, notice the adjustments across the Pacific.

1/20 00z for 00z 1/30

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2019012000/ecmwf-ens_z500a_npac_11.png

1/21 00z for 00z 1/30

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2019012100/ecmwf-ens_z500a_npac_10.png

That is a nice looking trend and fits with what we have expected. I would love for the trend to continue so we can get a true SW upper low, but any push into the SW allows for a STJ connection.

[bubba hotep]

Another pull back in the 00z Euro EPS, that now makes 3 runs in a row that it has shifted away from higher heights in the SW. Also, notice the adjustments across the Pacific.

1/20 00z for 00z 1/30

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2019012000/ecmwf-ens_z500a_npac_11.png

1/21 00z for 00z 1/30

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2019012100/ecmwf-ens_z500a_npac_10.png

That is a nice looking trend and fits with what we have expected. I would love for the trend to continue so we can get a true SW upper low, but any push into the SW allows for a STJ connection.

It fits somewhat better with what we might expect during +ENSO January but this doesn't account for the SSW. I wish the NOAA sites were up so that I could pull the +ENSO P6 & SSW composites, oh well.

MJO



500mb P6 +ENSO January



500mb All P6 January

[bubba hotep]

The 06z FV3 does a good job of demonstrating how we can get snow in N. Texas with an unfavorable location of the TPV. It rotates a S/W around the periphery of the TPV with a favorable jet streak.

[South Texas Storms]

12 Canadian shows a major winter storm from north TX to the Deep South next week. Several inches of snow from Dallas to Alabama, with near a foot in northern Louisiana.

The Euro ensembles seem to be hinting at this area seeing a winter storm risk in 7-9 days.

This would make sense as the PNA is dropping during this time, favoring the trough axis shifting westward across the Plains and into the Rockies.

[Haris]

Several EPS members show light snow in C/E TX Wed AM. NWS has not mentioned it once. 90% have some snow in the eps members.

[bubba hotep]

12 Canadian shows a major winter storm from north TX to the Deep South next week. Several inches of snow from Dallas to Alabama, with near a foot in northern Louisiana.

The Euro ensembles seem to be hinting at this area seeing a winter storm risk in 7-9 days.

I noticed that, it's about a 25% cluster but a lot of variability within the cluster.

[orangeblood]

12 Canadian shows a major winter storm from north TX to the Deep South next week. Several inches of snow from Dallas to Alabama, with near a foot in northern Louisiana.

The Euro ensembles seem to be hinting at this area seeing a winter storm risk in 7-9 days.

I really hope the GFS isn't the leader like it like has been over the past several weeks showing the continued SW low heights in the 9-10 day range only to progress the trough east as we can closer, wiping out any potential southern plains storm....it's starting to show that trend again in the 12Z run

Have to get the West Coast ridge west or massive EPO tank to have any chance - in order for that to happen: trough right over Hawaii or just due east is key..if trough is too far east we're toast!